The Ringer - Everything You Need to Know About Kyler Murray’s NFL Decision2019-02-13T06:20:00-05:00http://www.theringer.com/rss/stream/179846362019-02-13T06:20:00-05:002019-02-13T06:20:00-05:00We’re Not Ready to Bury the Kyler Murray–Cardinals Theories Just Yet
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<p>Sure, Kliff Kingsbury said Tuesday that Josh Rosen was “our guy.” But after Murray signed on with the Arizona head coach’s agent this week, we can’t forget about the previous comments Kingsbury made about the dual-sport star.</p> <p id="0U9PlO">Prophecies are often mistaken for coincidences, and this seems to be the fate of the Arizona Cardinals. In October, then–Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury was talking up an opponent, as coaches often do, when he said Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray was so good that <a href="https://twitter.com/EricKellyTV/status/1056683979326271489">he’d take him first overall in the NFL draft if he had the chance</a>. Just a few months later, Kingsbury was hired as Cardinals head coach. Suddenly Kingsbury <em>did </em>have the first pick in the draft. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="iPNcMK"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Decision Made: Kyler Murray Has Officially Chosen Football","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/11/18220709/kyler-murray-chooses-football-nfl-draft-2019"},{"title":"Let Kliff Kingsbury Draft Kyler Murray and Turn Arizona Into an Air Raid Fever Dream","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/10/18177705/kliff-kingsbury-kyler-murray-arizona-cardinals-draft-pick"},{"title":"Kyler Murray’s NFL Draft Declaration Is an Embarrassment for the A’s—and Baseball","url":"https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18182764/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-oakland-athletics"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="kYLJUm">There’s one snag: The Cardinals already have a quarterback. Arizona traded up five spots to take UCLA’s Josh Rosen no. 10 overall last April, planting them firmly outside the quarterback market. In most scenarios that would be the end of the story. Kingsbury’s words were nothing more than a bewildering coincidence—until this week, which has made his interview look like a self-fulfilling prophecy.</p>
<p id="V0qy4l">On Monday, Murray, the Heisman-winning quarterback, who was drafted by the Oakland Athletics last year, officially announced he was going to focus on being an NFL QB (and, implicitly, not play baseball, probably). </p>
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<p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/kGePeWhrId">pic.twitter.com/kGePeWhrId</a></p>— Kyler Murray (@TheKylerMurray) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKylerMurray/status/1095016263473119232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2019</a>
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<p id="OMptXk">One day later, on Tuesday, Murray hired agent Erik Burkhardt—the same agent that represents Kingsbury. Suddenly there was a lot of smoke and only a few possible sources of fire:</p>
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<li id="tGRmaE">It’s another coincidence (he’s clearly a good agent).</li>
<li id="mWRAUr">Kyler and his family chose Kingsbury’s agent to raise the odds of him getting drafted first overall.</li>
<li id="ieMssV">While Murray was deciding between baseball and football (and shopping around for an NFL agent) he received word from <em>someone</em> that he had a good chance to be the first overall pick if he chose football.</li>
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<p id="UiPwp2">However Murray and Kingsbury came to have the same agent, it’s certainly inviting speculation that the team will take Murray and trade Rosen. The Cardinals are clearly sensitive to the rumor mill. The team responded on its official Twitter account …</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Y’all are having fun with speculation, but... <a href="https://t.co/dy4NbJ82iB">pic.twitter.com/dy4NbJ82iB</a></p>— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) <a href="https://twitter.com/AZCardinals/status/1095434489470214149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2019</a>
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<p id="KQCiFL">… and the Cardinals website also pasted the story across its official team website.</p>
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<p id="Wu33Ik">Teams make these kinds of statements all the time, and often these promises are trusted, betrayed, and then forgotten. Ted Leonsis, the owner of the Washington Wizards, traded Otto Porter Jr. less than two weeks after saying <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/01/31/ted-leonsis-says-wizards-are-not-trading-john-wall-bradley-beal-or-otto-porter-jr/?noredirect=on">the team would not trade Otto Porter Jr</a>. The Clippers traded Blake Griffin six months after they made <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clippers-employees-t-shirt-blake-griffin-2017-7">a pitch to him in free agency</a> that included raising his jersey into the rafters while employees <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcJSpearsESPN/status/881202410907029504">wore shirts</a> with his face next to Martin Luther King Jr., Nelson Mandela, and Abraham Lincoln. </p>
<p id="uRUtRw">The point is that things change, and the statements by Kingsbury and team president Michael Bidwill reflected that. Given the opportunity to throw water on these fires, both men kept a few embers burning.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AZCardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AZCardinals</a> HC Kliff Kingsbury reiterates they’re committed to Josh Rosen. <a href="https://t.co/0nc6Q9FNbW">pic.twitter.com/0nc6Q9FNbW</a></p>— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) <a href="https://twitter.com/mikejurecki/status/1095416194943791104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2019</a>
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<p id="jrf5Dp">“I get that we have the first pick and there are going to be a million scenarios, and over the next three months they are going to come up,” Kingsbury said this week. “But Josh is our guy. Kyler is a tremendous player … I said [I’d take him no. 1], being very complimentary of him before we played an opponent. I understand the soundbite, but like I said, there will be tons of scenarios that come up before we get to the draft.” </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="tmYrvY"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide","url":"http://nfldraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.126737805.1432656904.1549834642-560356702.1471707299"},{"title":"“The Reset Has Been Done”: Why the NFL Draft Combine Is Coming to ABC","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/12/18221629/combine-espn-abc-2019-nfl-draft-eventizing"},{"title":"Gronk, Le’Veon Bell, and the Biggest Story Lines of the NFL Offseason","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/6/18212988/offseason-story-lines-leveon-bell-antonio-brown-rob-gronkowski-kyler-murray"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="mtYCt3">That’s not a no. It’s actually the most honest, reasonable answer Kingsbury could give without undermining Rosen or boxing himself into overcommitting. As Kingsbury said, there are a million scenarios that could happen between now and the draft, but let’s run through four potential scenarios and read the tea leaves.</p>
<h3 id="DAKfNG">Door no. 1: Arizona takes Nick Bosa (or whomever the highest player on their board is) no. 1.</h3>
<p id="yQwvH8">This is the most boring option, but also the most plausible. In this scenario, everything signaling Murray to the Cardinals was a strange series of coincidences, including Murray choosing Burkhardt because … he is good at his job. Burkhardt represented Johnny Manziel before the 2014 draft and last year’s no. 5 overall pick Bradley Chubb. He also just pulled the most impressive agent-ing in recent memory by getting Kingsbury from a college offensive coordinator–in-waiting to NFL head coach in a matter of weeks. </p>
<h3 id="pMbsgs">Door no. 2: Arizona takes Kyler Murray no. 1 overall, then trades Josh Rosen.</h3>
<p id="JWz3l7">Here, the Cardinals feel that Murray is a better fit for Kingsbury’s offense than Rosen. Kingsbury is a disciple of the Air Raid offense, which is <a href="http://smartfootball.com/offense/the-air-raid-offense-history-evolution-weirdness-from-mumme-to-leach-to-franklin-to-holgorsen-and-beyond#sthash.SdM8Wamc.y1nFI3kM.dpbs">more of a philosophy</a> (or a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2018/8/14/17685080/air-raid-offense-mike-leach-lincoln-riley">religion</a>) than a playbook. Rosen has good footwork, can process quickly, and passes the ball well, but his arm is about league average and he’s one of the least mobile quarterbacks in football. It’s extremely rare for a GM to pull the plug on a potential franchise quarterback drafted in the top 10 after just one year, but GM Steve Keim may feel the pressure to buy himself more time, and the team may not be able to pass up on a once-in-a-generation athlete like Kyler.</p>
<p id="m7C7V7">If the Cardinals do shop Rosen, a few teams figure to be interested, starting with the Giants and Jaguars, then possibly the Dolphins and Raiders, and if you squint, New England and Washington, too. In this scenario, the Cardinals flip Rosen for a smattering of first- and second-rounders that they use to rebuild their offensive line.</p>
<h3 id="cjPUEB">Door no. 3: Arizona keeps Rosen and trades down.</h3>
<p id="uGUPGO">Rosen was not the issue in 2018. It was everything around him. The Cardinals had the third-worst offense in DVOA history, and that is a talent and coaching problem, not a rookie QB problem. The Cardinals were the worst pass-blocking team in the league last year, according to <a href="https://premium.profootballfocus.com/nfl/teams?season=2018&weekGroup=REGPO">Pro Football Focus</a> grading. Rosen was sacked on more than 10 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth most in the league, and <a href="https://premium.profootballfocus.com/nfl/positions/passing/under_pressure?position=QB&season=2018&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17&customMinimum=0&minimum=50%25">pressured</a> on more than 40 percent of his dropbacks, third most in the league. That offensive line is the top priority this offseason and the team could conceivably replace both guards and both tackles this offseason. </p>
<h3 id="0YAanu">Door no. 4: Arizona trades down <em>and</em> trades Rosen and drafts Kyler.</h3>
<p class="c-end-para" id="17KWg5">This would be blowing up the team and starting anew by having their cake and eating it too. In this scenario, the Cardinals admit that they have many holes on their roster and they need to add draft capital by trading down and acquiring more picks. But they would also be admitting they feel Murray is a better fit for the team than Rosen, and that questions about Murray’s height are easier to account for than Rosen’s lack of mobility. In the process, the team gets a haul of picks for Rosen while trading down with the comfort that they can still draft Murray, who most draft experts have as the third QB off the board after Drew Lock and Dwayne Haskins.</p>
<p id="c7FYHo"><em>An earlier version of this piece incorrectly suggested the Cardinals could draft Joey Bosa.</em></p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/13/18222849/kyler-murray-arizona-cardinal-rumors-theories-kliff-kingsbury-agentDanny Heifetz2019-02-11T14:51:18-05:002019-02-11T14:51:18-05:00Decision Made: Kyler Murray Has Officially Chosen Football
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<p>After months of speculation, the former Oklahoma QB and Heisman Trophy winner announced Monday that he will pursue his NFL dreams. His unique résumé could turn the 2019 draft upside down.</p> <p id="junG1d">Just like so many other American millennials, Kyler Murray prefers football to baseball. And on Monday, he made it official:</p>
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<p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/kGePeWhrId">pic.twitter.com/kGePeWhrId</a></p>— Kyler Murray (@TheKylerMurray) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKylerMurray/status/1095016263473119232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2019</a>
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<p id="sKRgnl">After <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/10/18176559/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-decision-report">months of speculation</a>, the Heisman Trophy winner and former Oklahoma quarterback announced that he was committing himself fully to football, and in the process will <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18182764/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-oakland-athletics">forego a potential baseball career with the Oakland Athletics</a>, who selected him ninth overall in the 2018 MLB draft. The A’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/athletics/news/kyler-murray-signs-with-athletics/c-281361954">were prepared to pay Murray nearly $5 million</a> in a signing bonus, but Murray is choosing the NFL instead. It’s <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18147692/kyler-murray-heisman-nfl-draft-oakland-athletics">the correct choice</a>—Murray is better at football, he’ll make more money in the sport right away, and he’ll be a more relevant figure in the American sports landscape.</p>
<p id="23Jpby">Murray enters the draft pool as one of the most interesting QBs in recent memory. He has just one year of starting experience, but is clearly a special talent—one who led the Sooners to the College Football Playoff last season and was crowned the sport’s best player. Murray will dominate the conversation around this NFL draft, and where he’s selected will reveal a lot about how teams evaluate nontraditional prospects in a league that is seemingly more aggressive and forward-thinking than ever. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="WiERHJ"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide","url":"http://nfldraft.theringer.com/"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="m8crfP">One of the biggest factors working against Murray is his size. It’s not just that he doesn’t have a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/7/18129857/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-rushing-quarterback">Josh Allen–type stature</a>—Murray might break records for his lack of height. Oklahoma <a href="http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=211452796">lists Murray at 5-foot-10</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/mhouckOU/status/1084938177956233216">there’s speculation that he’s even shorter than that</a>. We’ll get an official measurement at the NFL combine, which begins on February 26, but should he see significant snaps in the pros, Murray would be <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1970&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=100&c5val=1.0&order_by=height_in&order_by_asc=Y">the first quarterback at 5-foot-10 or under to do that since Doug Flutie</a>. </p>
<p id="l1Uyyr">Will his lack of height matter? In a previous NFL era, scouts would have hardly looked at Murray—<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&draft=1&year_min=1970&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=1&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c5val=1.0&order_by=height_in&order_by_asc=Y">no team has drafted a QB who was under 6 feet tall in the first round since the 1950s</a>. But Russell Wilson (5-foot-11) and Drew Brees (6 feet) have shown that smaller QBs can play as well as anyone. Last season, Baker Mayfield (6-foot-1) <a href="https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/college/jimmy-johnson-says-baker-mayfield-height-bigger-red-flag-than-antics/qWu79cIA6AoeRGYRg6quSO/">overcame some height concerns</a> to become the no. 1 overall pick, and he was far and away the best rookie passer in 2018. It’s been decades <a href="http://www.sportsxchange.com/DS97/walsh/walsh2qb.htm">since Bill Walsh wrote that the ideal quarterback should be 6-foot-3</a>. The NFL doesn’t put players in such rigid boxes anymore.</p>
<p id="luTE4g">And like Wilson, Brees, and Mayfield, Murray can <em>ball</em>. He threw for 4,361 yards at Oklahoma last year, racking up 42 touchdowns to just seven interceptions on 11.6 yards per attempt. His 199.2 college passer rating this year is <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html">the second highest in history</a>. And he has <a href="http://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/type/alltime-season">the best total QBR since at least 2004</a> (which is how far back the stat goes), edging out none other than Wilson. By every metric, Murray had one of the most efficient and productive seasons in college football history.</p>
<p id="euQBtA">That record-setting 2018 does come with a few caveats, though. Mayfield put up similar <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2017/12/9/16754660/baker-mayfield-oklahoma-heisman-winner">numbers two seasons ago in Oklahoma</a>, which raises the question of whether Murray’s productivity more about his extraordinary talent or the system he was in. Mayfield is shining in the pros right now, but he also had a very different career than Murray: Mayfield had three very good-to-awesome seasons in Norman and one solid year at Texas Tech as a freshman before he entered the NFL. Murray barely played until 2018, so teams will have far less tape with which to evaluate him. The chances that Mayfield’s entire college career was a fluke were relatively slim; Murray, on the other hand, is more of a risk.</p>
<p id="nylwPu">Draft season is a hell of a lot more fun with Murray in the mix. Many NFL draftniks will have no idea what to make of him—many more will have strong opinions on either side of the debate. Right now, though, <a href="http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts">most mock drafts</a> project him as a first-round pick, and he’s a candidate to go to the Raiders, Giants, Jaguars, Broncos, Dolphins, Redskins, Bengals, or even no. 1 overall to the Cardinals:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kliff Kingsbury back on October 28, 2018:<br><br>"Kyler is a freak.....I would take him with the first pick of the draft if I could."<br><br> <br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/EricKellyTV?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EricKellyTV</a>) <a href="https://t.co/N9m99DkTNr">pic.twitter.com/N9m99DkTNr</a></p>— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1083205578724438016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2019</a>
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<p class="c-end-para" id="97394z">He could even go to the Patriots. Lord save us if that comes to pass. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/11/18220709/kyler-murray-chooses-football-nfl-draft-2019Riley McAtee2019-02-06T19:31:35-05:002019-02-06T19:31:35-05:00Offseason Preview With Albert Breer and Kevin Clark
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<img alt="College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl - Alabama v Oklahoma" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Qoy6ZFQkRhFpAIKEv7hK4rl7Yy8=/171x0:2884x2035/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63011655/1076914366.jpg.0.jpg" />
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<p>Plus, Russillo on the Belichick coaching tree, Brian Flores coaching the Dolphins, and Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins</p> <div id="II8NJv"><iframe src="https://art19.com/shows/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo/episodes/bb858b4e-ecd2-4ee6-b43c-c7e9863a94b4/embed?theme=light-gray-blue" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 200px;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<p id="dWzfjr"><a href="https://art19.com/shows/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo/episodes/bb858b4e-ecd2-4ee6-b43c-c7e9863a94b4">Russillo talks with</a> <em>SI</em>’s Albert Breer about the Belichick coaching tree, Brian Flores coaching the Dolphins, and Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins (1:55). Then <em>The Ringer</em>’s Kevin Clark joins for some rapid-fire questions regarding the 2019 NFL season (17:10). Finally Russillo recaps his trip to Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII (48:05).</p>
<p id="kKVviH"><strong>Subscribe:</strong> <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo/id1433966613?mt=2&i=1000418442913">Apple Podcasts</a> / <a href="https://art19.com/shows/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo">Art19</a> / <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/DualThreatWithRyenRussillo">RSS</a></p>
https://www.theringer.com/2019/2/6/18214672/offseason-preview-with-albert-breer-and-kevin-clarkRyen Russillo2019-02-06T08:05:49-05:002019-02-06T08:05:49-05:00Gronk, Le’Veon Bell, and the Biggest Story Lines of the NFL Offseason
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<figcaption><a class="ql-link" href="http://www.eliasstein.com" target="_blank">Elias Stein</a>/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and Week 1 of the 2019 season seven months away, let’s break down the stories that will define the league’s spring and early summer. First question: Where will the Steelers’ star running back sign? (Spoiler: not Pittsburgh.)</p> <p id="ib9LOy"><em>The Super Bowl is over, </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/3/18210025/los-angeles-rams-new-england-patriots-super-bowl-liii-johnny-hekker-ryan-allen-bill-belichick"><em>thank God</em></a><em>, but so too is the NFL season. Week 1 of 2019 is beyond the horizon, but luckily we have an offseason of story lines to sate our football appetite in the meantime. Is anyone in Pittsburgh happy? Will the Saints take their misery out on the NFL rule book? Will the Heisman Trophy winner ever play football again? Let’s dive into the biggest stories that should unfold this offseason.</em></p>
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<h3 id="SEN94V">Where Will Le’Veon Bell Sign? (Spoiler Alert: Not Pittsburgh)</h3>
<p id="ucnjBh">Bell gave up $14.5 million by sitting out this season in the hopes of reaching unrestricted free agency in March healthy. (If you are still confused why and how Bell sat out the season, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/11/13/18092370/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-franchise-tag-deadline-faq">here are some FAQs</a>.) Barring a shocking decision by the Steelers to get back on this roller-coaster ride in 2019, Bell is going to be free to sign wherever he wants, and it will be fascinating to see what he commands on the open market. Running backs have <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/21/18151201/nfl-running-back-value-debate-steelers-chiefs-seahawks-cardinals">proved to be a terrible long-term investment for teams</a>, but a running back like Bell has never hit the open market. Bell has more yards from scrimmage in his first 62 games than any other player since at least 1950, which is as far back as the stat goes. </p>
<p id="3ifzx5">Whether Bell can recoup the money he lost last season remains to be seen, but Bell and his agent, Adisa Bakari, have <a href="https://theundefeated.com/features/steelers-leveon-bell-agent-adisa-bakari-knows-the-struggle/">repeatedly indicated</a> that their stance was based on principle as much as profit.</p>
<p id="fbkEVQ">“I’ve made a lot of money, I’m happy where I’m at, I’ve got a good family—I don’t really need to play football,” Bell <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22044556/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-sit-2018-retire-tagged-again">told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler</a> in January 2018. “Right now, I’m just kind of doing it because I love it. Now, I’ve done everything but own a Super Bowl. … I don’t necessarily care about the money aspect of it. I just want to be valued where I’m at. If I am playing this game, I want to set standards for all the other running backs behind me, like Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, guys like that. I’m a guy they can kind of look at. I feel I can do that. I’m in a position where I can do that, and I’m going to do it.”</p>
<p id="AhnIsL">If there was ever a perfect New York Jets signing, this is it.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Pittsburgh Steelers v New Orleans Saints" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G5IoSCoVcXlw6fKhox1ERlh1d7Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13740818/1086143622.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Antonio Brown</figcaption>
</figure>
<h3 id="HQO46S">Will the Steelers Trade Antonio Brown?</h3>
<p id="ptlD8p">Pittsburgh is about to end two years of Bell holdout drama, but the team may be getting into an even bigger showdown this year. Antonio Brown missed the Steelers’ Week 17 game against Cincinnati <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/12/31/18163364/antonio-brown-steelers-ben-roethlisberger-drama-locker-room-fight-injury">amid murky circumstances</a>—was his knee injured? Was he secretly disciplined for missing practice? Did he refuse to play?—which led to <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2019/01/01/Steelers-Antonio-Brown-Ben-Roethlisberger/stories/201901010703">reports</a> that Brown wanted a trade. Rather than put out the fire, Steelers controlling owner Art Rooney II poured gasoline on it.</p>
<p id="7qmh9M">“We’ll look at all the options,” Rooney <a href="https://www.apnews.com/8929f84539b743c1901714ebfeef1ea0">said</a>. “We’re not going to release him, that’s not on the table. But I will say all other options are on the table.”</p>
<p id="UD1MLc">Amid the reports about his future with franchise, Brown was <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2019/1/10/18176934/the-masked-singer-episode-2-reveal-recap">revealed as the hippo</a> after being the first contestant voted off of the new Fox show <em>The Masked Singer</em>. On Tuesday, TMZ Sports<em> </em><a href="https://www.tmz.com/2019/02/05/antonio-brown-involved-domestic-dispute-not-arrested/">reported</a> that Brown was involved in a domestic dispute in January but was not arrested.</p>
<h3 id="Kq4c3o">Two Expiring Contracts in Dallas</h3>
<p id="rUB0q9">If you, like me, enjoyed not hearing about the Cowboys for weeks at a time in their quietly surprising offseason last year, I have bad news: We will hear about them early and often in 2019. The Cowboys head coach <em>and</em> starting quarterback are entering the final year of their contracts, and how Dallas handles each situation will affect the franchise well into the 2020s. </p>
<p id="5rWSkw">It starts with Dak Prescott, whose rookie deal is set to expire after this year. Prescott has earned less than $700,000 per year in his three NFL seasons, a wildly below-market rate for the starting quarterback of the<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/07/18/full-list-the-worlds-50-most-valuable-sports-teams-of-2018/#52ef7b9d6b0e"> most valuable sports franchise in the world</a>, and Prescott is likely looking to get paid. Letting Prescott reach free agency is simply not an option for Dallas, and owner Jerry Jones has already said Dak is “<a href="https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/jerry-jones-dak-prescott-will-be-extended?sf201676002=1">going to get extended</a>.” </p>
<p id="SrUd0g">The same vote of confidence has not been granted to head coach Jason Garrett, whose <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25894361/cowboys-unlikely-extend-coach-jason-garrett-contract">contract is also up</a> after this season. Garrett seemed like a goner as recently as mid-November when the Cowboys were 3-5 after nine weeks, but they finished the season 7-1, captured the NFC East, and won their first playoff game since the 2014 season. Garrett was retained, and one day after the Cowboys lost to the Rams in the divisional round, he <a href="https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2019/01/14/jason-garrett-expects-oc-scott-linehan-return-doesnt-anticipate-significant-changes-cowboys-staff">told a Dallas radio station</a> that they “don’t anticipate any significant changes on our staff.” But life comes at you fast when you work for Jones, and just a few days later, the Cowboys <a href="https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2019/01/18/scott-linehan-cowboys-offensive-coordinator-jason-garrett-says-mutual-decision">fired offensive coordinator</a> Scott Linehan. The Cowboys have hired two of their former backup quarterbacks—Kellen Moore and Jon Kitna—to be offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, respectively. The two assistant coaches could innovate Garrett’s offense, or they could double down and give us the blandest year of Cowboys football this decade. </p>
<p id="0bZZPX">Teams try to avoid sending head coaches into the season on an expiring contract. It’s hard for a coach to ask players to buy into a team if the front office won’t buy into the coach. (Take a moment to imagine if your boss was on an expiring contract.) Garrett is going to be asked about his job status at Hue Jackson levels this year. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oakland Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tTSZq-mbNOeY3p79xpLGavImMEU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13740820/1089117014.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Derek Carr</figcaption>
</figure>
<h3 id="etmQvp">Where Will the Raiders Play in 2019?</h3>
<p id="Rti02b">You know what’s worse than letting your quarterback and head coach reach the final year of their contracts? Letting the lease on your football stadium expire. The Oakland Raiders have one more year as the “Oakland” Raiders before they move into their new stadium in Las Vegas in 2020, but where they play in 2019 is low-key the biggest problem on the NFL’s plate for the next two months. The Raiders have been fighting with the city of Oakland and Alameda County over its lease in the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/raiders/2017/03/28/oakland-coliseum-stadium-authority-doesnt-want-raiders-in-2019/99756594/">for years</a>, and the team pulled out of negotiations altogether in December.</p>
<p id="QnFY1S">“We do not have an answer on where we’re going to play next year,” Raiders CEO Marc Badain <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/12/12/raiders-absorb-news-of-possible-early-departure-from-oakland/">said</a> in December. “We have a number of options, and when we have an answer we’ll share it with you.”</p>
<p id="Tu6zpK">The preseason is six months away. This timeline would be stressful if it was a wedding. Not to mention that their “number of options” is a pretty small number: The Vegas stadium won’t be ready in 2019, and UNLV’s football stadium would cost a fortune to upgrade, so moving to Nevada a year early is out. The most likely options right now seem to be playing in Santa Clara by forcing the 49ers to split their home stadium in 2019 like the Giants and Jets share MetLife Stadium, or sharing the San Francisco Giants stadium, Oracle Park (formerly known as AT&T Park, but forever known as the place <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b-z5IZX8Dw">Barry Bonds hit baseballs at kayakers</a>). Yet that agreement is no guarantee. The <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/02/05/san-francisco-mayor-oakland-raiders-giants-oracle-park">mayor of San Francisco</a> has already publicly come out against the latter and there may be stiff opposition in the city. The longer this uncertainty drags on, the more it messes with the scheduling process for the 2019 NFL season. </p>
<h3 id="QrpPqX">Rule Changes</h3>
<p id="Tr8wpf">After the infamous no-call that likely cost the Saints a spot in the Super Bowl, we’ll see whether the heat-of-the-moment anger translates into changes on the field. Senior vice president of officiating Alberto Riveron is in <a href="https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/21/nfl-championship-rams-saints-patriots-chiefs-fmia-peter-king/?cid=pftstory">serious danger</a> of being fired, but the potential rule changes are what’s to watch. Saints head coach Sean Payton, once he’s done eating Jeni’s ice cream and binge-watching the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2019/1/29/18201482/netflix-conversations-with-a-killer-ted-bundy-tapes-true-crime-documentary">Ted Bundy</a> documentary and <em>You</em> on Netflix, will likely leverage his spot on the NFL’s competition committee to seek to change how NFL challenges work. Bill Belichick has long asked for all plays to be reviewable, including penalties. The NFC championship game has put more momentum behind that idea than ever before. But a proposal to make penalties reviewable is not the same as a proposal for coaches to challenge for a penalty to be called retroactively based on replay, which is the only mechanism that would have fixed the Saints debacle. That might open a Pandora’s box of issues for the league that creates more problems than it solves.</p>
<p id="V6kj6h">Proposals will likely be made at the owners’ meeting in late March and could be ratified at the next owners’ meeting in late May.</p>
<h3 id="4akGbl">The NFC East Quarterback Breakups</h3>
<h4 id="nwomD1">R.I.P., Big Dick Nick—Gone, but Not Forgotten</h4>
<p id="C9FsRU">Nick Foles is too expensive for the Eagles to reasonably consider retaining him as a backup quarterback in 2019. ESPN’s Adam Schefter <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25908384/philadelphia-eagles-expected-franchise-trade-nick-foles-sources-say">reported</a> that the Eagles plan to franchise tag Foles and then attempt to trade him for a third-round draft pick—<a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25933365/qb-nick-foles-opts-philadelphia-eagles-pick-option">a move reportedly made possible on Tuesday</a> when the team picked up Foles’s option for 2019, and Foles gave back $2 million to get it out of the deal in anticipation of being tagged. Once traded to another team, Foles could sign a long-term deal or play on a one-year contract at the franchise-tag value (the average of the five highest quarterback salaries), which would be worth north of $20 million. Foles may be gone from Philly soon, but his <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/the700level/bud-light-unveils-philly-special-statue-doug-pederson-and-nick-foles">Philly Special statue</a> outside the stadium (and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BoSc3dNgWpq/">the tattoo on many Philly fans’ forearms</a>) will last for decades. </p>
<h4 id="A8eJLf">A Power Vacuum in Washington</h4>
<p id="4uRKWC">A year after Washington traded for Alex Smith and signed him to a four-year extension, the team’s future at quarterback is a mystery. Smith broke his leg in Week 11 against Houston and spent a month in the hospital after complications and infections required multiple surgeries. One year and one day after Washington acquired him, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Washington is not expecting Smith to be ready to play in 2019.</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">One storyline to follow for 2019: The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Redskins?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Redskins</a> are planning as if they won’t have QB Alex Smith next season, sources say. They believe he’ll miss the entire season with his broken leg issues and are acting accordingly. If he’s ready, they will be pleasantly surprised.</p>— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1089597440368525312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2019</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="dCCQQi">Unless Washington is comfortable rolling with career backup Colt McCoy—who also broke his leg last year—Mark Sanchez, or Josh Johnson, Washington will need a new quarterback this year. That could be a stopgap free agent, like Teddy Bridgewater (also an injury risk), Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or, if we’re lucky, Robert Griffin III. </p>
<p id="EyD8X2">But Washington could also draft a young quarterback and plan a path forward. Smith will be 36 at the start of the 2020 season, and he wasn’t playing particularly well in the 10 weeks before he was injured. It’s hard to imagine that he would be significantly better after extended time off. Smith is signed through 2022 season, but Washington could part with him at a palatable cap figure as soon as after 2020. Despite Washington just committing $71 million guaranteed, it might make sense to call Smith’s deal a sunk cost and start again.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="New York Giants v Indianapolis Colts" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8rA9inm5L-fSwF2RVaLXnmNP0CA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13659939/1086098460.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Eli Manning</figcaption>
</figure>
<h4 id="covl22">Eli Manning and the Giants</h4>
<p id="YjzLIo">Manning is entering the final year of his four-year, $84 million contract extension he signed in 2015. The Giants can save $17 million in cap space by releasing Manning this offseason, but it <a href="https://www.sny.tv/giants/news/7-questions-giants-must-answer-this-offseason/303501108">seems more likely</a> the team is going to keep him on board, let him mentor his successor, and let him waddle into the sunset. After the debacle of a benching in 2017 led to fan uproar about <a href="https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/11/29/16715440/eli-manning-giants-dan-fogelman-letter">making the best quarterback in team history cry at his locker</a>, it might be an attempt to appease the fan base. Unless the team decides to bank on second-year quarterback Kyle Lauletta, 31-year-old journeyman Alex Tanney, or sign a free-agent quarterback, the team is likely to acquire a quarterback this offseason in free agency or the draft with the sixth overall pick.</p>
<h3 id="nRUwct">Quarterback Commitments, Non-NFC East Division</h3>
<h4 id="wiQTXU">Farewell, Joe Flacco</h4>
<p id="3eWxSg">Unlike Manning, there is no mystery to who Flacco’s successor will be. Despite a horrid final game against the Chargers in the wild-card round, the Ravens are committed to their first-round pick as the team’s future after he led the team to a 6-1 finish to make the playoffs (funny how nobody is calling Lamar Jackson a <em>winner</em> like people did Tim Tebow). Considering the changes on offense the Ravens will likely make this season to maximize Jackson’s skill set, Flacco may not make sense as the backup quarterback at any price, and especially not the $63 million of salary he’s still owed. Flacco is a good bet to be cut or traded this offseason. Get ready for the wave of <em>actually, Joe Flacco is underrated</em> opinions about to flood football this offseason when he signs with the Jaguars.</p>
<h4 id="a8yICR">QB or Not QB: Will Kyler Murray Play Football or Baseball?</h4>
<p id="SpX9ml">That is the question. Oklahoma’s center fielder/Heisman-winning quarterback was drafted no. 9 overall last year by the Oakland Athletics, but in January, he <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18182764/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-oakland-athletics">chose to enter the NFL draft</a>. Considering the demands of being a quarterback, there’s little to no chance he can follow in the footsteps of Deion Sanders and Bo Jackson and play both sports professionally. With A’s spring training beginning on February 15 and the NFL combine in Indianapolis on February 26, he’ll likely have to make a choice this month. If you’re wondering which way he is leaning, well, just watch this clip of him on<em> The Dan Patrick Show</em> last week. </p>
<div id="bxZ6Mv">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kyler Murray dodged Dan Patrick’s questions about the combine and his pro day with some very awkward silence <a href="https://t.co/10plRiVtIM">pic.twitter.com/10plRiVtIM</a></p>— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) <a href="https://twitter.com/camdasilva/status/1091390669220913154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="qAPCWI">Here’s a shorter, edited transcript of this conversation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="mC7MzM"><strong>Dan Patrick</strong>: Are you going to the combine?</p>
<p id="G9L3tw"><strong>Kyler Murray</strong>: I don’t know</p>
<p id="bidqsC"><strong>Dan Patrick</strong>: Wait, are you going to spring training?</p>
<p id="jD1aK8"><strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> (Laughing) I don’t know.</p>
<p id="jP01KF"><strong>Dan Patrick</strong>: How tough is it that you’re doing this [press tour] with Gatorade but you know every place you go is going to ask you the same questions?</p>
<p id="BatP2N"><strong>Kyler</strong>: I’m getting pretty good at answering these questions. </p>
</blockquote>
<p id="rmU0oN">Glad that is settled.</p>
<h3 id="uONVGc">Will Gronk Retire?</h3>
<p id="2lBxeb">Tom Brady has <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffDarlington/status/1089613188478447617">insisted he will return in 2019</a>, but Rob Gronkowski has been far less committed. Gronkowski, who played through a number of injuries this year during one of his lesser regular seasons of his career, could go out on top if the final catch of his career was the play that set up the only touchdown in the game that earned him his third Super Bowl ring. A Gronk post-retirement tour could be the jewel of the NFL offseason: He could focus on horse-breeding, pro wrestling, and dance-offs with Shaq. </p>
<h3 id="xIj2KF">Will Kareem Hunt or Reuben Foster Be Suspended?</h3>
<p id="WTiT66">The Chiefs released Hunt on November 30 shortly after<a href="https://www.tmz.com/2018/11/30/kc-chiefs-kareem-hunt-attacked-kicked-woman-surveillance-video/"> TMZ released a video of him shoving and kicking a woman</a> in a Cleveland hotel in February 2018, but the NFL’s investigation is still ongoing. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport <a href="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001011677/article/kareem-hunts-fate-likely-to-be-known-by-free-agency">reported</a> that the league expects to finish the investigation before NFL free agency begins on March 13. Hunt is currently on the commissioner’s exempt list, which bars him from playing. </p>
<p id="iDIvum">The NFL is also still investigating linebacker Reuben Foster’s November arrest on charges of first-degree misdemeanor domestic violence battery in Tampa for an incident at the 49ers team hotel in which he slapped and pushed his girlfriend and damaged her phone, <a href="https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/video/reuben-fosters-redskins-decision-sign-linebacker-slap-face-59647102">according to the girlfriend.</a> Foster was waived by the 49ers the next day, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/redskins-investigation-into-reuben-foster-did-not-include-contacting-police/2018/12/04/4980c82e-f807-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.a7ac4a563473">Washington claimed him</a>. Prosecutors dropped the charges against Foster in January, but Roger Goodell said last week that does not preclude Foster from having violated the NFL’s conduct policy.</p>
<h3 id="gYUIdn">What Will Happen With Colin Kaepernick’s Collusion Grievance?</h3>
<p class="c-end-para" id="6OFr55">Remember Kaepernick’s collusion case against the NFL? The case has been out of the headlines, but it remains at the forefront for NFL owners. Kaepernick’s collusion grievance against the NFL, which has been ongoing since last summer, alleges owners colluded to keep him unemployed for his political protests. The case is a labor dispute pursuant to the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement and not (yet) a legal matter in the judicial system, and a gag order preventing those involved with the case from discussing it has kept it out of the news, but it could come roaring back in 2019. It is still unknown what evidence Kaepernick and his attorneys have presented, but multiple team owners and commissioner Roger Goodell have been deposed in the case, and <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/30/arbitrator-agrees-with-kaepernick-his-case-against-nfl-going-to-trial/">arbitrator Stephen Burbank could reach a decision </a>in the first half of this year.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/6/18212988/offseason-story-lines-leveon-bell-antonio-brown-rob-gronkowski-kyler-murrayDanny Heifetz2019-01-24T15:16:20-05:002019-01-24T15:16:20-05:00Lessons From the Season and the Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide
<figure>
<img alt="College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl - Alabama v Oklahoma" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y_9pUN4j41kjO-Un9OPtU8AdDO8=/0x0:3440x2580/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62925683/1076914420.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>With the Super Bowl a week away, the guys reflect on the lessons they’ve learned from the 2019 season</p> <div id="5pOO4w"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/2NvlZCj8c6msqkRCv9ECir" style="width: 100%; height: 200px; border: 0 none;" scrolling="no"></iframe></div>
<p id="foXeKW"><a href="https://art19.com/shows/the-ringer-nfl-show/episodes/a4b91773-59de-47aa-8679-d1a5520a2edd">With the Super Bowl a week away</a>, the guys reflect on the lessons they’ve learned from the 2019 season (00:00). Then Danny Kelly stops by to discuss <em>The Ringer</em>’s <a href="http://nfldraft.theringer.com/">2019 NFL Draft Guide</a>, including Kyler Murray’s potential, underrated players to keep an eye on, and qualities to look for in a draft prospect (00:00).</p>
<p id="8EHHjL"><strong>Subscribe:</strong> <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fitunes.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Fthe-ringer-nfl-show%2Fid1109282822%3Fmt%3D2">Apple Podcasts</a> / <a href="https://art19.com/shows/the-ringer-nfl-show">Art19</a> / <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-ringer/ringer-nfl-show">Stitcher</a> / <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ringernflshow">RSS</a></p>
https://www.theringer.com/2019/1/24/18196354/lessons-from-the-season-and-the-ringers-2019-nfl-draft-guideRobert MaysKevin ClarkDanny Kelly2019-01-16T09:21:08-05:002019-01-16T09:21:08-05:00‘MasterSports With Rodger Sherman’: Why Kyler Murray Should Pick Football
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/swDAC_mf2u1lsepwaVqbsAbZExE=/480x0:1920x1080/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62854078/kylermastersportsthumb.0.jpg" />
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<p>This week’s class is on multisport athletes</p> <p id="1VBVTp"><em>The Ringer</em>’s Rodger Sherman (PhD) is providing free sports lessons for the internet. This week’s class is on multisport athletes, specifically Kyler Murray, and why Murray should choose football over baseball.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/video/2019/1/16/18185127/mastersports-with-rodger-sherman-why-kyler-murray-should-pick-footballRodger Sherman2019-01-16T08:10:03-05:002019-01-16T08:10:03-05:00NFL Playoffs and Kyler Murray With Bill Simmons, Drew Henson, and Chris Ryan
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<img alt="Kyler Murray" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HjggexGZ28w2TeCHUkWv94Wz7vU=/404x0:4096x2769/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62853824/1076914416.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Ryen Russillo reviews Tom Brady’s impressive performance against the L.A. Chargers in the NFL divisional-round playoff</p> <div id="F0B50h"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/4LyMDuNfv73990FtVRxOk2" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<p id="kGgDhz"><a href="https://art19.com/shows/the-ryen-russillo-podcast/episodes/b1e35dbb-b184-46c8-847e-ea360f865aae">In a jam-packed episode, Ryen Russillo talks with Bill Simmons</a> about Tom Brady’s impressive performance against the L.A. Chargers in the NFL divisional-round playoff (3:06) before talking with former MLB and NFL player Drew Henson about being a dual-sport professional athlete as well as his take on Kyler Murray’s decision to declare for the NFL draft (21:55). Russillo shares his own opinion about Murray (41:10) before talking with Eagles fan Chris Ryan about Philly’s postmortem playoff hopes (52:25).</p>
<p id="tTDp54"><strong>Subscribe:</strong> <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo/id1433966613?mt=2&i=1000418442913">Apple Podcasts</a> / <a href="https://art19.com/shows/dual-threat-with-ryen-russillo">Art19</a> / <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/DualThreatWithRyenRussillo">RSS</a></p>
https://www.theringer.com/2019/1/16/18185069/nfl-playoffs-and-kyler-murray-with-bill-simmons-drew-henson-and-chris-ryanRyen Russillo2019-01-14T18:22:15-05:002019-01-14T18:22:15-05:00Kyler Murray’s NFL Draft Declaration Is an Embarrassment for the A’s—and Baseball
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<p>After weeks of speculation, the Heisman winner has announced his intention to enter the draft. It’s not officially the end of his dalliance with Oakland, but it’s heading that way. And it only drives home baseball’s increasing cultural inferiority.</p> <p id="anx1Hs">Kyler Murray is already a first-round draft pick in baseball, and the Oakland A’s prospect (for now, at least) and Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKylerMurray/status/1084908931007348737">has now declared for the NFL draft</a>, laying the groundwork for him to become a first-round pick in football as well.</p>
<p id="fH2ORP">By declaring for the draft, Murray isn’t committing to playing in the NFL—but this story has been trending in one direction since early this past college football season. When Murray<a href="https://www.mlb.com/athletics/news/kyler-murray-signs-with-athletics/c-281361954"> signed the week after the draft</a>, it was with the understanding that he was definitely going to play only one more season at Oklahoma, where he was set to replace the NFL-bound Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback, then show up for spring training in 2019. As Murray flummoxed Big 12 defenses week after week, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2018/9/20/17883044/kyler-murray-oklahoma-sooners-oakland-athletics-heisman-trophy">it started to seem ridiculous</a> that someone who was this good at football would just give it up. By the end of 2018, Murray’s agent, Scott Boras, <a href="https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1070763961719566336">was swatting away rumors</a> that the 21-year-old Texan would choose football after all. When he was still Texas Tech’s coach, Kliff Kingsbury, whose new team, the Arizona Cardinals, holds the no. 1 overall pick, <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/athletics/cardinals-coach-kliff-kingsbury-once-said-hed-draft-kyler-murray-no-1">said that he’d choose Murray first overall if he had the chance</a>. ESPN’s Adam Schefter <a href="https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1083362944115707905">reported on Thursday morning</a> that the Cardinals might do just that, despite having drafted Josh Rosen 10th overall last year. Kingsbury, for what it’s worth, made his reputation at the collegiate level by mentoring dual-threat quarterbacks with baseball backgrounds: Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M and <a href="https://t.co/GUGXGYYIAf">Patrick Mahomes II</a> at Texas Tech. </p>
<p id="8pWZad">By the eve of Monday’s draft declaration deadline, MLB took the threat of losing Murray to the NFL seriously enough <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1084593258360197127">to waive a rule</a>, at Oakland’s request, prohibiting teams from offering draftees a major league contract. The Athletics were prepared to put Murray on their 40-man roster, essentially fast-tracking him to the big leagues in an effort to convince him to stick with baseball. But even after meeting with Oakland’s top brass and league marketing executives, Murray decided to enter the NFL draft anyway.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RingerMLB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RingerMLB</a> host <a href="https://twitter.com/MJ_Baumann?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MJ_Baumann</a> explores Kyler Murray's decision to enter the draft and the impact of his decision on the Oakland A's and the MLB <a href="https://t.co/9raL2mT8pM">pic.twitter.com/9raL2mT8pM</a></p>— The Ringer (@ringer) <a href="https://twitter.com/ringer/status/1084983891008471040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2019</a>
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<p id="L8mkke">Much as it benefits Murray to straddle the line as long as he can, he’ll have to make a choice fairly soon. He can still withdraw from the draft in the next 72 hours, and he still has the option of deciding to tell NFL teams not to draft him (which he did in the MLB draft in 2015) or being drafted and not reporting (which is how it looks like his 2018 MLB draft experience will shake out).</p>
<p id="SjOAar">The A’s would expect Murray to report to major league spring training, which starts February 15 for position players, 11 days before the NFL scouting combine begins. Murray could theoretically skip the combine and still be taken in the NFL draft at the end of April, but by that point he’d be well into the minor league season. If Murray is playing baseball full time, he won’t be able to work out for or interview with NFL teams, which would rob him of his last chance to boost his draft stock and consolidate his status as a first-round pick. </p>
<p id="ilkDUh">Given how much first-round football buzz there is around Murray, and given how difficult the road from first-round draft pick to nine-figure free-agent payday is in baseball, <a href="https://t.co/jD2wtRwwpe">the best thing for Murray to do financially is to play football</a>—to say nothing of the fact that <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1084909319576043520">by all accounts</a> he prefers football to baseball anyway. If Murray does follow both his heart and his wallet, it’ll be a substantial on-field loss for the Athletics, and an embarrassment not just for the team, but MLB. </p>
<p id="RM34ua">From a strict baseball perspective, Murray’s upside made it defensible, though risky, for Oakland to buck the consensus. Part of what makes Murray such a fascinating baseball prospect is that it’s so hard to find players to compare him to. Athletes as good as Murray, if they choose baseball at all, almost always go pro out of high school.</p>
<p id="mtsxU0">In 51 games as a redshirt sophomore at Oklahoma, Murray was a very productive outfielder, hitting .296/.398/.556 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Players with athletic upside and a track record of production at a big school usually go in the first half of the first round of the draft—Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, and Milwaukee Brewers prospect Corey Ray are all recent examples—but even they are imperfect comparisons because they all had longer track records in college but aren’t quite on Murray’s level athletically. The upside, therefore, is immense.</p>
<p id="QHvO2X">The downside is that even athletic, high-performing college position players aren’t sure things. Bregman is a star, and Turner was a four-win player last year, but Ray—who, like Murray, came into pro ball with questions about his ability to make contact consistently—struck out 176 times in Double-A last year. Even setting aside the specific issues with Murray’s game, it’s just that hard to go from college baseball to MLB, and the attrition rate even for first-rounders is alarming.</p>
<p id="lINuE3">Still, that’s how the draft works, even in the top 10. There’s always risk. Murray was expected to drop further, however, because of the influence of football—both the fact that he’d missed essentially two years’ worth of game reps between high school and his last year at Oklahoma, and the risk that he’d end up picking football over baseball.</p>
<p id="qmtKMu">It’s fairly common for baseball teams to throw top-10 bonuses at amateur quarterbacks and buy them out of their NFL dreams. Joe Mauer was <a href="https://247sports.com/Player/Joe-Mauer-48012/">a five-star quarterback recruit</a> who’d committed to Florida State when the Twins took him first overall in 2001, and others followed his path: Donavan Tate (third overall to San Diego in 2009), Bubba Starling (fifth overall to Kansas City in 2011), and Kohl Stewart (fourth overall to Minnesota in 2013) are just a few recent examples. But all of those players were high-schoolers when they were drafted, unlike Murray, and also unlike Murray, they gave up football immediately upon signing. (Tate briefly returned to football in 2017, but only after several unsuccessful minor league baseball seasons.)</p>
<p id="NCpIut">The A’s not only took Murray and let him play at Oklahoma, knowing the risks, but they signed him to essentially an at-slot bonus, $4.66 million. It would’ve been one thing if they’d reached for Murray in the draft with only a handshake agreement that he’d show up for work while saving money to sign other high-upside players who fell later in the draft. (The archetypal example of this strategy is the 2012 Astros, who took Carlos Correa first overall after he requested a lower bonus than Mark Appel and Byron Buxton, then used the savings to throw an over-slot bonus at Lance McCullers Jr. and buy him out of his commitment to the University of Florida.)</p>
<p id="3kesWO">But that’s not what happened—the A’s took college players (Dallas Baptist outfielder Jameson Hannah and Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman) with their next two picks, and Hannah and Eierman were the only two players who received a bonus more than $10,000 over slot.</p>
<p id="PAOWOb">Any one of those decisions—drafting Murray, giving him close to a full-slot bonus, or letting him play football—is defensible. In fact, given Murray’s unique profile and exceptional upside, the A’s would’ve been savvy even if they’d done any two of those things in combination. But by committing so totally to Murray without demanding similarly total commitment in return, they left themselves exposed to exactly the scenario that’s played out.</p>
<p id="fUu5h2">Losing a first-round pick isn’t the end of the world. The attrition rate for minor leaguers is such that most first-round draft picks end up making a negligible impact on the team’s big league roster, and on average, one first-rounder every year fails to sign at all. But when a team doesn’t sign its first-rounder, it gets a compensation pick one slot later in the next year’s draft, which is an inconvenience, but sometimes ends up benefiting the club in the long run. In 2014, the Astros didn’t sign no. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken, then used their compensation pick on Bregman in 2015; in 2012, the Pirates didn’t sign Appel at no. 8 overall, then used their 2013 compensation pick on Austin Meadows, whom they traded for Chris Archer this past summer.</p>
<p id="4ukHwr">But the A’s won’t get a compensation pick in 2019, because Murray signed. They’ll <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1072987713064714242">get most of the bonus back</a>, but that $4.66 million represented almost half of the $9.55 million bonus pool they had to spend on their entire class. That money’s gone, from a baseball operations perspective, though their billionaire owner John Fisher might enjoy having the extra cash back so he can get the rumpus room on his yacht refloored.</p>
<p id="MywWve">The A’s are living out the worst-case scenario of a draft strategy that looked risky at the time. For their trouble, they’ll lose a substantial prospect—<a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/episode-143-goodbye-and-good-night-bang/">Murray is slated to be</a> the 101st prospect on the <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> leaguewide list when it comes out later this month. It’s not an insurmountable loss by any means, but a team that tries to compete while running a rock-bottom payroll can ill afford to get literally nothing from a top-10 pick.</p>
<p id="HkQ0jc">More than that, though, it’s embarrassing. If the A’s had spent the no. 9 pick on South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty, who went one pick later, and Swaggerty had never reached the majors, the on-field impact would’ve been similar to Murray going to the NFL. But it wouldn’t have been headline news. And no matter how tenuous Murray’s flirtations with baseball had been dating back to high school, the most famous player in his draft class has gone out of his way to reject the A’s.</p>
<p id="hDzMYj">In fact, he’s gone out of his way to reject baseball altogether, which is its own problem. Maybe it’s just that Murray has always loved football more, or that he feels he has a better chance to succeed in the NFL than in MLB—both of which look like reasonable assumptions at this point, and neither of which the A’s or the league could have done anything about.</p>
<p id="doNeYs">But Murray was facing a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/4/20/17259846/minor-league-baseball-anti-labor-ronald-acuna-scott-kingery">long road through the minors on minimum wage at best</a>, apart from his signing bonus, which would be the most money he’d make until he was at least three or four years into his big league career, by which point he’d be into his arbitration years. And he’d be traveling that road in working and living conditions that would’ve been a substantial step down from what he enjoyed as a football player at Oklahoma, and certainly from what he’ll enjoy in the NFL. And as for the nine-figure free-agent deals that underpin much of baseball’s institutional smugness toward the short careers and nonguaranteed contracts of the NFL, well, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18181665/mlb-mlbpa-player-power-labor-strike-machado-harper-murray">those are drying up too</a>. Even if Murray developed quickly and ultimately turned into a star, he’d be around 30 before he hit free agency, and free agents in their 30s don’t get paid anymore. It’s hardly an attractive proposition for an athlete with options; Murray has to see what Mahomes and Mayfield are doing early in their pro careers and think, “Why can’t that be me?”</p>
<p id="Msy8vj">The best argument for Murray to play baseball over football is that baseball is safer, but the pay and working conditions for young baseball players are bad enough that Murray is willing to play the more dangerous sport. This is a problem of MLB’s own making. Maybe Murray’s desire to play football is so great that no amount of money could have swayed him, but because MLB has so forcefully depressed signing bonuses for amateur players, the Athletics never had the chance to make Murray an irresistible financial offer.</p>
<p id="tviv5X">So baseball seems likely to miss out on a potential star, a special athlete who’s proved on the gridiron that he has a flair for the spotlight. Even if Murray were to have washed out in baseball, he would’ve been a compelling story—after all, the most famous current minor league baseball player is the sport’s only other Heisman winner, Tim Tebow, and it isn’t close. Murray hasn’t played a competitive inning of professional baseball yet, and already he’s one of the sport’s biggest stories and most fascinating figures, and his journey through the minors would’ve been just as compelling, whether he succeeded or failed.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="AVvsYF">For a sport that’s increasingly being strip-mined by private capital and struggling with growing labor unrest and waning fan interest, losing a marketable and talented young player to a more popular competitor only drives home football’s cultural supremacy. Just like Oakland, baseball in general doesn’t <em>need</em> Kyler Murray. But it sure could have used him.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18182764/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-oakland-athleticsMichael Baumann