The Ringer - NFL Preseason Power Rankings2017-09-07T09:51:28-04:00http://www.theringer.com/rss/stream/160335092017-09-07T09:51:28-04:002017-09-07T09:51:28-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part IV: The Class of the League Is Exactly Who You Think
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<p>Here come the Patriots, again. But other familiar faces have the pieces to make a Super Bowl push.</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="Qm029u">Well, it’s here. The Chiefs and Patriots will meet on Thursday night to kick off the 2017 regular season, and our lives with actual NFL games will finally resume as normal.</p>
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<p id="ikE0r0">This week, I’ve been ranking all 32 teams, starting with <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers">the dregs of the league</a>, moving to <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins">the flawed groups I expect to miss the playoffs</a>, and hitting <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers">the squads I think will make a push for the postseason</a>. In Part IV, we get to the game’s best—the eight teams I believe can make a run at the Super Bowl. Think of this as a way to convince yourself that the Patriots <em>can </em>be beat. We all need to keep that hope alive.</p>
<p id="PahkLL">As a reminder, my typical biases for great offensive line play and against awful quarterbacks will almost certainly shine through in these rankings, but this is my best effort at trying to sort out how hopeful each franchise should be heading into the year. And with that, let’s get to it.</p>
<h3 id="sZCW4n"><strong>8. Dallas Cowboys</strong></h3>
<p id="EbMgkC"><strong>2016 record: </strong>13-3</p>
<p id="3qMrS1"><strong>2016 </strong><a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings"><strong>Football Outsiders DVOA</strong></a><strong> finish: </strong>3rd on offense; 17th on defense</p>
<p id="ztThEV"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Now that Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension has been upheld (although <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16259070/ezekiel-elliott-dallas-cowboys-roger-goodell-saga-deflategate-ray-rice">he’ll be allowed to play Week 1</a>, which … sure), we have a clearer picture of just how important quarterback Dak Prescott will be to the Cowboys’ offensive success this season. The Dallas running game was a machine in 2016, with Elliott thriving behind a dominant offensive line. The rookie rushed for an NFL-best 1,631 yards on a unit that finished second in rushing DVOA. </p>
<p id="45hKbM">As Prescott prepares to play nearly 40 percent of this season without Elliott, the discussion about the 24-year-old quarterback has been two-pronged. Those high on Dallas will note that Prescott is already an excellent player who put together the best statistical campaign (67.8 percent completion rate; 23 passing touchdowns to four interceptions; and an average of 8.0 yards per attempt) of any rookie passer in league history. Those with doubts about the Cowboys will suggest that he benefited from what might have been the most quarterback-friendly offense in the NFL. </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="fTL5RF"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part I: Focus on the Future, Not the Present","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part II: Don’t Bet on These Teams","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part III: The Rising, the Resurgent, and the Chargers","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="4UBSZk">Both arguments hold merit. Prescott’s penchant for sifting through coverages and progressions to consistently make the right choices was advanced quarterbacking-type stuff. Yet he also played with a back who averaged 5.5 yards per carry on first down (on a league-leading 204 first-down carries) and piloted an offense that used play-action on 24 percent of its snaps, third highest in the league. Only Tom Brady and Russell Wilson had a <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/870494192736153600">better passer rating</a> than Prescott on those throws. For Prescott, the notion of facing third-and-long must have seemed like a ghost story that other quarterbacks tell themselves around the campfire.</p>
<p id="MAOxlK">Still, not every quarterback (honestly, not many quarterbacks) could have exploited the Cowboys’ advantageous settings to the degree that Prescott did as a rookie. He’s the most precious gem in the NFL—an upper-echelon passer who’s set to take home an average of about $600,000 in each of the coming two seasons. The Dallas offensive line should pave the way for a top-five running game no matter who totes the rock. If Prescott can be the quarterback he was last fall (in terms of efficiency), the Cowboys should be able to withstand the temporary absence of Elliott and remain one of the most potent offenses we see on Sundays.</p>
<p id="8GsIvq"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>If Prescott suffers a sophomore slump, the rest of this roster could prove unable to pick up the slack. While part of Elliott’s prolific rookie success came thanks to an offensive line that featured three All-Pros and a guard who just got $24 million guaranteed <a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/ron-leary-10312/">in free agency</a>, part of it came from the unique talents of the Ohio State product. Elliott averaged 2.9 yards after contact (11th among running backs) and flashed the type of vision that actively makes a group up front better. With the personnel Dallas had, that bordered on unfair. </p>
<p id="hNbAj1">What made the Cowboys’ consistency on the ground so impressive was that it was rarely a product of deception. Great passing teams occasionally put up stellar DVOA rushing numbers because opponents focus on containing them through the air. Defenses knew<em> </em>the 2016 version of Dallas was going to pound the ball and still<em> </em>couldn’t stop it. The rushing attack slipping back to a reasonable level—rather than existing as a sentient, ground-churning network—would be the first step in Dallas dropping off this fall. If Prescott hits a snag when presented with tougher circumstances, the Cowboys could fall from the NFL’s upper tier of offenses. </p>
<p id="TnF6Jt">Given the uncertainty Dallas faces on defense, that could be enough to boot the Cowboys out of the league’s elite. Dallas drafted a few cornerbacks this spring, but there’s a reason the team traded for former Bengals corner Bene Benwikere last week: Injuries and inexperience have rendered that position a shrouded and terrifying unknown. That’d be less of an issue if coordinator Rod Marinelli’s pass rush was dominant, but it isn’t. The Dallas front four is thin, and David Irving is suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. </p>
<p id="Xw7lEk"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>75. That’s how many third-down plays of 8 yards or more Dallas faced last season; only Washington had fewer (67). Prescott’s passer rating on those plays was 81.9 percent, good for 13th among QBs who had at least 25 attempts. </p>
<p id="sswkcn"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Right tackle La’el Collins. The third-year offensive lineman missed most of last season with a toe injury, and he returns with a new position and a new contract. By sliding to right tackle, he could make the Cowboys’ line even better, despite the group losing Ronald Leary and Doug Free during the offseason. Collins is an upgrade over Free on paper, but continuity matters along the offensive line. The Cowboys are sacrificing in one area for a boost in another.</p>
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<cite>Stacy Revere/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="GoxuUY"><strong>7. Tennessee Titans</strong></h3>
<p id="LeU5jg"><strong>2016 record: </strong>9-7</p>
<p id="QM2iDZ"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>9th on offense; 24th on defense</p>
<p id="YsJtEq"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>General manager Jon Robinson’s plan to load up on offensive linemen and running backs and fit his Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback into a smashmouth system was met with plenty of ridicule last summer. As it turned out, the joke was on us. Tennessee jumped from dead last in offensive DVOA to ninth in a single season. The ground game averaged 4.6 yards per carry and piled up 2,187 rushing yards. </p>
<p id="jx8hW3">The group responsible for that production returns entirely intact this fall. This offensive line deserves mention alongside the Cowboys and Raiders as one of the best in the league, and it’ll once again pave the way for starter DeMarco Murray and overqualified backup Derrick Henry. The changes on Tennessee’s offense come in its receiving corps, which now features three new threats: no. 5 overall pick Corey Davis, third-rounder Taywan Taylor, and veteran slot man Eric Decker. They represent a complete overhaul of Marcus Mariota’s pass catchers. </p>
<p id="FbS0jv">For the Titans to take the final step toward contention, head coach Mike Mularkey needs to open the throttle on his ground-and-pound approach and let Mariota flourish. While the instinct to protect the team's top asset is understandable (Mariota was sacked on a league-high 9.3 percent of his dropbacks in 2015), the quarterback is also talented enough to elevate this offense from good to great, and now he has the weapons to do it. If the defense experiences a similar surge—and the secondary should improve with the additions of cornerback Logan Ryan and safety Johnathan Cyprien—this team could contend for much more than just the AFC South crown.</p>
<p id="JFHzxN"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Watching Tennessee make a play for all those receivers only for Mularkey to dial up tight end–heavy formations and run Murray until he’s out of gas would be depressing as hell. The Titans can make the ground game the basis of what they do without relying on it to the point of detriment. Look no further than the 2016 Falcons as an example. Unlike his 2015 draft counterpart Jameis Winston, Mariota doesn’t need a nudge toward greatness. He just needs the scheme to get out of his way. </p>
<p id="cjWeTr">On the other side of the ball, Ryan and Cyprien represent upgrades at their positions, but they might not be enough to lift the rest of the secondary. First-round pick Adoree’ Jackson is in line to start alongside Ryan, and rookie cornerbacks are always a dicey proposition. The high-end talent on this unit—coordinator Dick LeBeau’s ranked sixth in the NFL with 40 sacks in 2016—represents cause for optimism. Still, there’s a chance that the supporting cast lags enough to hinder this group’s upside. </p>
<p id="jdlMKO"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>43 percent. That’s how often the Titans offense lined up with two tight ends or six linemen, per the <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35871866-football-outsiders-almanac-2017"><em>Football Outsiders Almanac 2017</em></a>, the highest mark in the league. Now that Tennessee has completely revamped its receiving corps, we’ll see if Mularkey’s plan changes. </p>
<p id="JxC447"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Davis. The 2017 first-round pick will be a good test case in evaluating the scouting eye of Robinson and his front office. The Western Michigan star declined an invite to the Senior Bowl and didn’t work out at the combine after undergoing ankle surgery in February. All that Robinson and Co. had to go on was the tape of Davis beasting defensive backs from MAC schools en route to finishing his senior season with 97 receptions, 1,500 yards, and 19 freaking touchdowns. Everything about Davis’s size (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) and ability (excellent understanding of leverage and spacing, expert ball-tracking sense, and a sommelier’s nose for the end zone) says that he’s a potential NFL star. At this point, though, he remains an enigma.</p>
<h3 id="p3Khsx"><strong>6. Oakland Raiders</strong></h3>
<p id="EOVVAe"><strong>2016 record: </strong>12-4</p>
<p id="vKwn4H"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>8th on offense; 22nd on defense</p>
<p id="VrtRum"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Raiders were the public’s sleeper team du jour going into last season, and boy, did they ever live up to the billing. After 13 straight seasons of finishing .500 or worse, Oakland rattled off 12 victories and cruised to a playoff berth. But a fairly tale season met its grisly demise when quarterback Derek Carr was lost to a broken leg near the end of a Week 16 beatdown of the Colts. </p>
<p id="Ymt1nB">With Carr healthy, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack back in full force, and a host of other young pieces now in the fold, Oakland looks like one of the few teams that could give New England and Pittsburgh a run in the AFC. The offense boasts the conference’s best line, which returns four starters and figures to be dominant yet again. Only Brian Hoyer and Ben Roethlisberger were pressured less often than Carr was in 2016, and this year Oakland’s prodigal son, Marshawn Lynch, will provide some punch in the Raiders backfield.</p>
<p id="cbN7hO">Even more encouraging, while Carr played well enough in his first three NFL seasons to earn a contract that (temporarily) made him the league’s highest-paid player, he still has plenty of room to improve. The Fresno State product finished last fall averaging 7.03 yards per attempt, good for 18th among qualified quarterbacks. His 63.8 completion percentage was 15th in the same group. Oakland’s hope this season is that the promotion of quarterbacks coach Todd Downing to offensive coordinator will remove the limitations from Carr’s game and let the Raiders take one last step toward the elite. There’s an unstoppable version of an offense starring Carr, Lynch, and excellent receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree somewhere in the ether; Oakland stumbling upon it could bring ruin to AFC defenses. </p>
<p id="DZARJE"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Carr is one of those quarterbacks who makes it easy to get riled up. His skill set is tantalizing. Few guys make “holy shit” throws look easier. But even if Carr learns to be more aggressive under a new coordinator, he still has holes left in his game. His accuracy wavers, and his lack of patience in the pocket can sabotage plays. You have the best line in the game, dude. <em>Use it</em>. </p>
<p id="yb2FFm">The ground game should be better with Latavius Murray off in Minnesota (where he’s already been displaced by rookie Dalvin Cook), and there isn’t a person alive who isn’t clamoring to see Beast Mode return to form behind the maulers Oakland has up front. But we’re talking about a 31-year-old running back who hasn’t played football in a year and a half—and a guy who was injured when he hung up his lime-green cleats. I want this. I really do. But collectively we may be expecting more from Lynch than we should. </p>
<p id="lbOKHv">With the offense, though, those are nitpicks. The floor on that side of the ball is high. The same can’t<em> </em>be said for the defense. Oakland’s unit was a trainwreck last season, finishing 25th in pass defense DVOA. And while it’s hard to imagine cornerback Sean Smith being worse than he was a year ago, the Raiders have major question marks even if he bounces back, and several rookies will have to play significant roles. Of all the individual groups on contenders, Oakland’s defense could be the weakest link. </p>
<p id="h17Is4"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>+31. That was Oakland’s point differential last season, a total that equates to an 8.7-win team, per the Football Outsiders Pythagorean projection for team wins. For a group that went 12-4, the 2016 Raiders had just three wins by double digits—and two came against the Jaguars and Bills. I think Oakland is in for a fight in AFC West. </p>
<p id="BNZndy"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Safety Karl Joseph. The 2016 first-round pick entered his rookie campaign fresh off surgery to repair a torn ACL, and it was clear that it hampered his development. Joseph is a missile in the secondary who also has a knack for forcing turnovers. He could go a long way toward improving the Raiders secondary in a hurry.</p>
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<img alt="Devonta Freeman scores a touchdown" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tlNp9eAgb7jf9WKra7PMPDkTrrg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9193939/devonta_freeman_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="yMB2Gh"><strong>5. Atlanta Falcons</strong></h3>
<p id="OhTA7x"><strong>2016 record: </strong>11-5</p>
<p id="DsCIv3"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>1st on offense; 26th on defense</p>
<p id="uyePTH"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Atlanta’s offense <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMx-Lv_eZ3s">took a <em>flamethrower</em></a> to the rest of the NFL last season. It led the league in offensive DVOA, with MVP Matt Ryan averaging an absolutely ridiculous 9.3 yards per attempt. The Kyle Shanahan–coordinated bunch did pretty much whatever the hell it wanted, whenever the hell it wanted—until the final 20 minutes of Super Bowl LI. </p>
<p id="rpapsn">Shanahan is now the head coach in San Francisco, but the blueprint—and personnel—from that historically efficient group is still in place. It’s now up to new coordinator Steve Sarkisian to get the most out of it. A slight fall back to earth is to be expected for a unit that was historically good, but if Sarkisian can find ways to utilize the array of talent at his disposal—an arsenal that starts with receiver Julio Jones and includes burner Taylor Gabriel, lethal running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and emerging tight end Austin Hooper—Atlanta should remain a top-five unit. </p>
<p id="FS7dMW">A small drop-off from the offense would be easier to stomach if the Falcons’ promising young defensive pieces can keep progressing at the rate they did in 2016. This defense came into its own over the second half of last season as rookies like Deion Jones and Keanu Neal combined with second-year contributors Vic Beasley and Grady Jarrett to comprise a speedy corps of playmakers. We’ve seen only flashes of what those guys can be, and this year they’ll be joined by proven reinforcements. </p>
<p id="SDQsO7">Cornerback Desmond Trufant, Atlanta’s best player on defense, missed the second half of last fall with a shoulder injury. He’s back, as are underrated linemen Adrian Clayborn and Derrick Shelby. And while all the returning in-house talent will be a key difference between this group and last year’s, the two biggest swings GM Thomas Dimitroff took this offseason could put head coach Dan Quinn’s group over the top. Pro Bowl nose tackle Dontari Poe signed a one-year, prove-it deal for $8 million and fills a massive hole in Atlanta’s run defense; 2017 first-round pick Takkarist McKinley could become the secondary pass rusher the Falcons have craved since finding Beasley. Quinn’s unit finished 11th in pass defense DVOA from Week 10 onward last season. I don’t think that was a fluke. </p>
<p id="rZEd5V"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>As a card-carrying member of the Shanahan Is a Mastermind club, I’m obligated to point out just how much better Ryan was in 2016 than he was in any previous year of his career. Before recording his 9.3 yards-per-attempt mark last season, the 32-year-old quarterback had never cracked 8.0 in the same metric. Shanahan can stake a claim as the best play-caller and designer in the league; even if Sarkisian does well, the offense’s downgrade at coordinator is undeniable. </p>
<p id="77moWU">Aside from having the perfect guy to pull the strings in 2016, Atlanta also benefited from staying remarkably healthy. Only the Rams offense lost fewer games to injury, and no team in the league had a healthier offensive line by <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit">adjusted games lost</a>. If the Falcons do get banged up up front, the results could be disastrous. Atlanta’s depth at those spots is problematic enough that the team dealt a fifth-round pick to Denver this spring to acquire flameout Ty Sambrailo. That is never<em> </em>a good look. </p>
<p id="laEePD">If the Falcons’ young defenders don’t develop as planned, a step back on offense could cause a significant 2017 regression. </p>
<p id="VBdKRs"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>27 percent. That’s how often the Falcons offense <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-play-action-offense">used play-action</a> last season, the highest mark in the league. It averaged 10.3 yards per play on those snaps. Even with Shanahan’s exit, expect play fakes and boots to remain central to Atlanta’s approach. </p>
<p id="sdI1fB"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Neal. If you could build a strong safety from scratch to play in Quinn’s scheme, he’d probably look a lot like the 17th overall pick from the 2016 draft. Neal is a hammer who not only delivers massive shots all over the field, but who also provides the Falcons with run support and has the range to eat plays up near the line of scrimmage. Atlanta has crushed its recent drafts, and Neal is the most recent first-round find. </p>
<h3 id="DRZT0x"><strong>4. Green Bay Packers</strong></h3>
<p id="o5c6h4"><strong>2016 record: </strong>10-6</p>
<p id="pKGWoR"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>4th on offense; 20th on defense</p>
<p id="k5okG4"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>You’ve seen Aaron Rodgers play before, right? After there was a hilarious amount of debate surrounding whether Rodgers was on the decline at the start of last season, the Packers quarterback responded by laying waste to the NFL over the second half of the 2016 campaign. A fun bit of trivia: Since <em>Game of Thrones </em>showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss are now out of source material, they’ve agreed to use footage of Rodgers’s divisional-round playoff masterpiece against the Cowboys in the place of any future scene featuring a dragon. </p>
<p id="2Vj2pt">So long as Rodgers’s play borders on supernatural, the Green Bay offense should be among the best in the NFL. And to complement a receiving corps that returns all of its principal pieces, this group added former Patriots and Bears tight end Martellus Bennett in free agency. Bennett turned 30 years old in March, yet he might be the most dangerous weapon Rodgers has at his disposal. With Bennett flying down the seam or creating mismatches around the goal line, this offense should boast even more wattage than it did a year ago. </p>
<p id="WzpKuw">The issue with Green Bay’s 2016 roster came on defense, where a host of injuries and ineffectiveness in the secondary lampooned its ability to stop the pass. Along with losing starter Sam Shields for 15 games, the Packers missed a combined nine starts from second-year corners Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall. Based on his decisions this offseason, GM Ted Thompson doesn’t intend to let that happen again. Thompson brought Davon House back from Jacksonville on a one-year deal before drafting cornerback Kevin King and safety Josh Jones in the 2017 second round. Green Bay’s solution in the secondary has often been to throw a bunch of bodies at the problem and hope the rotation works out. If the collection of talent in the defensive backfield—led by safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix—is calibrated the right way, this unit should be able to do enough to prop up the world-destroying work of the offense. </p>
<p id="LFi2vG"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>At a certain point, the Packers have to pay for letting so many quality offensive linemen walk. After cutting All-Pro guard Josh Sitton on the eve of the 2016 season, Green Bay allowed both T.J. Lang and J.C. Tretter to leave for big deals in free agency this March. The blow of losing Tretter is lessened by the return of former starting center Corey Linsley from injury, but the Packers’ guards could end up being a serious problem. Lane Taylor has been serviceable when given the opportunity, yet he’s far from a sure thing. And right guard Jahri Evans is 34; he’s bounced around the league over the past couple of years for a reason. </p>
<p id="e4GcFq">Rodgers can mitigate subpar pass protection with his elusiveness, but there’s a chance that all of the Packers’ changes up front will have an adverse effect on the ground game. Last season’s experiment with Ty Montgomery at running back somehow worked. The former receiver caused a missed tackle every 4.42 touches, the fourth-highest rate among running backs, according to Pro Football Focus. That led to Montgomery averaging 5.14 yards per carry <em>after </em>contact, comfortably the highest mark in the league. Even with a quarterback who’s a dragon, the front office’s choice to roll with talent deficiencies along the line still amounts to playing with fire. </p>
<p id="E6Uk99">On defense, the departure of Julius Peppers is significant, though the hope is that better health at inside linebacker will allow Clay Matthews to slide back to his natural position as a pass rusher. Overall, the front four is thin (it has to be for a team carrying <em>11</em> defensive backs); if defensive tackle Mike Daniels does down, the Packers could be in real trouble. </p>
<p id="NW8wua"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>29 percent. That’s how often Green Bay used six defensive backs last season, the second-highest percentage in the league, per Football Outsiders. The Packers love to load the secondary with bodies; if they want to do that this year, they’ll have to rely on two first-year players in a big way. </p>
<p id="LH6Gil"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Defensive tackle Kenny Clark. The 2016 first-round pick played sparingly as a rookie, but the Packers need him to come along in a hurry following the exits of Letroy Guion and Datone Jones.</p>
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<img alt="Earl Thomas during a game for the Seattle Seahawks" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2AB0l1SA2hQCqXO0AkjepHpK--0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9193997/earl_thomas_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Christian Petersen/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="t90Dhj"><strong> 3. Seattle Seahawks</strong></h3>
<p id="2QK0Eu"><strong>2016 record: </strong>10-5-1</p>
<p id="t2CqkU"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>16th on offense; 5th on defense</p>
<p id="f4uzo6"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>I have a sinking feeling that we’re going to look back on this season and wonder how the <em>hell </em>Seattle was allowed to steal Sheldon Richardson in a deal with the Jets. The Seahawks pried the 2013 first-round pick from New York for the low price of Jermaine Kearse and a 2018 second-rounder. In the process, head coach Pete Carroll’s front four added a great white shark to a tank already stocked with hammerheads. </p>
<p id="ytGwYg">Seattle’s defensive line should be a menace with Richardson sliding into his natural spot as a penetrating 3-technique tackle. Just thinking about the possibilities is enough to make your head spin. Will Frank Clark line up next to Richardson in the nickel? Or will Michael Bennett continue to bump inside? I’m not sure, but I bet that defensive coordinator Kris Richard is giggling somewhere mulling over the answer. </p>
<p id="8HhN5V">Richardson joins a ferocious group that brings back all its familiar faces. The Seahawks have been able to enjoy sustained success on defense because every season a new player has emerged as a star. In the past, that guy has been Bennett, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas. What we learned last year, though, is that Thomas is the engine that makes this crew go. Seattle’s defense fell into a pit of despair when the All-Pro went down with a broken leg in Week 13. Before losing Thomas for the season, Seattle allowed an opposing passer rating of nine on passes targeting the deep middle; after he went down, that number jumped to 135. While Richardson is the flashy new add, the 2017 defense will dominate because Thomas wrecks opposing passing games. </p>
<p id="wm96DE">How the Seahawks almost fielded a league-average offense last year given their line woes is beyond me. Russell Wilson has always been able to pull off Houdini-esque nonsense, but even he had trouble doing much behind Seattle’s front in 2016. That issue came to a head in the playoff game in Atlanta, when an injury to Germain Ifedi was enough to sink the offense. The line remains a potential nightmare, but with Wilson, an underrated receiving corps, and a backfield with a healthy C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls, this offense should do enough to make Seattle the class of the NFC. </p>
<p id="WyNDCQ"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Then again, when a team losing George Fant—an undrafted free agent who played a single year of college football—to a torn ACL is treated like a tragedy, it’s clear that Seattle isn’t fully in a good spot. Fant was slated to start at left tackle; he’ll be replaced by Rees Odhiambo, which … yeesh. And this team’s problems up front don’t stop there. The Seahawks signed Luke Joeckel, the former no. 2 overall pick who crashed and burned in Jacksonville, to an $8 million contract this offseason to play guard. Joeckel hasn’t provided much evidence that he deserves that type of opportunity. </p>
<p id="S2N4kB">We’ve seen what can happen when Seattle’s offensive line falls apart. Wilson injured his ankle in last September’s Week 1 game against the Dolphins, and it had a lingering effect on half of the Seahawks’ campaign. Wilson is too integral to Seattle’s success to play at less than full health. Elsewhere in the backfield, it feels like Rawls and Prosise have <em>never </em>been 100 percent healthy. Rawls missed half of the 2016 season with an ankle issue; Prosise looked ready to break out early last season until a scapula injury cost him the final 10 weeks of his rookie campaign. No matter how well the defense plays, Seattle has a ceiling if its offensive line falters.</p>
<p id="GSerO3"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>117. That’s the number of knockdowns (combined sacks and hits) that Wilson took last year, the fourth-highest mark in the league. The three quarterbacks with more (Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, and Jameis Winston) all play in schemes designed to push the ball downfield. </p>
<p id="dHpoqK"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Wide receiver Paul Richardson. Like many of his brethren on the Seahawks offense, Richardson couldn’t stay healthy for the early part of his career. When he was consistently on the field late last fall, though, he made absurd catches every week. The fourth-year wideout will get his share of targets with Kearse on the Jets. I hope the internet is ready.</p>
<h3 id="tsJv5J">2. Pittsburgh Steelers</h3>
<p id="PsQOa1"><strong>2016 record: </strong>11-5</p>
<p id="ykP5TS"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>7th on offense; 11th on defense</p>
<p id="B66C9U"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>It’s been more than two full seasons since the four B’s of Pittsburgh’s offense—Ben, Bell, Brown, and Bryant—started in the same game. That’s a damn shame for football fans, and it’s robbed the Steelers of the chance to become the sport’s most explosive offense. Pittsburgh was still a pain in the ass for opponents last season, with Le’Veon Bell taking on an increased receiving load and emerging as the team’s secondary pass catcher behind Antonio Brown. He averaged 7.8 targets over 12 games last year; extrapolate that over 16 games, and Bell would’ve tied for 21st in the league in the statistic, regardless of position. </p>
<p id="jKEecb">Bell’s injury early in January’s AFC championship game essentially crushed the Steelers’ hopes of knocking off the Patriots. But Pittsburgh was in a hole even before it took the field. The Patriots left lesser receiving options like Cobi Hamilton and Sammie Coates in single coverage opposite Brown the entire game; they dared the Pittsburgh no. 2 receiver to beat them, and no one was up to the task. That’s because Martavis Bryant’s suspension for all of 2016 drastically changed the complexion of this roster. Bryant alters the way defenses have to consider the Steelers; he’s also an athletic marvel who can take a pass from the line of scrimmage to paydirt in a blink. </p>
<p id="K4ZTc0">Beyond Pittsburgh’s offense keeping all of its headliners on the field, this team’s 2017 chances rely on the defense showing signs of improvement. The Steelers were 11th in defensive DVOA last season and have young players poised to take on larger roles at every level, from cornerback Artie Burns to safety Sean Davis to nose tackle Javon Hargrave to pass rusher Bud Dupree (who missed nine games to injury last fall). If some guys make the leap, the upside for head coach Mike Tomlin’s squad is massive.</p>
<p id="zJuVZq"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>For all of the optimism in Pittsburgh, this defense still faces question marks at a few key spots. Lawrence Timmons was clearly on the downside of his career last season, but at least he was experienced. With the longtime starter now in Miami, the Steelers have a lack of proven talent next to Ryan Shazier at inside linebacker. A lot more will be asked of Burns as he steps into a starting role, and on the other side, it’s reasonable to wonder how much cornerback Joe Haden (who was recently acquired after being cut by the Browns) has left in the tank after suffering a steady stream of injuries over the past few years. </p>
<p id="2415xk">The offense should be scary no matter what, but it’s not as if Bell and Bryant have been immune to injury, either. Bell returned to practice this week after holding out for most of training camp; as comfortable as he is in this offense, that’d leave me walking on eggshells if I were a Steelers fan. </p>
<p id="vhtNsf"><strong>Stat of note:</strong> 90.4. That’s the percentage of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps that Bell was on the field for last season, the highest mark of any back in the league by 6.7 percentage points, according to Pro Football Focus. In an era of specialization, no stat showcases how complete he is quite like that one. </p>
<p id="JBtH6I"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Outside linebacker <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2017/4/26/16043430/tj-watt-2017-nfl-draft-wisconsin-badgers-601b0fac30c3">T.J. Watt</a>. The Steelers announced this week that the youngest Watt brother—and the 30th overall pick in the 2017 draft—would be listed as a starter in his rookie season. T.J., like J.J., has an athletic profile that barely makes sense. The Steelers’ best method for limiting a young secondary’s mistakes this fall is to rattle opposing quarterbacks. Watt will have plenty of say there.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Mike Gillislee runs the ball during a game for the New England Patriots" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VariRZVy4dtUP9BfYSCtpeaYTBo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9194033/mike_gillislee_inline.jpg">
<cite>Gregory Shamus/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="5CPg8n"><strong>1. New England Patriots</strong></h3>
<p id="aayb1y"><strong>2016 record: </strong>14-2</p>
<p id="DlBBtD"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>2nd on offense; 16th on defense</p>
<p id="knT2Q3"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>C’mon … we know how this ends. The Patriots went 14-2 last season, won Super Bowl LI, and then <em>added </em>Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Mike Gillislee, and Stephon Gilmore to their roster that played against the Falcons. This shit should be illegal. The circumstances necessary for an NFL team to go undefeated are so unlikely that picturing the Pats going 16-0—no matter how talented they are—is tough. But the fact that the possibility is worth mentioning tells you all that you need to know about New England’s 2017 prospects. </p>
<p id="684s34">Losing receiver Julian Edelman to a torn ACL this preseason is a bigger blow than many have made it out to be, although it’s not as if this offense is lacking for playmakers. Cooks and Chris Hogan might comprise the best combination of deep targets that Tom Brady has ever had (unless you consider the power of Randy Moss to be equal to the impact of two men, which is fair), while Gronk, James White, Dion Lewis, and the newly acquired Rex Burkhead give the Pats an arsenal of pass-catching options that can terrorize defensive personnel packages from any point on the field. The formations and concepts available to the Pats with the guys they now have are endless; for a coaching staff featuring Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick, that could lead to destruction of biblical proportions. </p>
<p id="upFM9t">New England’s defense may not have the Death Star potential that Brady’s bunch possesses, but it’s still a talented crew that should more than hold its own. Pairing Gilmore (who inked a five-year deal that included a whopping $40 million guaranteed) with Malcolm Butler gives the Patriots a ridiculous pair of cornerbacks. And retaining linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who runs this defense, was a big win. There’s really no way around it: The Patriots are the clear and deserved Super Bowl favorites. </p>
<p id="yTcbjI"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>How far can I go in this section before it seems like a stretch? The edge spots are probably the weakest part of the Patriots’ roster, especially after the season-ending injury to third-round pick Derek Rivers, and New England had to trade for Seahawks backup Cassius Marsh last week. But the importance of superstar pass rushers has always been marginalized in Belichick’s defense. The Patriots’ scheme is predicated on controlling the line of scrimmage, even with defensive ends. If there’s one area where this group doesn’t need top-flight talent, this is it. </p>
<p id="wdsaKp">It’s even harder to come up with problems on the other side of the ball. There was a time when New England’s offensive line was the worst part of its roster. Those days are long gone. The right side of the line, made up of stellar young pieces Shaq Mason (at guard) and Marcus Cannon (at tackle), is rock solid. And even if the unthinkable were to happen and Brady got injured, backup Jimmy Garoppolo could likely lead the Pats to a top-four seed in the AFC. This roster is one of Belichick’s masterpieces. </p>
<p id="cEKHdn"><strong>Stat of Note:</strong></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RHXVQG0gEfuyFuJIS4RZ6F4aWiQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9194085/pats_chart.jpg">
<cite>Football Outsiders Almanac 2017</cite>
</figure>
<p id="DhZ8rL">This chart comes from the invaluable <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2017-Essential/dp/1974013782"><em>Football Outsiders Almanac 2017</em></a>, which I cited frequently in these rankings because it’s my favorite source of numbers-based information coming into a season. Look at that distribution of formations. It’s amazing. The Pats used a single back less often than all but one team in 2016, and also went empty on nearly 10 percent of their snaps. They went with three or more receivers less often than all but a handful of teams, and went with heavy sets at a notably high rate. Formation diversity is the mark of the best schemers alive. The Patriots set the bar in that area. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="TBJqVX"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Gillislee. The former Bills running back came to New England as a restricted free agent for the affordable price of a fifth-round pick and his two-year, $6.4 million contract. For as crowded as the Pats backfield is, I don’t think it’ll take long to find out just how devastating he can be in this offense. While part of what allowed Gillislee to average an absurd 5.7 yards per carry and lead the league in DVOA last season was the running-back-friendly design of Buffalo’s offense, there’s no ignoring what he brings as a runner. This New England offense has layers we don’t even understand yet. With Gillislee, we shouldn’t have to wait too long to find out. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/7/16266102/preseason-power-rankings-part-four-patriots-cowboys-steelersRobert Mays2017-09-06T09:30:18-04:002017-09-06T09:30:18-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part III: The Rising, the Resurgent, and the Chargers
<figure>
<img alt="Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, and Tyrann Mathieu" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yH11rIdjLfdRccYXV9U5QbuZq7U=/0x0:2667x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/56537401/nfl_power_rankings_mays_3_getty_ringer.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Will the Panthers reemerge as contenders? Can Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston take the next step? And will last year’s disaster team make a run in the AFC?</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="GmAnxr">This is one of those times when a daylong nap seems appealing, if only so it can be Thursday night already. In fewer than 36 hours, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots and—if you read below—the in-transition Chiefs will kick off the 2017 NFL season. Like the rest of you, I’m pumped to see what ridiculous act of self-aggrandizement Pats owner Robert Kraft will put together to celebrate <em>this </em>championship. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="2017 NFL Preview" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WVyoHIYIlvq8ljC_dCAxz6R1lWo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9107711/2017_NFL_preview.jpg">
</figure>
</div>
<p id="k988Cj">Earlier this week, I ranked the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers">teams I expect to finish at the bottom of the league</a> and the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins">teams that I expect to finish just outside the playoff picture</a>. In Part III of <em>The Ringer</em>’s preseason power rankings series, I’m examining the teams that could sneak into the postseason. This group involves some bounce-back candidates and some teams poised to get over the hump; all of them should be relevant come December if they hit their potential.</p>
<p id="jN6Nom">As a reminder, my typical biases for great offensive line play and against awful quarterbacks will almost certainly shine through in these rankings, but this is my best effort at trying to sort out how hopeful each franchise should be heading into the year.</p>
<h3 id="TxKnVw">16. New York Giants</h3>
<p id="KBoTdf"><strong>2016 record: </strong>11-5</p>
<p id="OeJEiF"><strong>2016 </strong><a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings"><strong>Football Outsiders DVOA</strong></a><strong> finish: </strong>22nd on offense; 2nd on defense</p>
<p id="tsYncm"><strong>Best-case scenario:</strong> The Giants’ defensive turnaround from 2015 to 2016 was one of the most impressive of any unit in recent history. Coordinator Steve Spagnolo’s group jumped from 31st to seventh in yards per play, and from 30th to second <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2016">in DVOA</a>. In most cases, a leap like that would precede a regression to the mean the following season. With the Giants, though, there’s an easy-to-trace reason for the upgrade: Last year’s free-agent class already looks like an all-time haul.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="JGWy4w"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part I: Focus on the Future, Not the Present","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part II: Don’t Bet on These Teams","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="oGGg0s">General manager Jerry Reese paid the sticker price for edge rusher Olivier Vernon, run stuffer Damon Harrison, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins in 2016, and <em>all </em>of them proved worthy of their massive contracts. That went a long way in transforming the defense. Yet the most critical development on that side of the ball was Landon Collins going from a below-average starter as a rookie to the best safety in the league in his second season. Collins’s skill set is patently ridiculous. He tallied four sacks and five interceptions while providing stout support against the run. The way he is deployed in New York’s defense makes him as dangerous as any player going right now. </p>
<p id="ne9oxP">If the Giants defense can avoid taking a major step back in 2017, the offense <em>should </em>be much better than it was last season. For New York to score points last fall, Odell Beckham Jr. had to take a slant 50 yards to the house; only the lowly Rams went three and out <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2016">at a higher rate</a>. In his search for more consistent production, Reese signed perfect Beckham complement Brandon Marshall in free agency and grabbed Ole Miss tight end and combine wrecker Evan Engram in the first round of the draft. Even if Eli Manning is on the decline, adding Marshall and Engram to Beckham and second-year slot man Sterling Shepard should be enough to boost the passing game. </p>
<p id="cRq7tR"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>After throwing most of his resources this offseason at pass catchers, Reese did little to upgrade the Giants offensive line, which remains the weakest spot on New York’s roster. Ereck Flowers, a 2015 first-round pick, has shown almost no growth at left tackle. No tackle in the NFL has allowed more pressures over the past two seasons than Flowers’s 128, and it isn’t <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ereck-flowers-struggling-with-consistency-at-giants-camp">all that close</a>. </p>
<p id="1vWWiz">Guard Justin Pugh and center Weston Richburg are solid contributors on the inside, but the Giants will once again ride with Bobby Hart at right tackle and choose between Chargers flameout D.J. Fluker and the incumbent John Jerry at right guard. Marshall, Engram, and Beckham could make scoreboards explode if given the chance, but this line is bad enough that it might limit those playmakers’ potential. </p>
<p id="wQvxps">The Giants’ upside is tantalizing. But their flaws—and any possible drop-off from the defense—could spell doom in a competitive NFC East.</p>
<aside id="LJRtYO"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"10 Weird NFL Stats From 2016 That Could Help Explain 2017","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/31/16225408/10-weird-nfl-stats"}]}'></div></aside><p id="y8fxr6"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>92 percent. That’s how often this offense lined up in 11 personnel last season (three wide receivers, one back, and one tight end), <a href="https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html">according to Sharp Football Stats</a>, which made for the highest mark in the league by 16 whole percentage points. No other team is as predictable with formations. </p>
<p id="9y3cY9"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Engram. Second-year head coach Ben McAdoo’s commitment to the 11 personnel grouping means that Engram should see the field often as a rookie. Given the Giants’ offensive line issues and Manning’s tendency to get the ball out of his hands quickly, the 6-foot-3 236-pounder should get a healthy share of targets.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Carson Palmer" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8IWurIq86JXqg2UrwrSE1CeNBj4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9186255/carson_palmer_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Christian Petersen/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="8MRAeu">15. Arizona Cardinals</h3>
<p id="Oo2RWR"><strong>2016 record: </strong>7-8-1</p>
<p id="5cKHNC"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>21st on offense; 3rd on defense</p>
<p id="Mx4q7Z"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Cardinals have fielded one of the NFL’s most consistent defenses over the past few years, but this season they have to replace a staggering amount of production. Safeties Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger—a reclamation project who turned around his career in Arizona—left in free agency. Linebacker Kevin Minter will now play his thumping early-down role in Cincinnati. And the heart of the defense, lineman Calais Campbell, hit the jackpot by inking a four-year, $60 million deal in Jacksonville. Surviving those losses will be tough, but Arizona added the types of guys who could keep this unit thriving if all breaks right.</p>
<p id="kgmjmw">Robert Nkemdiche, the franchise’s 2016 first-round pick, will be asked to provide at least some of what Campbell did as an interior pass rusher. Haason Reddick, this year’s first-round pick, should contribute early at inside linebacker. Defensive coordinator James Bettcher will have to figure out the best way to use Reddick, veteran stopgap Karlos Dansby, and safety turned linebacker Deone Bucannon. While he tinkers, the secondary should provide cover: 2017 second-round pick Budda Baker, 33-year-old Antoine Bethea, and superstar Tyrann Mathieu give the Cardinals the safety flexibility they covet.</p>
<p id="vpK7ie">For Arizona to reach its potential, this roster’s young talent needs to pop. Even if it doesn’t, though, the floor should remain relatively high. After coming off ACL surgery, Mathieu had a middling 2016, but he looked to be back to his old ways this summer. And the pass-rushing combination of Chandler Jones and Markus Golden should get to opposing passers no matter what happens on the defensive line’s interior.</p>
<p id="503eIe"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The concern for the Cardinals, even if the defense maintains its recent level of play, is that last year’s offensive performance could become the new normal. That starts with quarterback Carson Palmer, whose play plummeted last fall relative to his MVP-level 2015 campaign. If last fall’s drop-off was a sign of things to come, Arizona is probably cooked before the season begins. Yet the hope is that a full 16 games from tackle Jared Veldheer, better overall health from the offensive line, and a more rested Palmer could keep a repeat disappointment from happening. </p>
<p id="PWymu8">While keeping Palmer upright is Arizona’s main goal on offense, finding a secondary playmaker to pair with cyborg running back David Johnson isn’t far behind. With receiver Larry Fitzgerald doing his best work from the slot and wideout John Brown dealing with a lingering quadriceps injury, there’s a chance that the Cardinals will once again have to lean on Johnson at a ridiculous clip in 2017. His 2,118 yards from scrimmage last season came on 373 touches—an absurd workload for a back in the modern NFL. </p>
<p id="HhDlG4"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>52.6 percent. That’s how often the Cards defense generated pressure on line stunts and twists last season, <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-cardinals-pass-rush-has-no-comparison-around-the-league">according to Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus</a>, and that was tops in the league. They blitzed on 40.9 percent of their defensive snaps and finished second in the NFL in <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/defense-and-pass-pressure-2016">pressure rate</a>. Arizona has plenty of talent to replace on defense, but this coaching staff knows how to put its players in spots to succeed. </p>
<p id="T9tn8A"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Reddick. The 6-foot-1 235-pounder is transitioning from a focused edge-rushing role at Temple to a full-time linebacker job in Arizona, and he’s exactly the kind of player that the Cardinals’ blitz-happy scheme should be able to unleash. His combine showing proved what a <a href="https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/haason-reddick">scary athlete</a> he is. Arizona is better than any other team at putting the explosive traits of its linebackers to good use.</p>
<h3 id="tOjzEZ">14. Minnesota Vikings</h3>
<p id="xkolpL"><strong>2016 record: </strong>8-8</p>
<p id="Jl1XmG"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>26th on offense; 9th on defense</p>
<p id="UGEjvy"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>General manager Rick Spielman spent this offseason retooling the areas of Minnesota’s roster that sunk its playoff chances after a 5-0 start. That began with the offensive line, which last year was the most banged-up unit of the century, per Football Outsiders’ <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit">adjusted games lost metric</a>, finishing 24 games worse than any other line in the league. Free-agent signings Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers might not be top-tier options at tackle, but they represent notable upgrades for the Vikings simply by not being T.J. Clemmings and Jake Long. </p>
<p id="7d1eWX">Considering all the moving parts up front, quarterback Sam Bradford played pretty damn well for this team after coming over in a trade two weeks before last season kicked off. With better protection and a rushing attack centered on rookie Dalvin Cook, it’s possible to imagine a version of this offense that ranks among the top half of the league. Add that to the talent that Minnesota returns on defense, and there’s a recipe for a serious contender—both in the NFC North and the conference overall. </p>
<p id="LqxaTA">Head coach Mike Zimmer’s defense brings back every major piece of a 2016 group that was absolutely devastating before falling apart down the stretch. The secondary is loaded, headlined by safety Harrison Smith. Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph remain stars along the defensive line, and the somehow only 22-year-old Danielle Hunter has a chance to take over the NFL after racking up 12.5 sacks in his second season. If linebacker Anthony Barr, who bizarrely declined last fall after breaking out in a big way in 2015, returns to form, this has the makings of a top-five unit.</p>
<p id="lRCx9i"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Even the bleakest outlook for the Vikings defense ends with it playing like a top-12 group. That’s what kind of talent and depth lines the depth chart. But the prognosis for the offense is far less certain. The Vikings will work in four new offensive line starters, including rookie center Pat Elflein. While it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to get worse line play than it did last season, a subpar front could still torpedo this team’s playoff aspirations.</p>
<p id="J59nC7"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>3.2. That’s the average yards per pass the Vikings defense allowed when bringing six or more rushers last season, according to the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2017-Essential/dp/1974013782"><em>2017 Football Outsiders Almanac</em></a>. Minnesota sent those types of blitzes at the eighth-highest rate in the league. When Zimmer chooses to dial up the heat, it’s incredibly effective. </p>
<p id="3B8Vau"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Cook. Every so often, there comes along a player who doesn’t have the athletic profile of an NFL star but who’s so gifted that it doesn’t matter. Minnesota is hoping that Cook will fit that bill. While the former Florida State standout had a disappointing combine showing, he lives on his vision and elusiveness. He has the chance to emerge as the kind of back who makes his line look better, rather than the other way around.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Marcus Peters" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5up2yPVV2upcY-aCO16BfDkXg_4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9186259/marcus_peters_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="8259va">13. Kansas City Chiefs</h3>
<p id="dVa3nh"><strong>2016 record: </strong>12-4</p>
<p id="XafAvy"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>13th on offense; 14th on defense</p>
<p id="7Fo8il"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Kansas City’s core features plenty of excellent, big-name players. Tight end Travis Kelce has emerged as maybe the most effective tight end in the league, Non-Gronk Division; edge rusher Justin Houston <em>finally </em>appears to be healthy heading into a season after missing 16 combined games over the last two years; and the secondary duo of safety Eric Berry and cornerback Marcus Peters is a one-two punch that stacks up with any in football. If Houston can get back to even 90 percent of what he was in 2015 and linebacker Derrick Johnson (who’s coming off his second torn Achilles and is now 34 years old) can overcome his recent injury issues, the Chiefs should be able to field a top-eight defense. </p>
<p id="fLAoLm">The offense probably can’t reach that level, but head coach Andy Reid’s group might not need to for this team to contend. This unit returns the majority of its starters, and third-round pick Kareem Hunt should be an adequate replacement for running back Spencer Ware, who was lost for the season after tearing the PCL and LCL in his right knee. With the blazing-fast Tyreek Hill abandoning a chunk of his kick return duties to take over as the team’s top outside target, Kansas City could also stumble into a downfield dimension that it’s lacked in recent years.</p>
<p id="g4gsSg"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The reason I made it this far without mentioning Patrick Mahomes II, the quarterback whom the Chiefs took after trading up 17 spots in the 2017 draft, is that Kansas City’s coaching staff seems adamant that he’ll spend his rookie season on the sideline. To some Chiefs fans, I’m sure the preferred outcome would be Mahomes trotting into a game around Week 4, showcasing his rocket arm, and replicating the adrenaline needle scene from <em>Pulp Fiction </em>by bringing life to an otherwise flat-lined offense. For that to happen, though, the team’s circumstances would have be dire.</p>
<p id="zSxfYD">Mahomes’s college work in Texas Tech’s Air Raid system was essentially performance art that channeled the <em>idea </em>of playing quarterback. His tape has moments when he looks like the most talented QB in this draft class, and his play in the preseason—while occasionally brilliant—revealed a raw but gifted player living on his natural ability as a passer and improviser. The nightmare scenario for this fall would involve Kansas City panicking midseason, tossing Mahomes into a game before he’s ready, and stunting the gunslinger’s development.</p>
<p id="M0UMY2">If Kansas City does decide to stick with incumbent starter Alex Smith, a different (but no less depressing) reality could set in. By taking Mahomes in the first round, the Chiefs bypassed the chance to add a first-round talent who could contribute immediately. Couple that with a quiet free agency period—the Chiefs’ <a href="https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space">cap situation</a> prevented them from adding much, as the signing of nose tackle Bennie Logan to replace Dontari Poe was the only notable move—and there’s little reason to believe that the 2017 Chiefs will be any better than the 2016 version.</p>
<p id="ka0uFA"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>Plus-16. That was the Chiefs’ 2016 turnover differential, tops in the NFL. Part of it was a byproduct of Kansas City’s conservative approach on offense (Smith threw 24.9 percent of his passes last season at or behind the line of scrimmage, per research by <a href="https://twitter.com/Cianaf">Cian Fahey</a>) and part of it was the presence of ball-hawking players like Peters on defense. There was some luck involved, though, as Kansas City recovered 15 fumbles and lost only nine. Fumble luck rarely stays consistent from year to year. </p>
<p id="8pduyD"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Hunt. The rookie out of Toledo will get plenty of early opportunities in this offense. Ware finished the 2016 campaign with 214 carries; the Chiefs need an effective ground game to be successful, and Hunt is the guy they’ll turn to in hopes of finding it.</p>
<h3 id="9rcyml">12. Carolina Panthers</h3>
<p id="Kq9plA"><strong>2016 record: </strong>6-10</p>
<p id="YoNKOi"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>25th on offense; 10th on defense</p>
<p id="G8otMF"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>By the end of last season, the Panthers defense finally resembled the group we’ve come to know in recent years. After experiencing early struggles and having its rookie starting cornerbacks picked apart, Carolina rebounded to finish fifth in weighted defensive DVOA. All the principal pieces from that unit return, and they’re joined by former and once-again Panthers Julius Peppers and Captain Munnerlyn, who will provide depth in the front four and secondary, respectively. If superhuman inside linebacker Luke Kuechly can come back in full force after a season-ending concussion, this team should have another top-shelf unit.</p>
<p id="920rRd">The overhaul for the Panthers this offseason came on the other side of the ball. Both starting tackles from last year are gone; they’ll be replaced by Matt Kalil, who landed a shocking five-year, $55 million deal, and some combination of career backup Daryl Williams and 2017 second-round pick Taylor Moton. Neither situation guarantees an upgrade, but the Panthers’ line was so banged up last season that the play up front should be better regardless. Only four teams <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit">lost more games</a> to injury along the offensive line than Carolina did in 2016. </p>
<p id="RHr1fe">Having stability in front of him should help Cam Newton bounce back from a disheartening campaign, too. And the Panthers used the first two rounds of this spring’s NFL draft to revamp their skill-position talent in a radical way. Eighth overall pick Christian McCaffrey figures to provide Carolina’s offense with a dimension it’s lacked since Newton was drafted six years ago. The Panthers threw only 13 percent of their passes to running backs last year, according to Warren Sharp’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35596777-warren-sharp-s-2017-football-preview"><em>2017 Football Preview</em></a>, second lowest in the league. The additions of McCaffrey and second-rounder Curtis Samuel should give this group two key intermediate targets to boost its efficiency. If McCaffrey’s knack for making life easier on his line translates to the NFL, this offense should see a larger jump than just about any other. </p>
<p id="2pbhGN"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Providing Newton with easier outlets and simpler throws, thus easing the gigantic burden he shouldered in 2016, sounds great in theory. Whether Newton can adjust and get the most out of his new weapons is a different story. Newton led the NFL in average pass length (10.27 yards) last season, and his 67.9 percent accuracy rate on throws 1 to 5 yards past the line of scrimmage was second worst in the league, according to Fahey. </p>
<p id="dIMiRI">The Panthers’ defense should be solid, yet Carolina could miss the playoffs if it struggles to incorporate McCaffrey and if the offensive line additions fall flat. Newton’s health is another concern. He threw two passes all preseason in order to rest his surgically repaired shoulder. Head coach Ron Rivera has said his quarterback will be ready to go in Week 1, but a diminished version of the 2015 MVP would be fatal for a team that relies so heavily on him. </p>
<p id="86dCHx"><strong>Stat of note:</strong> Minus-137.4 percent. That was the difference in Newton’s DVOA <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016">with and without pressure</a> last season, the third-highest discrepancy in the league after Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill. The pounding that Newton took from opposing pass rushes had a serious impact on his overall effectiveness, and now it will be up to Kalil and a pair of unproven options at right tackle to ensure that doesn’t happen again.</p>
<p id="BsBJLq"><strong>Breakout player:</strong> Defensive end Mario Addison. We’ve already discussed McCaffrey enough, so we’ll go elsewhere here. Addison’s career path has been fascinating. A former rotational player who served a big role on special teams, the 29-year-old signed a three-year deal (which included $9 million guaranteed) this offseason to move into a full-time spot at defensive end. Addison was the most <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/875054245644574720">effective third-down rusher</a> in the NFL as a situational threat last fall. I can’t wait to see what he does with more work.</p>
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<img alt="Mike Evans" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3e9dNuRgoBtPS3_ao_YWWIePr1Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9186261/mike_evans_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Brian Blanco/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="BiVODE">11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h3>
<p id="cq6d8C"><strong>2016 record: </strong>9-7</p>
<p id="YvvWzo"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>18th on offense; 12th on defense </p>
<p id="10wCr5"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Projecting how the Bucs can go from an NFC also-ran to a true contender is simple. By signing wide receiver DeSean Jackson in free agency and taking Alabama tight end O.J. Howard in the first round of the 2017 draft, Tampa Bay now boasts a collection of pass catchers that any quarterback would be lucky to have. The offensive line is still uninspiring in spots (particularly at left tackle, given Donovan Smith’s struggles in pass protection), but the pieces are all in place for this team to take a giant leap forward—if its quarterback can do the same. </p>
<p id="afSapl">For me, the most fascinating part of HBO’s <em>Hard Knocks </em>this summer was watching the interplay between Jameis Winston and Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter. In the first episode, Koetter explained to his third-year quarterback that while Winston’s M.O. to this point in his career has been to take risks on the field, that tendency is what could ultimately hold the team back in 2017. Only the Chargers, Jets, and Bears turned the ball over on a <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2016">higher percentage</a> of their drives last season.</p>
<p id="9mYMCz">If Winston can tone down his awful decision-making, Tampa Bay’s offense should soar. Jackson can manipulate coverage just by stepping on the field; that should allow superstar receiver Mike Evans to enjoy the most efficient season of his career. And if running back Doug Martin can return to 2015 form after serving a three-game suspension to start the season, the Bucs’ ground game should be much better than the 2016 version that finished 30th in rushing DVOA. Tampa Bay will be a clear playoff team if the offense plays up to its potential and the defense (which just added former Broncos safety T.J. Ward) continues to be strong against the pass. </p>
<p id="D4UxNK"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Both analysts and fans tend to assume that players with excellent draft pedigrees will eventually ditch their bad habits in the NFL. But that’s never a guarantee. It’s possible that Winston’s maddening knack for following eight perfect throws with a baffling pick is simply part of his makeup. The Bucs are a candidate to emerge as the most frustrating offense in the league, with Jackson spending too much time standing open downfield and Evans watching balls sail over his head. Considering what this group could<em> </em>be, that’d be a damn shame. </p>
<p id="bRzLT5">There’s no single factor (other than injury) that could sink the defense. Gerald McCoy is still a problem<em> </em>as an interior rusher, and the rest of the Bucs’ line should improve with the free-agent signing of Chris Baker and an added season of experience for defensive end Noah Spence. One concern is that a large part of Tampa Bay’s success against the pass last year (it ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA) was a resurgent campaign from 34-year-old cornerback Brent Grimes. Relying on defensive backs in their 30s (Ward will turn 31 in December) has historically been dangerous.</p>
<p id="CoeUdg"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>5.64 percent. That’s the percentage of Winston’s passes last season that were deemed “interceptable,” as charted by Fahey in the 2017 edition of his <a href="http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/29/pre-snap-reads-quarterback-catalogue-2017-19-99/"><em>Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue</em></a><em>. </em>The only QBs who had a higher clip were Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Barkley. It can’t be overstated how much an altered approach from Winston would mean to the Buccaneers’ chances. </p>
<p id="PbhfH5"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Spence. The ex–Ohio State star’s well-documented drug problems led to his transfer to a junior college and his fall to the second round of last year’s draft. His talent has never been in question, though, and his teammates have said they expect him to make a big leap in year two. It’s been 12 years since a Bucs defensive end hit double-digit sacks; after collecting 5.5 as a rookie, Spence may be the one to end that drought.</p>
<h3 id="0SgsyU">10. Philadelphia Eagles</h3>
<p id="gYkYYG"><strong>2016 record: </strong>7-9</p>
<p id="oW9mLZ"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>20th on offense; 4th on defense</p>
<p id="8qsDZo"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Eagles’ depth chart is one of the most complete in the NFL from top to bottom. Philly came into the 2017 offseason hurting for receiving talent and secondary help; the front office used every avenue imaginable to bolster both with high-level players. By trading for former Bills cornerback Ronald Darby, this defense might have acquired the piece it needs to reach a higher plane. The Eagles feature arguably the league’s most fearsome pass rush—even considering that Seattle dealt for Sheldon Richardson—after adding first-round pick Derek Barnett, free-agent signing Chris Long, and the newly acquired Timmy Jernigan to a group that already featured Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. </p>
<p id="DNAL2b">The offense isn’t nearly as talented at the top, but Philly addressed its main concerns through free agency and the draft. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery came to town on a one-year, $9.5 million prove-it deal that could turn into an absolute bargain if he stays healthy. Only nine receivers have averaged more yards per route than Jeffery since 2013, <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-falcons-sit-atop-first-batch-of-nfc-projections-for-2017">according to Pro Football Focus</a>. He couldn’t be more different from the lackluster receiving talent that quarterback Carson Wentz had at his disposal as a rookie. Jeffery, fellow free-agent addition Torrey Smith, Darren Sproles, and Zach Ertz give the Eagles a crop of pass catchers that can affect the game at every level. </p>
<p id="i4nXxC">With a sturdy offensive line in place, Philly now must hope that Wentz can take a major step forward in his second season. After lighting the league on fire through three games last fall, the North Dakota State product did his best Toonces the Driving Cat impression the rest of the year. He completed 62.4 percent of his passes, despite ranking 27th in average depth of target. </p>
<p id="k53DNG">A progression from Wentz’s first year to his second seemed reasonable even before Philadelphia introduced Jeffery to the mix. If Wentz shows signs of improvement, the Eagles should emerge as contenders in the NFC East. </p>
<p id="iUAURf"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Similar to the thought process detailed above with Winston, it is far from certain that Wentz will take a step forward with more time and better weapons. His throws should become easier now that he has a pair of field-stretching options, but if his accuracy doesn’t improve, the presence of Jeffery and Smith won’t make a difference. This offense also has injury histories to worry about. Jeffery’s hamstrings seem to be constantly plotting against him, and 35-year-old left tackle Jason Peters has back problems in his past. Philly needs both on the field to have a chance of hitting its ceiling. </p>
<p id="ZYdZIx">The margin for error is larger on defense, but the cornerback spot opposite Darby remains a question. And the Eagles don’t want to find out what life would be like without Malcolm Jenkins or Rodney McLeod on the back end. </p>
<p id="Bgoclo"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>31.6 percent. That was the Eagles’ pressure rate last season, third in the league. Then they went out and added a first-round pick who broke Reggie White’s University of Tennessee sack record, a veteran defensive end who should excel in an attacking role, and a potential stud defensive tackle who cost the franchise next to nothing in a trade. I don’t know if you can tell, but I <em>love </em>this collection of players. </p>
<p id="R5DGVh"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Jernigan. The former Florida State standout is entering his fourth professional season, and his move from Baltimore’s scheme to coordinator Jim Schwartz’s penetrating system could unleash him in a way we’ve never seen. Jernigan is a stout run defender who should help Philly overcome the loss of nose tackle Bennie Logan; with Cox seeing plenty of double-teams on the other side of the line, Jernigan could ratchet up his sack total to new heights in 2017.</p>
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<img alt="Philip Rivers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Is0omaTOobloiYxg7_tWsFqkcyA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9186263/philip_rivers_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="xCwFeW"><strong>9. Los Angeles Chargers </strong></h3>
<p id="DwmDjk"><strong>2016 record: </strong>5-11 </p>
<p id="T5WUiE"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>18th on offense; 7th on defense</p>
<p id="1rDYdG"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Of all the teams in these rankings, the Chargers coming in at no. 9 may seem the most surprising. Let’s start with their 5-11 finish from a season ago. In no way, other than record, was this squad that putrid. It blew six fourth-quarter leads, including in some gut-wrenching losses that were the result of fluke sequences. In terms of point differential, the Chargers (minus-13) more closely resembled an 8-8 team in 2016. </p>
<p id="aPiXao">They were also decimated by injury, although that trend has carried into this year. Standout inside linebacker Denzel Perryman is already on the IR (with the possibility for return) with an ankle injury, and second-round pick Forrest Lamp (who was expected to start at guard) is done for the season after tearing his ACL. But that doesn’t mean this group will be more banged up than it was in 2016. The Chargers finished 31st in adjusted games lost last fall, and blind luck suggests they should be healthier this time around.</p>
<p id="NBdjhx">The case for improved health leading to better results starts in two places: at wide receiver and on the offensive line. Let’s not forget how devastating Keenan Allen can be when he’s on the field. Quarterback Philip Rivers has quite the stable of pass-catching options in Allen, tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, and outside playmakers Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. If the offensive line (which will feature three new starters) does its job even once in a while, this should be an efficient passing game. The ground game should be better this year, too, with head coach Anthony Lynn coming aboard after engineering the NFL’s top rushing offense in Buffalo last season. Running back Melvin Gordon looked like a different player in his second campaign; now, he may have a scheme that lets him flourish.</p>
<p id="d18eLv">That’s already a handful of reasons to feel optimistic about Los Angeles’s 2017 chances, and I haven’t even gotten to a defense laden with young talent that finished in the top 10 by DVOA last season. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram form what may be the best outside pass-rushing duo in the league, and Casey Hayward and a healthy Jason Verrett have a chance to push for that same title at cornerback. Even with Perryman on the shelf, new coordinator Gus Bradley’s crew should be menacing. </p>
<p id="tx5dFq"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The Chargers may legitimately be cursed, and no other analysis will be relevant if the injuries pile up yet again. Rivers had the second-biggest DVOA gap in the league last season between when he faced pressure and when he didn’t; if the offensive line falls apart or the new additions fail to click, the 35-year-old quarterback may not have a chance to sustain a consistent passing game. Rivers has plenty of mileage on his body at this point. While he’s been a ridiculously steady presence for more than a decade, there’s a scenario where he wears down come December—especially if the running game doesn’t prove more effective than it was during the 2016 campaign.</p>
<p id="Qt7GHR">There’s also the possibility that coaching changes that seem to make sense on paper don’t pan out in reality. Bradley brings his Seahawks-inspired version of the 4-3 to L.A., and while the Chargers look to have the personnel to make it work, transitioning between schemes can be rocky.</p>
<p id="eBU9GZ"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>285. That’s the number of <em>combined </em>snaps that Verrett and Allen played last season. Their availability to stay on the field in 2017 will go a long way toward determining the Chargers’ fate. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="t7mNpm"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bosa. It’s cheap to say a guy who recorded double-digit sacks as a rookie is going to break out, but I think the 22-year-old phenom has a chance to reach another level in his second season. Bosa managed 59 QB pressures in just 12 games in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. That gave him the third-best pass-rush productivity in the league, behind only Von Miller and Khalil Mack. Bosa is my pick for Defensive Player of the Year. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargersRobert Mays2017-09-05T10:15:54-04:002017-09-05T10:15:54-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part II: Don’t Bet on These Teams—but Don’t Be Surprised If One Breaks Through
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<img alt="Todd Gurley, J.J. Watt, and Drew Brees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xi7FudDHxZ4uVL_GU8Amu8LhB5Q=/287x0:2954x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/56519891/nfl_power_rankings_mays_2_getty_ringer.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>What’s it look like when a team is terrifying on one side of the ball but maddeningly inconsistent on the other? Just ask the Rams, Saints, Ravens, and Lions.</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="RUzcCS">On Monday, I gave scouting reports for <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers">the eight teams I expect to finish near the bottom of the league</a> in 2017. As we keep <em>The Ringer</em>’s preseason power rankings rolling, I broke down the eights teams that I think should finish just outside of the playoff picture. Most of these teams boast stellar groups on one side of the ball—and wholly uninteresting units on the other. </p>
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<img alt="2017 NFL Preview" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WVyoHIYIlvq8ljC_dCAxz6R1lWo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9107711/2017_NFL_preview.jpg">
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<p id="pOsurl">As a reminder, this week I’ll be ranking all 32 teams before the season. My typical biases for great offensive line play and against awful quarterbacks will almost certainly shine through, but this is my best effort at trying to sort out how hopeful each franchise should be heading into the year. And don’t miss the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers">third</a> and <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/7/16266102/preseason-power-rankings-part-four-patriots-cowboys-steelers">fourth</a> installments in this ranking series.</p>
<h3 id="XJq1zf"><strong>24. Los Angeles Rams</strong></h3>
<p id="BE1GGp"><strong>2016 record: </strong>4-12</p>
<p id="3fNIIy"><strong>2016 </strong><a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings"><strong>Football Outsiders DVOA</strong></a><strong> finish: </strong>32nd on offense; 15th on defense</p>
<p id="fAq8R2"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Jared Goff’s rookie season was a nightmare. After shelling out years’ worth of draft capital to trade up and take Goff with last year’s no. 1 pick, the Rams plopped their prized quarterback prospect into the worst situation imaginable. Playing behind a porous offensive line with limited weapons in a poorly designed offense, Goff was about as bad as any NFL starting quarterback can be. His 5.31 yards per attempt was the eighth lowest average for a rookie QB with at least seven starts since the merger and the worst mark since Jimmy Clausen’s rookie campaign in 2010. </p>
<p id="Cvt1sF">Building a positive outlook for the 2017 Rams starts with putting Goff on the right track. And the 22-year-old looks much more comfortable in new head coach Sean McVay’s offense than he did in Jeff Fisher’s system a year ago. It will be an uphill battle for McVay to purge Goff of the bad habits that his disastrous rookie season wrought, but the first-year head coach proved in Washington that he’s adept at constructing an offense that makes life easy on a quarterback. If McVay’s tutelage—and improved pass protection bolstered by left tackle Andrew Whitworth—can help Goff turn things around, this season will go down as a victory. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="jKyboW"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part I: Focus on the Future, Not the Present","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ers"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part III: The Rising, the Resurgent, and the Chargers","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="TSZbCE">Goff, recently acquired receiver Sammy Watkins, and the rest of the offense will garner most of the attention in Los Angeles, but the unit that should keep the Rams relevant is the defense, now orchestrated by coordinator Wade Phillips. This group finished 15th in defensive DVOA a season ago, but that’s not indicative of its talent. L.A.’s defensive potential hinges largely on the presence of Aaron Donald, who still has yet to report to the team as he seeks a new contract. With Donald and defensive end Robert Quinn in the fold, the pieces are there for Phillips to put together a top-five defense that could keep the Rams in every game they play. </p>
<p id="L5vtEd"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>There may not be a team in the NFL with a wider range of possible outcomes than the Rams. The rosy scenario above could get L.A. above .500 and in contention for a playoff spot, but the dour view of its season is pretty damn bleak. McVay and a scheme change are just what Goff needs after his gruesome debut, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll suddenly transform into a useful quarterback. Even with Whitworth on board, the offensive line is a massive question mark, and there’s a chance two years in a miserable setting have broken running back Todd Gurley. </p>
<p id="x58y5S">Phillips would be the coordinator I’d choose if I were building a team from scratch, yet concerns remain about his personnel in Los Angeles. If Donald sticks by his guns and decides to sit out games, his absence would exacerbate the Rams’ lack of proven talent at outside cornerback, where it’s the franchise-tagged Trumaine Johnson and not much else. For the Rams to be relevant, their defense needs to be among the best in the league. If it falls short of that, expect a long year in Los Angeles. </p>
<p id="gsbPpo"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>7.9. According to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2017-Essential/dp/1974013782"><em>Football Outsiders Almanac 2017</em></a>, that’s the average number of spots in DVOA that a defense has improved in its first season with Phillips as the coordinator.</p>
<p id="lb2fN7"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams’ depth chart at wide receiver is crowded after the team signed Robert Woods and traded for Watkins, but it already seems like Kupp is the guy who Goff will look to in a pinch. The third-round pick out of Eastern Washington is a polished route runner who should eat in this offense if given the opportunity.</p>
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<img alt="Jay Ajayi" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/terz2pYarO6gA2NfrP0FS0fuVVQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9178743/jay_ajayi_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Justin K. Aller/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="Am0F8g"><strong>23. Miami Dolphins</strong></h3>
<p id="jKkQuD"><strong>2016 record: </strong>10-6</p>
<p id="dpqiYn"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>14th on offense; 19th on defense</p>
<p id="lIGfK6"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Coming into this fall, the Dolphins offense seemed like it’d rank among the most exciting units in the NFL. The trio of DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills stacks up to any receiving corps in football, and there was plenty to get excited about with a group featuring Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, Jay Ajayi at running back, and head coach Adam Gase calling the shots. </p>
<p id="V2hk9t">The scariest iteration of that offense was lost when Tannehill’s ACL injury cost him the 2017 season, but even <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/7/16106812/jay-cutler-miami-dolphins-signing">with Jay Cutler running show</a>, there’s a version of this unit that can still tear defenses apart. Gase helped engineer the best season of Cutler’s career as the Bears offensive coordinator in 2015, and he chose Cutler over backup quarterback Matt Moore after Miami learned about Tannehill’s fate. This team’s ceiling with the Cutler-Gase combination we saw in Chicago is that of a fringe playoff team, especially considering the defense has the talent to be formidable. </p>
<p id="emqOio"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Take it from me, a Bears fan who spent eight years rooting for Cutler: It always looks better on paper. The notion that Cutler isn’t a significant downgrade from Tannehill in this offense is laughable. Miami’s potential took a massive hit the moment that Tannehill was lost for the season, and I’d be willing to bet that plenty of Dolphins fans will bang their heads against the wall by year’s end after watching Cutler regularly toss the ball with no regard for where it lands. </p>
<p id="jFUtEO">Miami’s concerns on offense don’t end with a 34-year-old quarterback who came out of retirement in early August, though. Center Mike Pouncey is healthy now, but it’s been five years since he played 16 games. The interior of the Dolphins’ offensive line that includes converted tackle Jermon Bushrod is already a concern; if Pouncey is forced to miss any time, things would only get worse. </p>
<p id="WZZsBI">The Dolphins had a middle-of-the-road defense under coordinator (and current Broncos head coach) Vance Joseph last season, and aside from the front four, there’s no reason to assume they should have an above-average group in 2017. Cornerback Byron Maxwell and safety Reshad Jones are nice pieces, but free safety Nate Allen is on his third team in three years for a reason. Miami has some stars up front, but this defense may need time to come into its own under new coordinator Matt Burke. </p>
<p id="qyghYP"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>31.4 percent. That’s Miami’s <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/defense-and-pass-pressure-2016">pressure rate</a> last season, the fourth-best mark in the league, according to Football Outsiders. The Dolphins’ receiving corps is fun, but a defensive line that includes Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh, William Hayes, and 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris is the clear strength of this roster. </p>
<p id="EEuqJd"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Parker. It feels like I’ve been saying this for years, but this seems like the season that the 2015 first-round pick is going to emerge. Injuries and bad habits have hampered him to this point (and he continues to occasionally struggle with the finer points of the position), but he’s way too talented to be a nonfactor as long as he stays healthy.</p>
<h3 id="Ydw3Zj"><strong>22. New Orleans Saints</strong></h3>
<p id="k0q7xI"><strong>2016 record: </strong>7-9 </p>
<p id="3IAIIr"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>6th on offense; 31st on defense</p>
<p id="2ncAB6"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Offenses don’t get more consistent than the Saints in the Sean Payton–Drew Brees era. New Orleans’s worst finish by offensive DVOA since 2010 is 11th, a fact that is absolutely ridiculous. Brees, at 38, has shown no signs of slowing down, and he should once again lead one of the league’s most potent groups—even with wide receiver Brandin Cooks’s offseason trade, fellow wideout Willie Snead’s suspension, and left tackle Terron Armstead’s labrum injury that will sideline him until at least October. By drafting former Wisconsin tackle Ryan Ramczyk in the first round of the 2017 draft as an eventual replacement for veteran Zach Strief, the Saints should be able to ease the blow of losing Armstead for a chunk of time. And their collection of pass catchers, that includes Ted Ginn Jr. and ascending star Michael Thomas, should help make the passing game strong from the start. </p>
<p id="n4pJDB">The New Orleans offense is a known commodity, and that’s why it’s the defense that could turn the Saints into a real problem for NFC opponents. Defensive efficiency tends to have more variance than offensive metrics, which makes this team’s recent run of futility all the more remarkable. New Orleans has finished 31st, 32nd, and 31st in defensive DVOA in the past three seasons, respectively. That shouldn’t be possible. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen is heading into his third season as the defensive coordinator, so a change in leadership won’t be what ultimately turns this group around. That will be dependent on the slew of moves that the Saints recently made to add new blood on that side of the ball.</p>
<p id="p1I6IM">New Orleans used two early 2017 picks to shore up its secondary, drafting Ohio State cornerback Marshon Lattimore in the first round and Utah safety Marcus Williams in the second. The hope in the Crescent City is that those two can boost a defensive backfield that’s been paper-thin in recent years. If that happens, 2016 first-round pick Sheldon Rankins breaks out after being hampered by injuries as a rookie, and the franchise’s flurry of signings at inside linebacker (Craig Robertson, A.J. Klein, and Manti Te’o) plays well, the Saints could finish somewhere around 20th in defensive DVOA. With this offense, that’s enough to be a player in the NFC South. </p>
<p id="7gz3Qf"><strong>Worst-case scenario:</strong> Even typing what I just did above was difficult. Based on New Orleans’s track record the past few years, there is no reason to believe that it can find and develop talent on defense. To be this bad on that side of the ball for this long borders on impressive. General manager Mickey Loomis has devoted countless resources to turning the tide, but nothing has made a difference. To see the Saints finish in the bottom third of the NFL in defensive efficiency is expected; if they struggle on defense again, a powerful offense won’t be enough to save them. </p>
<p id="l4FvYe">As long as Brees is healthy, this offense is going to score points, although the cliff is never far away for a quarterback who’s creeping toward 40. The horror-movie scenario for the Saints starts with Brees missing extended time or dramatically falling off in production. But that’s about as bad as it can get. Even with Armstead out, this offense should roll as long as Brees stays true to form. His ability to get the ball out of his hand quickly has long made his interior linemen more important than his blockers on the outside. Center Max Unger should be ready for Week 1 after having surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury this offseason, and free-agent acquisition Larry Warford should give New Orleans another stout presence at guard. </p>
<p id="nYrPhg"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>15.7 percent. That’s how often the Saints offense used a six-lineman formation in 2016, the second-highest mark in the league. Their offense runs through Brees, but with a talented line and a stable of running backs that now includes Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, <em>and </em>rookie Alvin Kamara, they should be able to routinely gash opponents on the ground. </p>
<p id="Tz4pky"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Rankins. Rookie seasons are hard enough for players who don’t suffer major injuries, and the 2016 first-rounder had to recover from a broken leg before returning to the lineup for the final nine games of last season. He’s the ideal defensive tackle for the modern game—a twitchy penetrator who can bother quarterbacks no matter how quickly they release the ball. The Saints need him to be a difference-maker in Year 2, and he has the talent to be exactly that.</p>
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<img alt="Joe Flacco" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Q_06tt6OAgniBtVXNQ7Dt9yj42I=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9178779/joe_flacco_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Patrick Smith/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="DLGsh6"><strong>21. Baltimore Ravens</strong></h3>
<p id="3F7gk4"><strong>2016 record: </strong>8-8</p>
<p id="4wC7A8"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>24th on offense; 6th on defense</p>
<p id="U7reLw"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>There’s no reason to believe that Baltimore's defense will be worse than it was a year ago, and that should put it squarely among the best units in football. The Ravens defense was fourth in rushing DVOA in 2016. This group should be miserable for opponents to rush against, even without end and stud run-stopper Timmy Jernigan (who was traded to Philadelphia this offseason). Nose tackle Brandon Williams, the owner of a new five-year, $52.5 million deal that pays him $33.8 million guaranteed, is one of the best run defenders in the league. And the combination of 2016 undrafted standout Michael Pierce and a slew of recent mid-round picks should be able to make up for Jernigan’s absence. </p>
<p id="dbpcIY">The relative weak point of the Ravens defense last season was its ability to slow teams through the air, and the front office threw plenty of resources at addressing that problem this offseason. The Ravens gave former Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson a four-year, $34 million deal to play alongside Eric Weddle and form what should be one of the best safety tandems in the NFL. Baltimore then used its 2017 first-round pick on Alabama corner Marlon Humphrey before scooping up Houston pass rusher (and ridiculous athlete) Tyus Bowser in the second round. All the pieces are in place for this to be a complete defense with no glaring holes. </p>
<p id="8lby9G"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>It’s important that Baltimore’s defense has a chance to be dominant, because if the Ravens are going to be relevant in 2017, that unit will have to carry them. In theory, Joe Flacco should have more weapons at his disposal than he did last year, as wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and pass-catching back Danny Woodhead are now in the fold. But both are better suited for complementary roles than starring ones. The team’s hope is that 2015 first-round pick Breshad Perriman can make the leap in his second full season and give the passing game a dimension it has otherwise lacked. While the 31-year-old Mike Wallace still has some gas left in the tank, the young Perriman has to produce more than the 33 passes he caught last fall for this receiving corps to truly stretch the field.</p>
<p id="GFGKWB">Even if the receiving options work out as planned, though, the ceiling for this offense remains limited. Flacco is a 6-foot-6 personification of the shrug emoji at quarterback. He also happens to have the highest cap hit in football this year. And for some reason, the Ravens insist on throwing the ball more than just about every other team in the league. Flacco finished second in the NFL in passing attempts (672) last year and lost out to Drew Brees by a single throw. With Baltimore’s defense, it’d make sense for this team to rely on a ground game and limit Flacco’s knack for backbreaking mistakes. Only there isn’t much to be excited about in the backfield, either: Kenneth Dixon is out for the year with a meniscus tear, which means Terrance West should get the majority of the work behind an offensive line that’s replacing three of its starters. The Ravens offense puts a cap on how far they can go, and that’s assuming the defense is just as good as advertised. </p>
<p id="Gk7OPB"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>25. That’s the percentage of Baltimore’s passes last season that went to the left side of the field, the lowest mark in the league, per Football Outsiders. No team in football threw to the middle of the field more often than the Ravens, and with Woodhead in the backfield and Maclin in the slot, that trend appears poised to continue. </p>
<p id="Vdpzkx"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Pierce. As an out-of-nowhere undrafted free agent, the 6-foot, 240-pound defensive end got 376 snaps as a rotational player last year. Following Jernigan’s trade, though, he should see his role drastically increase. To understand how the Ravens defense is consistently great, look no further than their ability to find hidden gems like Pierce. The pairing of Pierce and Williams in the middle could prove overwhelming.</p>
<h3 id="7Mz4lo"><strong>20. Washington Redskins</strong></h3>
<p id="K93wPq"><strong>2016 record: </strong>8-7-1</p>
<p id="9TorcE"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>5th on offense; 25th on defense</p>
<p id="6nfyTd"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Washington’s best hope is its offense sustaining the success that it had last season despite all the moving parts. Head coach Jay Gruden will resume play-calling duties with former coordinator Sean McVay now in Los Angeles, and Terrelle Pryor and 2016 first-round pick Josh Doctson will step in for departed receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon, who both landed big deals in free agency. Elsewhere, though, the offensive personnel is nearly identical to last year. The line, coached by Bill Callahan, should be among the league’s best. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder is an excellent option in the slot, and with tight end Jordan Reed back after missing time with a toe injury, Kirk Cousins will have his best receiving weapon by the time the season begins. </p>
<p id="u7L28u">If Pryor and Doctson can help this team overcome the losses of Jackson and Garcon, Washington should again feature a top-tier offense. Pair that with the franchise’s new blood on defense and you have the ingredients for a significant step forward. Losing nose tackle Phil Taylor to a season-ending quadriceps injury is a blow, especially considering the positive reports on the former first-rounder during training camp. But slotting former Alabama stars Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson into this defense could provide an immediate boost. The front office never could’ve imagined that Allen, one of the best players in college football last year, would have been available with the 17th overall pick. When he was, whoever makes these decisions for the Redskins had to be doing backflips.</p>
<p id="YA7VBl"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>There are worse ways to replace two excellent receivers than with Pryor and Doctson. But just because their names will fill Jackson and Garçon’s spots on the depth chart doesn’t mean they’ll have the same level of production. Jackson’s value was most apparent when he hauled in 60-yard touchdown passes, but the hidden benefits he provided to this offense were just as important. His speed forced defenses to tip their coverage early, and his field-stretching ability created an ocean of grass for players like Crowder and Reed to roam. Even if Pryor emerges as a star in his one-year, prove-it deal, this group will almost surely miss the dynamic that Jackson brought to the table. </p>
<p id="NBdSHE">Cousins has put up big numbers in Washington’s offense in the past two years, but he’s done so in some of the cushiest surroundings a quarterback could imagine. He’s had a varied, talented receiving corps, an excellent offensive line, and top-tier play-calling and design. If any of those factors falls off in 2017, we may see just how fragile the ecosystem of this offense— and Cousins’s ability to thrive in it—actually is. If Washington takes even a small step back on the offensive side of the ball—say, from fifth in DVOA to 12th—that might be enough to knock it from playoff contention, particularly given all of the team’s question marks on defense. </p>
<p id="wslfuq"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>455. That’s the number of Cousins’s passing yards last season that were “created” by Washington’s receivers, according to Cian Fahey in his <em>Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. </em>That total was the second highest in the league, behind only Matt Ryan’s 459. The pass catchers in this offense do <em>a lot</em> to boost Cousins’s efficiency; now, he’ll be working with two new options on the outside.</p>
<p id="6wBwFv"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Allen. It almost feels cheap to slot Allen in here, but what the hell. Questions about his arthritic shoulders and disappointing numbers at the combine caused Allen to tumble down the draft board, but anyone who’s ever seen him play knows he’s capable of wrecking a game. The versatile defensive lineman picked up 30.5 tackles for loss, including 22.5 sacks, in his final two years at Alabama. I’d guess his move to the NFL is going to work out just fine. </p>
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<img alt="Golden Tate" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/muqXsA_YtJ5I13I2qg0EKpkBrp8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9178787/golden_tate_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Gregory Shamus/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="RMBLmu"><strong>19. Detroit Lions</strong></h3>
<p id="BPCYcF"><strong>2016 record: </strong>9-7 </p>
<p id="bgBRrn">2<strong>016 DVOA finish: </strong>15th on offense; 32nd on defense</p>
<p id="nqV30F"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Lions made Matthew Stafford the highest-paid player in NFL history last month. Even if that’s a product of circumstance more than ability, Detroit’s success hinges on its well-compensated passer. On paper, the Lions offense looks intriguing, especially given some of the moves the team made this offseason. GM Bob Quinn handed $39.5 million combined in guaranteed money to guard T.J. Lang and tackle Ricky Wagner to revamp the right side of the offensive line and breathe life into a stagnant running game. Losing left tackle Taylor Decker to a torn labrum for at least the first half of this fall is a tough break, yet even with Rams castoff Greg Robinson taking Decker’s spot, this group should be better than it was in 2016. </p>
<p id="C8vIPI">The Lions’ ground game finished 25th in DVOA last year. If they get stronger play up front and a healthy season from running back Ameer Abdullah, they could be dangerous. They boast one of the best receiving corps in the league, and Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, running back Theo Riddick, and emergent rookie Kenny Golladay give Stafford a ton of options with few skill set redundancies. Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter constructed a scheme that maximizes Stafford’s strengths and utilizes the weapons at his disposal. This group could crack the DVOA top 10 if it stays healthy from here on out. </p>
<p id="mWkU4J"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Even if all the offensive pieces fall into place, there isn’t much reason to have faith in a defense that ranked dead last in DVOA in 2016. Pass rusher Ziggy Ansah tallied 14.5 sacks in 2015 but managed just two last year while dealing with a high ankle sprain that torpedoed pretty much his entire campaign. For the Lions defense to pose problems, Ansah needs to return to top form, and he only came off the PUP list on Friday (though putting him on it was thought to be precautionary). </p>
<p id="CAfDc6">A resurgent season from Ansah and development from Detroit’s existing talent is paramount since the Lions didn’t add much on the defensive side of the ball. Jarrad Davis, a 2017 first-round pick, should slide in as a starter at inside linebacker, and former Raiders first-rounder D.J. Hayden will start at cornerback opposite standout Darius Slay—although I’m not sure that’s a good thing. And beyond second-year defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, who’s a strong candidate to take a leap this fall, there isn’t much cause for optimism with this group. Unless the Lions’ passing game is elite, this team seems likely to have another middling year. </p>
<p id="mpgOXZ"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>6.66. According to Football Outsiders, that’s the league-high number of plays that the Lions averaged per drive in 2016. That ability to sustain possessions, fueled by a dink-and-dunk passing approach, is the main reason Detroit was able to overcome a porous defense and limit the amount of points it gave up a season ago. </p>
<p id="qqlzfm"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Robinson. After playing in Alabama’s college system that stresses control more than penetration, Robinson took some time to adjust to a one-gap role in Detroit. By late last year, though, the 317-pound defensive tackle looked like a monster on the interior of the Lions front. With 2016 surprise Kerry Hyder already out with a torn Achilles, there will be a huge onus on Robinson to create pressure up the middle.</p>
<h3 id="KNduos"><strong>18. Cincinnati Bengals</strong></h3>
<p id="n072bW"><strong>2016 record: </strong>6-9-1</p>
<p id="kPWqwL"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>11th on offense; 18th on defense </p>
<p id="0oBLes"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Most of the teams in this section of the rankings have the potential to be excellent on one side of the ball but should struggle on the other. Not the Bengals. Cincinnati has talent on both offense and defense; its issue is that the ceiling for neither unit is particularly high. </p>
<p id="upPHit">The strength of this roster should be its collection of pass catchers. A.J. Green remains ridiculous; tight end Tyler Eifert is a red zone nightmare when healthy; and this offense now boasts John Ross, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL combine history. With Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon in the backfield, Cincinnati should have plenty of talent to bolster quarterback Andy Dalton. The issue will be whether this offensive line can allow those playmakers to flourish. It wasn’t long ago that the Bengals had one of the best lines in the league. Those days are a distant memory. With guard Kevin Zeitler leaving for a record-setting deal in free agency and 35-year-old left tackle Andrew Whitworth going to the Rams, the two best members of last season’s line are now elsewhere. The Bengals have been planning on this eventuality for years, drafting tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher in the first and second rounds of the 2015 draft. If each can take a step forward in 2017, this offense has the skill-position talent to be formidable. </p>
<p id="DFuB4X">The more inspiring homegrown talent may be on defense. Cincy hammered the edge-rusher spots in this year’s draft, taking Kansas State defensive end and combine star Jordan Willis in the third round before grabbing Auburn standout Carl Lawson in the fourth. If that duo can inject life into the front four—and if cornerback William Jackson III, who missed his entire rookie campaign with a torn pectoral muscle, can make an immediate impact—the Bengals defense could return to form after falling out of the top 11 in DVOA last year for the first time in six seasons. </p>
<p id="YpJLhv"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>There’s a very real chance that this offensive line is one of the league’s worst in 2017. That’d be problematic for any team, but especially for a group that has Dalton at quarterback. Among 34 qualified passers in 2016, only six had a larger DVOA discrepancy with and without pressure. When Dalton was piloting the most efficient passing offense in football two years ago on his way to becoming an MVP candidate, he did it behind excellent protection. That went out the window last fall, and this season should be no different with two unproven options on the outside and converted tackle Andre Smith at guard. </p>
<p id="13re5E">The floor for the Bengals defense is considerably higher simply by virtue of it having no major flaws. Yet it also seems unlikely to vault into the elite. Any hope for Cincinnati being notably better than it was a year ago lies in this rookie class coming in and contributing from day one.</p>
<p id="xUhLLd"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>96 percent. According to Football Outsiders, that’s the league-leading rate at which Bengals cornerbacks stayed on a particular side of the field last season. The Bengals also rushed four on 79 percent of plays, second highest in the NFL. Cincy values scheme integrity above all else. It’s safe to say that head coach Marvin Lewis isn’t exactly a risk-taker. </p>
<p id="rny2HA"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Lawson. The 6-foot-2 261-pounder was consistently hampered by injuries at Auburn. He tore his ACL during spring practice in 2014, and was limited by a hip injury for much of the subsequent season. He returned to form in 2016, though, tallying 13.5 tackles for loss, including nine sacks, while staying healthy for the entire fall. He’s making a transition in Cincinnati’s defense from a straight edge rusher to a hybrid role that will include plenty of time at inside linebacker. The early returns suggest that he could be one of the steals of this draft.</p>
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<img alt="Jadeveon Clowney&nbsp;" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/obL-Ln1c9Azg0xbplCo7df2Ud3I=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9178799/jadeveon_clowney_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Tim Warner/Getty Images</cite>
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<h3 id="PW5jmW"><strong>17. Houston Texans</strong></h3>
<p id="RXHDmE"><strong>2016 record: </strong>9-7</p>
<p id="iZ3d3v"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>30th on offense; 7th on defense</p>
<p id="nlqQAe"><strong>Best-case scenario:</strong> The offense can’t be <em>worse</em>, right? Houston’s Brock Osweiler experiment was among the worst calamities in recent NFL history, and somehow the Texans still managed to make the playoffs. That’s because of the defense—a group that in 2017 has a chance to be truly terrifying. </p>
<p id="to2HeM">Houston finished seventh in defensive DVOA last season without <em>the best defensive player of his generation</em>. Consider that for a moment. Watching the Texans give the Patriots fits in the divisional round of the playoffs without J.J. Watt has to inspire optimism about what this crew can be this fall. While back issues for a guy pushing 300 pounds are always worrisome, Houston’s front four should be ferocious if Watt can return at anything close to his prior form. The combination of Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus would give the Texans arguably the best front in the game. (I’ll also accept applications from the Seahawks and Eagles.) </p>
<p id="oRKbgo">Losing cornerback A.J. Bouye in free agency stings, but the Texans have the personnel to overcome it with 2015 first-round pick Kevin Johnson coming back from injury. If either Tom Savage or rookie Deshaun Watson can give Houston anything resembling competent QB play, there’s no reason that the Texans shouldn’t pose the same type of threat that they did a year ago. </p>
<p id="fOFu6C"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Despite the early reviews that Watson looked game-ready in training camp, it seems as though he has a ways to go before the Texans feel comfortable starting him. Houston was almost impossibly bad on offense last year; it’s possible that the Savage-Watson duo will be only marginally better. </p>
<p id="tAsUFH">Quarterback consistency isn’t the Texans’ only concern on that side of the ball, either. Right tackle Derek Newton suffered one of the most gruesome injuries imaginable by tearing both patellar tendons on the same play last season. His future is uncertain, and Houston will ride with Kendall Lamm and Breno Giacomini in his stead. There’s a chance that Chris Clark slides into that spot, too, but as of now he’s expected to man the left side while stalwart Duane Brown continues his holdout. The downgrade from Brown to Clark at that position can’t be overstated. </p>
<p id="Mdyxfh">The Texans’ defensive floor will remain high no matter what happens with Watt, but it’s possible that we’ve already seen the best of him, considering his combination of recent ailments. (I don’t believe it, but it’s theoretically in play.) There’s also a chance that Houston will miss Bouye more than the casual fan would think; even with solid replacement options, overcoming the loss of a top-tier corner could cause some hiccups. </p>
<p id="FdQABM"><strong>Stat of note:</strong> 5.7 yards. That’s the average yards per pass that the Texans gave up on play-action throws last season, according to Football Outsiders. That’s an absurdly low number given that play-action is typically one of the most efficient types of plays in football. This defense is pretty damn good. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="GqF03Z"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Nose tackle D.J. Reader. It’s not easy to find a diamond in the rough with this Texans roster. We know most of the relevant pieces. Still, Reader has a chance to make a big-time impact after being picked in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. The Clemson product is the least notable member of the Texans front four, yet he should nonetheless play a key role on one of the league’s premier defenses.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphinsRobert Mays2017-09-04T10:30:09-04:002017-09-04T10:30:09-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part I: Focus on the Future, Not the Present
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<p>The Jets, Bills, Browns, and Bears all have long-term plans in place—just don’t expect much in 2017</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="HuNNji">The wait is over. In just three short days, there will be an NFL game that matters, and that’s welcome news for all of us who’ve been counting down the hours until <em>real</em> professional football is back. </p>
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<p id="IMxKOl">To cap off <em>The Ringer</em>’s 2017 NFL preview package, I’ll be ranking all 32 teams, in tiers of eight, from the worst to the best. My typical biases—in favor of terrific offensive line play and against awful quarterbacks—will almost certainly shine through. Yet this is my effort to determine how hopeful each fan base should feel heading into the regular season. </p>
<p id="9q1Xom">To kick things off, here are the teams likely to top the 2018 draft. And don’t miss the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins">second</a>, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers">third</a>, and <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/7/16266102/preseason-power-rankings-part-four-patriots-cowboys-steelers">fourth</a> installments in this ranking series.</p>
<h3 id="jD5J6Y"><strong>32. New York Jets</strong></h3>
<p id="0O7TVE"><strong>2016 finish: 5-11</strong></p>
<p id="4zmBxE"><strong>2016 </strong><a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings"><strong>Football Outsiders DVOA</strong></a><strong> finish: </strong>31st on offense; 21st on defense</p>
<p id="80ojyV"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>It’s no secret that the Jets are shopping their big contracts by <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/1/16244048/jets-seahawks-sheldon-richardson-trade">trading defensive end Sheldon Richardson</a> (who’s on the final year of his rookie deal) to the Seahawks and reportedly putting 31-year-old running back <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/matt-forte-rumors-jets-trading-fake-news-article-1.3459466">Matt Forte on the market</a>. An ideal season would start with the front office unloading as many players who have no long-term value in exchange for draft assets as possible. On the field, getting promising returns from the last two draft classes and having Leonard Williams emerge as a full-blown superstar would be good—as long as neither does enough to take New York out of the catbird seat for next year’s draft. No Jets fan is going to mind a 3-13 season if it leads to the franchise getting its pick of incoming quarterbacks to open the 2018 campaign. </p>
<p id="VTEYNy"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Remember “Hardhome,” the <em>Game of Thrones </em>episode where Jon Snow meets the army of the dead? I’m picturing something along those lines. The only way this season could go truly terribly for the Jets is if a Patriots beatdown scars their young players so much that Jamal Adams starts muttering, “I’ve seen Tom Brady; I’ve looked into his eyes” without being able to concentrate on anything else. </p>
<p id="peSCLx">As long as potential building blocks like Adams (a former LSU safety the Jets drafted sixth overall in April) and Marcus Maye (another safety, taken in the 2017 second round) don’t <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsEuTYbDRwE">get Brad Lidged</a> beyond repair, this season has limited downside. Without hope, there can be no despair. In Jets land, the actual worst-case scenario is more twisted. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="efq82B"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part II: Don’t Bet on These Teams","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/5/16250962/preseason-power-rankings-part-two-saints-ravens-dolphins"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part III: The Rising, the Resurgent, and the Chargers","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/6/16256382/preseason-power-rankings-part-three-giants-eagles-chargers"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="oz7oOB">There would be no more awful fate for the Jets than getting to six wins and falling to the no. 8 to no. 12 range in next year’s draft, a result of the team’s highly drafted prospects (Adams, Maye, and 2016 first-round pick Darron Lee) improving at an accelerated pace and its defensive headliners (like Muhammad Wilkerson) having bounce-back years. It’s time for the franchise to start over; everything has to come crashing down first.</p>
<p id="rGmnSx"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>78. That’s how many more career catches recently acquired receiver Jermaine Kearse has than the rest of the Jets’ top seven wideouts <em>combined</em>. Kearse’s 153 catches more than doubles the total among the rest of his active teammates. Taking on a recently signed contract is never the smartest part of a rebuilding plan, but the Jets needed someone, <em>anyone</em>, to catch passes from their quarterback of choice, and they still managed to pry a conditional second-round pick (along with Kearse) from the Seahawks for Richardson. </p>
<p id="bcM9BT"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Adams. He’s not only one of the few reasons for optimism on this roster, he can also do <a href="https://youtu.be/FqYUeYZZmxQ?t=14s">things like this</a>.</p>
<h3 id="HdFcmR"><strong>31. Buffalo Bills</strong></h3>
<p id="4p942z"><strong>2016 record: </strong>7-9</p>
<p id="xmk9zE"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>10th on offense; 27th on defense</p>
<p id="zBxqzl"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>A rough year might be in Buffalo’s best interest if it gives new general manager Brandon Beane a chance to find the quarterback he wants moving forward. Nearly every move the Bills have made this offseason has served to undercut what Tyrod Taylor brings to the table. </p>
<p id="UOAwIs">Wide receiver Sammy Watkins and his deep-ball prowess were a perfect complement to Taylor, who excels when pushing the ball downfield. With <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/11/16135964/sammy-watkins-buffalo-bills-los-angeles-rams-trade">Watkins’s August trade</a> to the Rams, Taylor’s go-to receiver is gone, leaving him with a stable of pass catchers who act best as short and intermediate targets. Combine that with new coordinator Rick Dennison’s offense, which should keep Taylor under center for a majority of the time, and Buffalo has created a confluence of circumstances that set Taylor up to fail. This is all one year after former coordinator Anthony Lynn (now the Chargers head coach) built an offense that lined Taylor up in the shotgun, gashed opponents on the ground with LeSean McCoy, and finished the season 10th in DVOA.</p>
<p id="VegZf3">The Bills can move on from Taylor before the start of the next league year with a limited dead money hit, and if their choices this summer are any indication, they intend to do so. If the franchise is going to search for a quarterback once again, it might as well do it from the top of the draft. </p>
<p id="Kwe9cN"><strong>Worst-case scenario:</strong> Beane has made it clear that he has a plan. Buffalo has started stockpiling the draft capital to facilitate an on-the-fly rebuild, shipping Watkins to L.A. in a package for a 2018 second-round pick and moving cornerback Ronald Darby to the Eagles in a deal structured around a 2018 third-rounder. Like we’ve seen in Cleveland since the Sashi Brown-led brain trust took over in 2016, that approach requires conviction and patience. It also means that the Bills are in similar situation as the Jets; things can only go so badly in 2017. </p>
<p id="ECfdD7"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>80. That’s the percentage of Buffalo’s offensive plays that started out of shotgun or pistol formations last season, the third-highest rate in the league, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2017-Essential/dp/1974013782">per Football Outsiders</a>. The Dennison-coordinated Broncos finished last year at 43 percent for second lowest in the NFL. </p>
<p id="lHbLAO"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Wide receiver Zay Jones. The NCAA’s all-time leader in receptions (399) is a dream for receiver nerds. The East Carolina product has excellent hands and superb body control and understands the nuances of the position. And with Watkins traded and <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/21/16179400/anquan-boldin-retires-14-seasons">Anquan Boldin now retired</a>, the rookie is going to see <em>a lot </em>of work.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Blake Bortles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_rpuMEtNAkBg-R2AI2slp18DetA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9174045/bortles_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Sam Greenwood/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="mV7DXy"><strong>30. Jacksonville Jaguars</strong></h3>
<p id="q4eGKf"><strong>2016 record: </strong>3-13</p>
<p id="zAFMou"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>27th on offense; 13th on defense</p>
<p id="b8Lzfu"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Blake Bortles has regained his hold on the starting quarterback job after getting the hook before Jacksonville’s third preseason game. The Jaguars’ company line is that he’s improved, and head coach Doug Marrone has even said that Bortles has looked “the best I’ve seen him” since being renamed the starter. Excuse me while I <a href="https://media.giphy.com/media/wOZEvjN5kjSqk/giphy.gif">channel my inner Liz Lemon</a>. Saying Bortles is the best you’ve ever seen him is like going to Olive Garden and saying the chicken parm there has never tasted so good. </p>
<p id="xs5l5k">For the sake of argument, though, let’s assume that Bortles’s flirtation with the bench did somehow short-circuit him to competency. If that’s the case, the rest of this roster is ready to make noise. Leonard Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, is in the backfield and could serve as the basis of the offense. If Bortles can prevent things from totally falling apart, the combination of Fournette toting the rock and wide receiver Allen Robinson making plays on the outside is worth getting excited about. </p>
<p id="yYG8DI">No caveats are necessary to get my hopes up for this defense. With budding superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey on one side, free-agent signing A.J. Bouye on the other, and a pair of solid safeties behind them, this secondary should makes life miserable for opposing passing games. And it’s not as if the front seven lacks talent. Pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue was a pleasant surprise as a third-round pick in 2016, and the Jags have Calais Campbell now playing across from him. This unit has a chance to hover around the top five in defensive DVOA; for the players’ sake, I hope it isn’t for naught. </p>
<p id="DeFZc4"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The first step toward another dismal season in Jacksonville was taken months ago. By choosing to move forward with only Bortles and Chad Henne as realistic quarterback options, the Jaguars’ front office may have torpedoed its chance to conjure 2017 excitement. </p>
<p id="arFJo8">The Jags aren’t positioned like the Jets and Bills, either, where bottoming out is a tolerable (if hard to watch) outcome. They had a pricy offseason even by <em>their</em> standards, with new football czar Tom Coughlin handing a combined $68 million in guaranteed money to Campbell, Bouye, and safety Barry Church in an effort to put this defense over the top. Nothing that coordinator Todd Wash’s group does will matter, though, if Bortles (or Henne) plays as poorly as he has in the past.</p>
<p id="VtagKg"><strong>Stat of note:</strong></p>
<div id="HljxHa">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blake Bortles needs 489 touchdown passes this season to become the NFL's all-time leader in passing touchdowns (Peyton Manning: 539).</p>— Blake Bortles Facts (@BortlesFacts) <a href="https://twitter.com/BortlesFacts/status/900464078556205056">August 23, 2017</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="6DNVaF"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Fournette. Both Ramsey and Ngakoue should be fun in their second NFL seasons, but c’mon—there’s only one option. Fournette was a top-five pick for a reason, and he’s long been considered the most talented back to come along in some time. He’s a 228-pound bullet train who treats would-be tacklers like inconveniences more than impediments. By taking Fournette and left tackle Cam Robinson in the first two rounds of the 2017 draft, Jacksonville has embraced physicality on offense. In picking Fournette, it may have also found an answer.</p>
<h3 id="XINWrZ"><strong>29. San Francisco 49ers</strong></h3>
<p id="td0NIL"><strong>2016 record: </strong>2-14</p>
<p id="rDu7i7"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>23rd on offense; 28th on defense</p>
<p id="9BX8Ds"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>San Francisco’s <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=400950235">third preseason game against the Vikings</a> showed what new head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense can look like when it’s rolling, even with quarterback Brian Hoyer at the helm. On the heels of a masterful stint in Atlanta, the 37-year-old Shanahan has 49ers fans salivating at the thought of what he can do, despite the fact that the team spent all of its high-value draft capital on defense this spring. </p>
<p id="N3Nj4g">Hoyer turned in the best stretch of his career under Shanahan when the pair worked together in Cleveland in 2014, and while Hoyer playing well as a stopgap quarterback solution all fall is a possibility, the ideal outcome for the Niners would involve third-round pick C.J. Beathard getting some run and proving to be a viable option. That might seem like a tall order for a guy drafted 104th overall and 17 spots behind Davis Webb, but it’s the sort of dice roll a team with time can make. And in the best-case hypothetical, the dice come up 7 every time. </p>
<p id="WDFBsM">While a Shanahan-led offense will be the biggest source of intrigue on this team, the more promising unit for the Niners is on the other side of the ball. San Francisco’s front four, which includes three consecutive first-round picks in Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas (the no. 3 pick in 2017), has a chance to be a strength from day one as it makes a schematic shift to new coordinator Robert Saleh’s Seahawks-esque 4-3. Take that group and pair it with rookie linebacker Reuben Foster, who’s already blowing up offensive linemen, and this defense could become interesting much faster than many people think. </p>
<p id="zAsB9o"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The Niners are coming off a two-win season, and Vegas put their over/under for 2017 at 4.5 wins. This franchise has already reached its nadir; there’s nowhere to go but up. The reason that Shanahan and newly hired GM John Lynch were each given six-year contracts is that the Niners roster was almost entirely gutted. This is a ground-up project, and outside of first-round picks Thomas and Foster suddenly forgetting what football is, there isn’t a truly disheartening outcome for this bunch. </p>
<p id="TBgDnH"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>27. That’s the percentage of offensive plays in which Shanahan used play action last season in Atlanta, according to Football Outsiders. That is comfortably the highest mark in the league. If running back Carlos Hyde can stay healthy, he has a chance to thrive in Shanahan’s system, and that could boost the effectiveness of play action. </p>
<p id="3YU6L4"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Tight end George Kittle. A fifth-round pick in this year’s draft (146th overall), Kittle is penciled in as a starter following Vance McDonald’s trade to Pittsburgh. And full disclosure: I <em>loved </em>Kittle coming out of Iowa. At 6-foot-4 and 247 pounds, the guy ripped off a 4.52 40-yard dash and posted a broad jump that ranked in <a href="https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/george-kittle">the 98th percentile</a> <a href="https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/george-kittle">a</a>t<a href="https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/george-kittle"> </a>his position. He also has no qualms about mixing it up as a blocker. </p>
<p id="0enau3">The tight end is a huge part of what Shanahan wants to do offensively. He’ll have plenty of options with an athlete like Kittle.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Myles Garrett" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kf3Fy8x7-MDXAFMvfvmvb0wVE2c=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9174057/myles_garrett_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Joe Robbins/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="gFACpm"><strong>28. Cleveland Browns</strong></h3>
<p id="ZuKq96"><strong>2016 record: </strong>1-15</p>
<p id="oJhjDm"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>29th on offense; 31st on defense</p>
<p id="6I05qa"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Based on the moves that Cleveland made this offseason, it appears the Browns’ rebuilding process is over. After spending his first year at the helm purging the roster of expensive veterans, executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown used the team’s massive reserve of cap space to do some serious spending in 2017. In March, the Browns handed out $65 million in guaranteed money—on their offensive line alone. Cleveland locked up left guard Joel Bitonio with a six-year, $51 million extension to go along with big-time free agents Kevin Zeitler (guard) and J.C. Tretter (center). </p>
<p id="GSQp03">In revamping its offensive line and handing wide receiver Kenny Britt $17 million guaranteed, Brown and head coach Hue Jackson have done their best to create a cushy environment for whoever plays quarterback. As of last month, the man tapped for that position is rookie DeShone Kizer. Many expected Cleveland to use its cache of draft picks to swing a deal for Jimmy Garoppolo or to make a play for someone like Deshaun Watson. Instead, the Browns used three first-round picks to address other needs before snatching Kizer at 52nd overall. </p>
<p id="1nE4vG">Kizer is an undeniable talent who boasts prototypical quarterback size and is still just 21 years old. His high points at Notre Dame last fall rivaled those of any passer in the draft, and if Jackson can get that version of him consistently through the next few years, this has a chance to go down as a transformative offseason for Cleveland. First overall pick Myles Garrett already looks like the generational talent many deemed him to be, and the Raiders have shown how quickly a game-wrecking pass rusher and a competent quarterback can alter the direction of a franchise. Brown came to town with a plan: Stockpile picks and line the team with stellar athletes. Even if the Browns aren’t ready to contend just yet, this year could mark a huge step in the right direction. </p>
<p id="z3ZvfR"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The bar for Cleveland is still about a foot off the ground. This roster—especially on defense—is so young that there’s really no chance for 2017 to be smooth all the way through. Loading up on draft picks only matters if some of those picks hit. This means the only negative outcome for this Browns season would be a lack of development from guys like Kizer, receiver Corey Coleman (2016 first-round pick), defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah (2016 second round), safety Jabrill Peppers (2017 first round), and tight end David Njoku (2017 first round). Cleveland fans should feel considerably less discouraged than they have in years past.</p>
<p id="x57TBI"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>10.6 percent. That was the Browns’ <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2016">adjusted sack rate</a> last fall, dead last in the NFL. Throwing a small fortune at offensive linemen this offseason should make that problem a thing of the past. </p>
<p id="Zee7Be"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Garrett. This almost feels like cheating, but then again, that’s how I feel watching Garrett play football. His <a href="https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/myles-garrett">spider chart</a> is just a filled-in octagon. He’s among the best athletes to walk into the NFL … well, ever. Cleveland’s defense still has glaring weaknesses, but Garrett may soon make them hard to notice.</p>
<h3 id="eU0QDd"><strong>27. Denver Broncos</strong></h3>
<p id="D95CZP"><strong>2016 record: </strong>9-7</p>
<p id="VWTzUP"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>28th on offense; 1st on defense</p>
<p id="2RIz7d"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The saddest part about the Broncos’ 2017 outlook is that we’ve already <em>seen </em>the best-case scenario. That came last season, when they rode a devastating defense and dismal offense to a strikingly mediocre campaign. The team’s preferred outcome this offseason would have been for 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch to put it all together, take the reins from last year’s starting quarterback (Trevor Siemian), and provide this unit with another dimension. Instead, Siemian enters the fall as the man under center once again. </p>
<p id="WT2ciJ">Beyond quarterback play, the Broncos offensive line was their biggest issue last year—a fact that GM John Elway clearly understood, considering some of his recent decisions. Denver gave former Cowboys guard Ronald Leary $24 million guaranteed this spring before drafting Utah offensive tackle Garett Bolles 20th overall. If searching for reasons why this offense can be better than 2016’s version, improvements to a unit that tied for 27th in adjusted sack rate and finished 29th in rushing DVOA is a good place to start. </p>
<p id="jOTvhV">If Siemian plays slightly better and a more dangerous running game lifts Denver’s offense out of the bottom third of the league, the defense should remain scary enough to make the Broncos a weekly pain in the ass. </p>
<p id="uiLDfU"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong> The problem with the rationale above is that any offensive stagnation will make it difficult for the Broncos to replicate their 2016 formula. Denver’s defense finished first in DVOA two years in a row and returns most of its core pieces. But the unit’s most important loss has nothing to do with the players on the field. The maestro of this group, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, is now in Los Angeles filling the same role for the Rams. </p>
<p id="UjxYAn">Denver was excellent on defense before Phillips arrived, and it will likely stay excellent after he’s gone. But there’s an important distinction between being the league’s best unit and being one of the best in the league. Even if the Broncos defense slips to fifth or so in DVOA, that would be enough of a drop-off to take Denver from 9-7 to 6-10, especially if the offense fails to improve. </p>
<p id="N1WU4S">Maintaining a unit lined with expensive talent isn’t easy, and that reality is starting to show in Denver. With a new head coach, Vance Joseph, and defensive coordinator Al Woods taking over for Phillips, it’s unlikely that the Broncos return to last season’s form. </p>
<p id="qGX1eV"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>44. That’s the number of Denver plays last season that went for 20 or more yards—tied for last in the league with a Houston team quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler. The Broncos offense is unlikely to be consistent with Siemian and Lynch running the show, but the hope is that stronger line play can open up some options down the field. </p>
<p id="eOBFe2"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bolles. I’m parodying myself by putting a left tackle in this spot, but most of the players worth getting enthused about on Denver’s roster are players who fans already know, like Von Miller. Bolles still has to iron out some issues on the blind side (he picked up four penalties in 37 snaps during Denver’s second preseason game), but he has the makings of a mainstay at left tackle.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="T.Y. Hilton" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G9uWgj-_H5YEdylobEwrRhP-Tkc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9174061/ty_hilton_rankings.jpg">
<cite>Andy Lyons/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="AavmN6"><strong>26. Indianapolis Colts</strong></h3>
<p id="g8wedl"><strong>2016 record: </strong>8-8</p>
<p id="8y31rZ"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>12th on offense; 29th on defense</p>
<p id="l9dsCn"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The positive spin on the Colts’ campaign begins and ends with Andrew Luck. First-year GM Chris Ballard said last week that the team plans to take Luck, who is recovering from shoulder surgery, off the PUP list before the season begins. That’s encouraging, but all it means is that Indianapolis doesn’t believe the quarterback will miss six games. It does nothing to guarantee that he’ll be ready for Week 1. </p>
<p id="GnkLHl">It’s now September and Luck still isn’t practicing. Expecting him to be ready for Sunday’s opener seems foolish, even if ideally he’ll return soon after and give Indy a legitimate chance to contend in the AFC South. Luck played the best football of his career last season. He completed 63.5 percent of his throws for 4,240 yards with 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The combination of him and T.Y. Hilton—who reached a new plane last fall while leading the league with 1,448 receiving yards—is lethal enough to make the Colts offense a frightening proposition. </p>
<p id="OOTjub">The other side of the ball is where Ballard put in the majority of his work in year one. Former GM Ryan Grigson often eschewed signing stars in the middle of his defense in favor of picking up shiny new offensive toys, and it cost his team dearly. The 2016 Colts ranked dead last in run defense DVOA last season and allowed a miserable 4.7 yards per carry. Enter defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, whom the team signed to a three-year, $27 million deal to bolster the interior of its line. By adding Hankins and first-round free safety Malik Hooker, the hope is that Indy’s defense can become strong in an area of the field where it is historically weak. </p>
<p id="WVRnLz"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Every indication from Ballard and the Colts so far is that they plan on being cautious with Luck, and who could blame them? Luck <em>is </em>the franchise at this point, and rushing him onto the field with a roster several steps shy of serious contention is in no one’s best interest. If Luck sits the first four or five games of the season, it’s possible that Indy finishes October without a win, regardless of whether Scott Tolzien or the newly acquired Jacoby Brissett take the majority of snaps.</p>
<p id="71ZfKT">The Colts’ injury concerns also extend far beyond their star quarterback. Center Ryan Kelly had foot surgery in mid-August and is expected to be out a few weeks. Top corner Vontae Davis is dealing with a significant groin injury that could sideline him for a while. There’s a version of this Colts season in which everything goes wrong: in which Kelly’s injury sabotages an already shaky offensive line and leads to even more hesitation about bringing Luck back, and in which the defense struggles to incorporate all of its new pieces. A team quarterbacked by Luck will always be relevant, but it’s possible Indy’s ceiling isn’t high enough to throw him back into action. </p>
<p id="ZXehgp"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>32nd. That’s the Colts’ ranking in Early Down Success Rate, a defensive statistic invented by <a href="https://twitter.com/SharpFootball">Warren Sharp</a>. No team’s opponents faced more manageable third downs, on average, than Indy’s did last season. Adding a guy like Hankins should help alleviate that problem. </p>
<p id="PWCXLb"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Running back Marlon Mack. The 2017 fourth-round pick enters the season a few rungs down the depth, but by all accounts he jumped off the screen during training camp. I love Frank Gore more than I knew was possible, but Indy could use some twitchiness in its backfield. Mack may just be the guy for the job. </p>
<h3 id="AkkjOK"><strong>25. Chicago Bears</strong></h3>
<p id="D2PmJJ"><strong>2016 record: </strong>3-13</p>
<p id="ujG1V3"><strong>2016 DVOA finish: </strong>17th on offense; 23rd on defense</p>
<p id="dvEsLd"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The particulars of this scenario likely depend on who you ask. Bears general manager Ryan Pace is adamant that Mike Glennon—the former Buccaneers backup whom the Bears handed $18.5 million guaranteed in March—will be the team’s starting quarterback. In Pace’s perfect world, Glennon would get a majority of the 2017 work and play well enough to recoup a draft pick in a subsequent offseason trade.</p>
<p id="LcyXDg">For every ravenous Bears fan hitting “add to cart” on that Mitchell Trubisky jersey, though, none of that matters. The second overall pick in this year’s draft showed enough flashes in the preseason to make patience difficult. If Trubisky comes in and performs well enough to give Chicago the homegrown stability under center it’s craved for nearly 30 years, it won’t matter if the Bears can’t salvage the Glennon signing with a future pick. </p>
<p id="w38AlB">After losing wideout Cameron Meredith (who came out of nowhere to have a solid 2016 campaign) to a season-ending ACL injury, the Bears are paper-thin at receiver, but that doesn’t mean that Trubisky (or Glennon) is being thrown to the wolves. The interior of the offensive line—left guard Kyle Long, center Cody Whitehair, and right guard Josh Sitton—stacks up with any in the league, and along with running back Jordan Howard, it gives Chicago a potent ground game around which to base its offense. There’s hope to be found with this unit, especially if Trubisky breaks through. </p>
<p id="IiQ8z2">On defense, finding reasons for optimism doesn’t even require digging. Chicago’s front seven is the strength of its roster. The Bears go deep at nearly every one of those spots, and 2016 first-rounder Leonard Floyd could emerge as a pass-rushing terror. Coordinator Vic Fangio absolutely has the talent to lead a unit that could rate in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. </p>
<p id="yh17VY"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The only potential disaster scenario for the Bears would unfold if a slow start leads to the coaching staff growing impatient, thrusting Trubisky into the starting role, and creating such an untenable environment that the passer’s development is irreparably stunted. Chicago could stomach 5-11. As long as that clunker doesn’t involve Trubisky taking massive hits and sinking into bad habits, the long-term plan is in place. </p>
<p id="EvPMAj">Elsewhere on the roster, the Bears would love to see receiver Kevin White develop into a useful player. The first draft pick of the Pace era has played four games in two seasons and caught only 19 passes in his entire career. Chicago’s receiving corps isn’t the most exciting bunch; White needs to prevent it from looking like a total nightmare. </p>
<p id="Zf6Sk2"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>71.1. That’s the number of adjusted games lost on Chicago’s defense in 2016, the highest in the league <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit">according to Football Outsiders’ Scott Kacsmar</a>. The Bears were decimated on defense last season, especially after losing linebackers Danny Trevathan (to injury) Jerrell Freeman (to a performance-enhancing drug suspension). If that group can stay even remotely healthy this fall, it should be very solid. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="jOfc1z"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Running back Tarik Cohen. At 5-foot-6 and 179 pounds, the fourth-round pick out of North Carolina A&T won’t get a steady diet of carries—particularly with Howard entrenched as the starter. But it’s already apparent what sort of shifty, pass-catching dynamic he’ll bring to Chicago’s offense. I can’t remember the last time the Bears had a change-of-pace back who could light up the field. Cohen should fill that void, and hopefully become one more reason why I finish the 2017 season by tattooing Trubisky’s face on my chest. </p>
<p id="xDOGLu"><em>This piece was updated after publication. </em></p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/4/16243646/preseason-power-rankings-part-one-jets-bills-49ersRobert Mays