The Ringer: All Posts by Zach Kram2024-03-28T10:40:31-04:00https://www.theringer.com/authors/zach-kram/rss2024-03-28T10:40:31-04:002024-03-28T10:40:31-04:00The Ringer’s 2024 MLB Preseason Predictions
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<p>Baseball is back! To celebrate Opening Day, our staff made their picks for MVP, Cy Young, the World Series, the biggest flop, and more.</p> <p id="RqU7B3"><em>The smell of fresh-cut grass. The pop of the mitt. The roar of the crowd. With the start of the 2024 MLB season, the familiar sights and sounds of baseball are once again upon us. To celebrate, our staff gathered to register their preseason picks for the World Series, individual awards like MVP and Cy Young, this season’s biggest flop, and more.</em></p>
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<p id="zfGEkO"><a href="https://www.theringer.com/authors/ben-lindbergh"><strong>Ben Lindbergh</strong></a><strong>: </strong>I’ve never had a harder time making playoff picks. Some of my forecasts came down to a single signing or injury; you could swap out a third of these teams in favor of some I snubbed—say, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Padres, and Giants—and I wouldn’t quibble with your calls. (I already regret my Cardinals selection.) The good news is that very few teams are totally out of it before first pitch: Only four (the Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, and Athletics) have single-digit odds of making the playoffs,<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb"> per</a> FanGraphs. That’s a dramatic decrease relative to every previous year in the playoff-odds archive, as shown in the chart below (which uses the 2020 figure from <em>before</em> the season was shortened and the playoff format changed):</p>
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<p id="bIg3k0">Some of that has to do with the expansion of the playoff field from 10 teams to 12. But even in 2022, the first year with the current playoff format, 10 teams were out of it or extreme long shots when the season started. Heck, even after the 2020 schedule was reduced to a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/6/26/21304056/playoff-randomness-shortened-season">small</a><a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/7/17/21328094/analytics-60-game-season-war-stats"> sample</a> and the number of available playoff spots swelled to 16, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb?date=2020-07-22&dateDelta=">six</a> teams were still close to being deemed DOA when the season started. (Granted, one of them—the Marlins—made it to October.) Remember 2018, when <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/3/14/17117152/superteam-roster-retention-astros">superteams strode the earth</a> and almost half the league was on life support from the get-go? That seems like a long time ago.</p>
<p id="Shg2wQ">The flip side is that <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/27/24113134/2024-mlb-preseason-power-rankings-braves-dodgers-standings">only two</a> current clubs, the Braves and Dodgers, can convincingly pass for superteams. No one else is a near-lock for the playoffs, or a prohibitive favorite to win their division. It’s just like Joe Morgan <a href="https://grantland.com/the-triangle/explaining-2015-mlb-parity-projected-standings/#:~:text=Before%20this%20century%E2%80%99s,for%20a%20bit.%E2%80%9D">used to say</a>—there are no (well, almost no) great teams anymore. What we have instead is an amorphous, mediocre middle. Check out this chart, which shows the number of teams as of each Opening Day that FanGraphs projected to win between 83 and 85 games, and between 80 and 85 (rounding projected win totals down from 0.4 and up from 0.5):</p>
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<p id="fDkQAo">We’re trying to pin the tail on the playoff team while blindfolded, basically. <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> cofounder Joe Sheehan has a<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%40joe_sheehan%20variance%20swamps%20everything&src=typed_query&f=top"> mantra</a>: Variance swamps everything. He usually means that randomness reigns over short-term time frames, but in this case, the sport’s inherent randomness could be decisive even over 162 games. The teams in this swath of wild-card fodder are separated by so few projected wins that even someone with perfect information would<a href="http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/04/accurate-prediction-and-speed-of-light.html"> lack the capacity</a> to distinguish the ones that will make the postseason from those that will be also-rans. This might be the year that we finally get a meaningful, three-or-more-team tie—sadly,<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34625035/mlb-tiebreaker-games-gone-here-rule-change-means-season-standings"> too late</a> for that to result in riveting tiebreaker games.</p>
<p id="7srynP">Maybe it’s just cyclical that so many teams are in it, but not necessarily to win it. However, the unusual shape of the projected standings may also stem from structural changes to the sport, including<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39808087/mlb-opening-day-2024-passan-payroll-tiers-26-teams-12-playoff-spots"> anti-tanking measures</a> in the CBA and the incentives imposed by the expanded playoffs, which encourage teams to be<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/expanded-playoffs-discourage-greatness/"> decent but not dominant</a>. If playoff success is the standard that teams are judged by, but playoff success is<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/10/19/23412844/2022-mlb-playoffs-upsets-san-diego-padres-philadelphia-phillies"> impossible to secure</a>, why spend on additional regular-season wins once you’ve given yourself a good shot at qualifying for the tournament? That mindset may help explain why some of this year’s best (albeit flawed) free agents remained unsigned deep into spring training. Then again, the teams that swooped in to sign Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and their Boras Corp. comrades at discount prices may find that the marginal wins those players provide make a major difference.</p>
<p id="LhObLf">Whether this year’s clouded postseason picture constitutes an improvement over the 4K clarity of past springs is almost a philosophical question. Which matters more in creating a great race: the performance of the pace setters, or the proximity of most competitors to each other? In this context, I lean toward the latter. MLB is probably better off with a ton of teams in contention, and talent distributed more evenly leaguewide, than it was<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baseballs-competitive-balance-problem/"> a</a><a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/53571/moonshot-baseballs-competitive-balance-is-broken-tanking/"> few</a><a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/54264/flu-like-symptoms-the-2019-season-in-inequality/"> years</a><a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/78238/moonshot-mlb-unbalanced-records-100-win-teams-tanking/"> ago</a> when the standings were historically stratified. After all, almost every team in 2024 has<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/3/21/17145986/tanking-hope-and-faith-cubs-astros-white-sox"> hope and faith</a> (to borrow a Bud Selig line), even if few have confidence.</p>
<p id="iWkL5a">That lack of confidence extended to my prediction process (not that I’m <em>ever</em> confident about baseball predictions). So, for my Fall Classic matchup, I went with the likeliest outcome in the NL, and the most <em>fun</em> outcome in the AL, where no one team clearly outclasses the others. The Mariners have holes, but they also have three of the top 10 betting favorites for the AL Cy Young Award. Would you want to face that trio in a short series? For once in the good people of Seattle’s lives, let them see what a pennant looks like, if not a flag.</p>
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<p id="YfSVpv"><a href="https://www.theringer.com/authors/zach-kram"><strong>Zach Kram</strong></a><strong>:</strong> Atlanta has the best roster with the fewest holes in baseball; I don’t care that the team squandered 100-plus-win seasons with immediate playoff exits in 2022 and 2023, because a lineup and rotation with this many stars should do just fine in October. The AL race is more interesting, because the league’s best teams are much more tightly packed. (<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/lg">FanGraphs projections</a> foresee a 15-win gap between Atlanta and the NL’s sixth-best team, versus only a six-game gap between the no. 1 and no. 6 teams in the AL.) So I went out on a thinner limb and selected Seattle, which boasts the AL’s best rotation and a lineup powered by star power (see my MVP pick) and increased depth. Odds are that a better-touted contender like the Astros or Orioles will claim the AL pennant instead, but what fun is picking favorites in both leagues?</p>
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<p id="VSnrtk"><a href="https://www.theringer.com/authors/bobby-wagner"><strong>Bobby Wagner</strong></a><strong>:</strong> Even with the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (which everyone online acted very normally in response to) it’s hard to say the Dodgers are the prohibitive favorite that the “buying a championship” narrative would have you believe. Atlanta has a roster that matches or even exceeds that of the Dodgers, depending on how you feel about their respective starting rotations. And there’s always Houston, so consistent and successful that it would be foolish not to assume the Astros will be tough to eliminate. Plus, the obligatory mention of the Rangers, who I’m hearing won the World Series in 2023? Strange. </p>
<p id="9uGgto">But my oh my, the Dodgers roster is loaded. A typical L.A. lineup will feature MVP winners still playing at their peaks in the<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/19/24105728/mlb-opening-day-games-2024-dodgers-padres-seoul-series-korea"> top three slots</a>,<a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/dodgers-will-smith-working-on-long-term-extension.html"> newly minted</a> Dodger-for-the-next-decade Will Smith at cleanup, and 40-homer threat Max Muncy fifth. If you make it through that grueling challenge unscathed, you’ll be greeted by Teoscar Hernández (career 116 wRC+), James Outman (118 wRC+ , 4.4 fWAR season as a rookie last year), the Jason Heyward–Chris Taylor platoon, and finally, mercifully, no. 9 batter Gavin Lux, a former top prospect with pretty good pop who was putting together a consistent stretch of big league success before losing all of 2023 to a torn ACL. </p>
<p id="5IiWpw">As with any team, there are question marks, like whether a patchwork young rotation will be able to hold down the fort while Walker Buehler works his way back into form and Clayton Kershaw … does whatever Clayton Kershaw needs to do to keep his surgically repaired shoulder healthy. But this is a baseball team that sports a lineup without a single hole, signed the best pitcher on the market, traded for and extended a very good veteran starter, is welcoming back Buehler (a former Cy Young contender), and pulls elite relievers out of its hat so often it’s become boring. Not a bad bet! </p>
<aside id="3UIOFk"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The 2024 MLB Preseason Power Rankings","url":"https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/27/24113134/2024-mlb-preseason-power-rankings-braves-dodgers-standings"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="UwlB3Y">AL MVP</h3>
<p id="CSDLlS"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Julio Rodríguez. Julio—you’ve gotta be good when you’re known by one name that’s not even uncommon—had a semi-disappointing season in 2023, and he still finished fourth in AL MVP voting and AL FanGraphs WAR. Not many players would post a 126 wRC+ on the season, catch fire after the All-Star break, and still opt to make<a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/how-a-new-approach-at-the-plate-is-paying-off-for-mariners-star-julio-rodriguez/"> major swing changes</a>, but Julio’s appear to have paid off. (He hit .394/.512/.667 this spring.) Improbably, he was better than that last August, when he raked to the tune of a .429/.474/.724 slash line, which included a four-game stretch in which he produced a<a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/julio-rodriguez-sets-mlb-record-for-hits-in-4-game-stretch-in-mariners-rout-of-astros/#:~:text=It%20set%20the%20tone%20for,which%20was%20set%20in%201925."> record 17 hits</a>. That earned him <a href="https://marinersblog.mlblogs.com/julio-rodr%C3%ADguez-named-al-player-of-month-andr%C3%A9s-mu%C3%B1oz-named-al-reliever-of-month-d1acd88b65c4">AL Player of the Month</a>; this year, he may<a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-superstar-julio-rodriguez-expects-greatness-from-himself-hes-not-satisfied-yet/"> level up</a> to player of the season. I could absolutely see Juan Soto having a huge walk year—both bases-on-balls-wise and in the<a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/walk-year"> contractual sense</a>—even if his swing<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-impact-at-yankee-stadium"> isn’t set up</a> to make the most of Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. But it takes a lot of offense for an iffy corner outfielder to equal the overall value accrued by a sterling center fielder, and Julio might match Soto bomb for bomb. </p>
<p id="EUB98X"><strong>Wagner:</strong> In 1980, George Brett won AL MVP while playing just 117 games (9.1 fWAR, 198 wRC+, .390 BA—what a year!). Since then—excluding 1981, 1994, and 2020 (three seasons shortened by strikes or COVID)—Corey Seager is the only position player to finish in the top three of MVP voting while playing fewer than 130 games, and he’s just one of three to finish in the top five. Seager managed that last season, when he played only 119 games. </p>
<p id="qcTpTp">Now, is any of that predictive in any way? Probably not! Seager is a bona fide superstar, one of the best hitters in baseball, and sure-handed enough at a key middle infield position to rack up value incredibly fast. We all know this. But injuries have disrupted enough of his campaigns at this point that it’s starting to feel like we’re just going to get a <em>great</em> Seager in three-month increments. </p>
<p id="7jGq1a">But, man, those 119 games and the 6.1 fWAR he put up in them are tantalizing. You have to be so much better than the rest of the competition to miss 40-plus games and still finish higher in MVP voting than your teammate Marcus Semien (who played all 162) and Julio Rodríguez ( who put up a 30-30 season). If Seager stays on the field for 10 to 20 more games in 2024, voters may want to reward him for how great he was in limited games last season, and how instrumental he was to the Rangers’ 2023 World Series win.</p>
<p id="R6oP0V"><strong>Kram: </strong>If I’m predicting a big season from the Mariners, I might as well predict a big season from their best player, too. Last season, Julio Rodríguez had a below-average batting line at the All-Star break and was still good enough to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. If he’s productive at the plate through all of 2024—and provides his typical value on the bases and in the field—he should become the third MVP in franchise history, joining Ichiro Suzuki and Ken Griffey Jr.</p>
<h3 id="GrEpAs">NL MVP</h3>
<p id="EIli8X"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves. Last spring, I made a “bold”<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1987-the-2023-preseason-predictions-game/"> prediction</a> that Acuña would have a 50-50 season. If I set the same expectation today, in the wake of Acuña’s 40-70, unanimous-MVP campaign, it wouldn’t be bold. Would you believe that despite being the<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&qual=500"> second-best</a> hitter in baseball last year, Acuña <em>under</em>performed<em> </em>his expected stats by the<a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=500&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=asc&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results"> second-widest</a> margin? Impressive as his unparalleled power-speed season was, there’s still room for him to<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/how-ronald-acuna-jr-can-improve-in-2024"> be</a><a href="https://www.ajc.com/sports/ken-sugiura-blog/an-analytics-guru-and-a-confidant-agree-that-ronald-acuna-jr-can-do-even-more/GXTNBWRTUNHWZGWCVF42OWO2Z4/"> better</a>: After the plate-discipline improvements he made last year, the 26-year-old’s skill level knows no ceiling. Only the knee that ended his 2021 season early, hampered him in 2022, and gave the Braves a<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39732652/ronald-acuna-jr-returns-braves-lineup-knee-injury-scare"> scare</a> this spring, can stop him.</p>
<p id="otDYAU"><strong>Kram: </strong>Mookie Betts. I will continue to pick Betts until he becomes the first player since Frank Robinson to win both AL and NL MVP awards. I have to be right one of these years, darn it! (Now that he’s in the National League, Ohtani might beat Betts to that honor—but I don’t think it’s as likely to come this season, when Ohtani is only a DH rather than a two-way contributor.)</p>
<p id="YhJGHM"><strong>Wagner:</strong> If we could put on our “Just Asking Questions” hats for a second, allow me to pose this: Why was Ronald Acuña Jr. the <em>unanimous</em> MVP last year?</p>
<p id="1l61Py">I know what you’re thinking! Acuña’s 2023 season was just the fifth in major league history in which a player hit at least 40 home runs and stole at least 40 bases. Cool club! Here are the MVP finishes of the other four players to do that:</p>
<blockquote><p id="Go7mTy">1988, Jose Canseco: First<br>1996, Barry Bonds: Fifth<br>1998, Alex Rodriguez: Ninth<br>2006, Alfonso Soriano: Sixth</p></blockquote>
<p id="K5faxG">I’m not trying to pour cold water on Acuña’s achievement (though I’m aware that’s exactly what this ended up sounding like), I’m more so trying to figure out why that became the overwhelmingly decisive factor for voters between Acuña (8.4 fWAR) and Mookie Betts (8.3 fWAR) when 40-40 hasn’t historically clinched the MVP. </p>
<p id="uVAUck">There are other factors, like the fact Acuña hadn’t won the award yet and Betts had, or that the Braves have been so dominant as a team recently. </p>
<p id="wuujid">I would’ve probably voted for Acuña last season, but I don’t think it should’ve been so cut and dry, which is my long way of saying that I think Betts is about as deserving a second-place finisher as we’ve had in some time, and that translates favorably to a narrative for him to be awarded in 2024.</p>
<h3 id="cNKC3a">AL Cy Young</h3>
<p id="E41YYP"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>It probably says something about the state of starting pitching—especially in the absence of Gerrit Cole—that looking nasty for a fraction of a season is all it takes to place Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and Kansas City’s Cole Ragans among the leading candidates for the Cy. And sure, those guys are good: Skubal<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=0&startdate=2023-07-04&enddate=2023-11-01&team=0"> led</a> all MLB pitchers in fWAR from his July 4 season debut on, and Ragans<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=0&startdate=2023-08-02&enddate=2023-11-01&team=0"> surpassed</a> Skubal (and everyone else) starting on August 2, when he joined the Royals’ rotation for good after coming over in a trade with Texas. Both have the stuff to support the stats; all they lack is long track records. Well, maybe it makes me old-fashioned, but I’m going old guard over young guns: For the third straight season, I’m picking Corbin Burnes, who was also my<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/7/23/21335138/predictions-mvp-world-series-rookie-of-the-year"> 2020 breakout candidate</a>. I go way back with Burnes in <em>Ringer</em> preseason predictions, and though he<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/have-you-tried-turning-corbin-burnes-off-then-turning-him-back-on-again/"> wasn’t his usual lights-out self</a> early last season, he was strong down the stretch.</p>
<p id="xqA15s"><strong>Kram:</strong> Tarik Skubal. This race is wide open, as the top four finishers from last season are either currently injured (Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Bradish) or now in the NL (Sonny Gray). So let’s get wild: A pitcher who’s never reached 150 innings or won more than eight games in a season is going to win the AL Cy Young. <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-08-01&enddate=2023-11-01&team=0">From August onward</a> last year, the sport’s two most valuable pitchers were Skubal (2.2 fWAR) and the Royals’ Cole Ragans (2.3), who is also a worthy dark-horse pick for this award. Skubal records lots of strikeouts, few walks, and even fewer home runs, and across a full season—after he missed half of last year due to elbow surgery—he’ll post the best overall numbers in a crowded field of potential first-time winners.</p>
<p id="Gbf1H2"><strong>Wagner: </strong>Luis Castillo. With the news that Gerrit Cole will miss a good chunk of the season, a pretty open AL Cy Young race just became wide open. Castillo had a pretty standard (which is to say, wonderful) Luis Castillo season in 2023: 3.4 fWAR, 27.3 percent strikeout rate, 94th percentile in pitching run value according to Baseball Savant. </p>
<p id="1Pv9wu">He is an ace. He is very good. He is durable as hell. But he hasn’t gotten the type of results that Cole, Kevin Gausman, or new American League member Corbin Burnes have been able to manage. Some of that is because, while he strikes out a lot of batters, he’s the type of pitcher who challenges hitters directly, so the contact he gives up tends to be harder than that of other elite starters. According to Baseball Savant, his hard-hit percentage was 2.8 percentage points higher than league average last year, which is tough to overcome if you want to prevent runs at the clip other elite starters do.</p>
<p id="kdl3iJ">The stuff, though, is so addictive. And so is the windup, the overall aesthetic, and the fact that Seattle’s rotation is as formidable as any in the game. I think being the clear no. 1 amongst a great group of arms—coupled with some more favorable batted-ball results in 2023—will do a lot to bolster Castillo’s profile when we look back on his candidacy at the end of the year.</p>
<h3 id="HRny88">NL Cy Young</h3>
<p id="HSdMml"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Spencer Strider, Braves. In an earlier era, Strider’s 20-5 win-loss record—in a season when no other pitcher recorded more than 17 victories—might well have won him this award. If it had, he wouldn’t have been a bad choice—not because of his wins, but because of his wins above replacement, which nearly led all pitchers (at FanGraphs, whose flavor of WAR wasn’t fazed by the roughly one-run gap between his ERA and FIP). Strider has led all NL pitchers in fWAR over the past two campaigns, despite starting 2022 in the bullpen, and he’s recorded<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2023&sortcol=6&sortdir=default&qual=150"> by far</a> the highest strikeout rate of any hurler who’s thrown even 150 frames over that span. He’s done all that while throwing his four-seamer or slider on a combined 94 percent of his deliveries. Unsurprisingly, he possesses baseball’s<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=39&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2023&qual=150&sortcol=4&sortdir=default&pagenum=1"> best fastball</a> as assessed by Stuff+, which has made it more than possible for him to excel as a two-pitch starter. But this spring, he’s<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/spencer-strider-adds-curveball-draws-greg-maddux-comparison"> incorporated a curveball</a> en route to conceding just two runs in 22 2/3 innings, with 35 Ks. Last year, he struck out a major-league-leading 281 batters without the curve; with it, he could<a href="https://stathead.com/sharing/GC3Cv"> join</a> Cole, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Clayton Kershaw as the only pitchers to reach the 300 mark since Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Curt Schilling made it look routine in the late 1990s and early 2000s.</p>
<p id="32EdlC"><strong>Kram:</strong> Spencer Strider has struck out 37 percent of opposing hitters in his career. No other starting pitcher in MLB history (minimum 100 innings) is north of 31.3 percent. Granted, strikeout rates have risen over time, but Strider’s K% <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=23&season=2023&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pageitems=50&stats=pit&qual=300&pagenum=1">relative to the league average</a> is about as high as those of famed strikeout artists Bob Feller and Pedro Martínez. Pitching on the best team in baseball, Strider has a realistic path to the first <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/pitrip.shtml">pitching Triple Crown</a> in a full season since Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw both accomplished the feat in 2011.</p>
<p id="1SQPVw"><strong>Wagner:</strong> Logan Webb. When it comes to young aces, Logan Webb and Spencer Strider act as tremendous foils. I don’t mean that in the sense that Webb is a hero and Strider is a villain, or vice versa. Rather, they are bizarro versions of each other, achieving similar levels of run prevention and overall success through polar opposite paths. Last year, Webb struck out 22.8 percent (29th-best among 44 qualified starters) and walked an impressive 3.7 percent (third-best in MLB) of batters faced. Strider, meanwhile, struck out 36.8 percent (best in MLB, comfortably) while walking 7.6 percent (15th-best in MLB) of batters faced. </p>
<p id="CEAEbl">Their pitch profiles are about as different as two aces get in today’s game. Webb attacks hitters with a throwback combination of sinkers (33.6 percent of pitches thrown) and changeups (41.6 percent), mixing in a healthy dose of sliders (21.2 percent) as a put-out pitch when he’s ahead in the count. Strider, meanwhile, throws 58.9 percent four-seam fastballs and 33.8 percent sliders. All gas, no brakes (though he seems to be attempting to mix in more changeups and has added a curveball this winter)! Even where they overlap—the slider—they differ. Strider’s slider is tight, with close to league average movement both horizontally and vertically. But he throws it hard, and tunnels it off his elite fastball to get strikeouts. Webb, on the other hand, throws a looping slider with a horizontal break 82 percent greater than average. Much of the difference in the sliders can be explained aesthetically, as Strider’s release point is much more over the top, while Webb slots his arm lower upon release, allowing himself to achieve that gorgeous frisbee action. </p>
<p id="zi1cLB">The two make a fascinating pair. I’d like to have either of them on my team! In a field where the consensus seems to be that it’s Strider’s time, I’ll zag and take Webb.</p>
<h3 id="eaziLe">AL Rookie of the Year</h3>
<p id="5lIbBy"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>The NL’s Rookie of the Year favorites are veterans of foreign WARs. The AL’s are domestic youngsters: the Rangers’ 22-year-old Wyatt Langford and 21-year-old Evan Carter, and the Orioles’ 20-year-old Jackson Holliday. Holliday’s surprising demotion to the minors last week gave Langford and Carter—not to mention other rookies who are breaking camp with the big club (such as Colt Keith, Ceddanne Rafaela, and the Orioles’ own Colton Cowser)—the inside track to the award, but because my colleagues select the two Rangers below, I’ll make the case for Holliday, who’s the son of former seven-time All-Star Matt, and the sport’s top prospect.</p>
<p id="phW1H0">Holliday is blocked at shortstop by Gunnar Henderson, <em>last </em>year’s award-winning Baltimore blue-chipper, but wherever he winds up—he’ll be<a href="https://www.pilotonline.com/2024/03/27/top-prospect-jackson-holliday-will-lead-off-play-second-and-get-maximum-at-bats-norfolk-tides-manager-says/#:~:text=The%2020%2Dyear%2Dold%20Holliday,manager%20Buck%20Britton%20said%20Wednesday."> starting at second</a> in Norfolk, though the keystone is crowded with prospects too—he’ll offer more defensive value than Langford and Carter, the Rangers’ DH and left fielder, respectively. This year, he may follow the trajectory of yet another Orioles prospect who ranked first overall, Adley Rutschman: The catcher came up in late May 2022, which relegated him to a no. 2 finish in a Rookie of the Year race with Julio, who started that season on the Mariners roster. Holliday hit well this spring—albeit not as well as Langford—and Orioles GM Mike Elias<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/jackson-holliday-reassigned-by-orioles"> said</a> he’s “very, very close.” The O’s can’t keep him down for long unless he struggles, which he didn’t do as he speedran four minor league levels last year. When Holliday does get the call, he may be good enough to make up for lost time and overtake the rookies who had a head start. There are all sorts of performance-related reasons to root for his arrival, but here’s one based on spite: To be frank, it would be funny if the O’s, having held him down partly to suppress his service time,<a href="https://theathletic.com/5362167/2024/03/22/orioles-jackson-holliday-minor-leagues/#:~:text=If%20Holliday%20does,control%20for%20Holliday."> lost out</a> on a draft pick <em>and</em> a year of team control because Holliday won the award anyway.</p>
<p id="ZUcQXd"><strong>Kram: </strong>Wyatt Langford. Since the introduction of the Rookie of the Year trophy, <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/hx3nz">28 rookies</a> have crushed at least 30 home runs in a season, and 18 of them (64 percent) won the award. Increase that threshold to 35 homers, and <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/m9PtQ">nine of 10 rookies</a> (90 percent) won the award; the only exception was Al Rosen, all the way back in 1950. Langford has the potential to join Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, and Aaron Judge, the most recent players in that rarefied air: The Rangers rookie, who will start on Opening Day for the defending champs, slugged .714 in spring training and .677 in the minor leagues last season.</p>
<p id="oam3lo"><strong>Wagner:</strong> Evan Carter. A sexier pick for 2024 AL ROY would be Carter’s ascendent teammate, highly touted prospect Wyatt Langford, who will break camp with the team in somewhat of a surprise. On the 20-to-80 scale that scouts often use to evaluate talent, Langford has 70 potential game power and 70 raw power, according to scouts at FanGraphs. Meanwhile, Carter was rated a 45 in both of those metrics, essentially average.</p>
<p id="S3WbLb">But there’s something dependable about Carter’s profile that I like here. Call it familiarity bias, but watching him look like a seasoned veteran just weeks after getting called up to the team that went on to win the World Series ought to hold some weight. And the underlying numbers back it up. Carter walked in 16 percent of his plate appearances last season, and (no pun intended) the eye test bears out those numbers. He immediately identified and tortured some of the best pitchers in baseball last September and October. I think Langford (and Jackson Holliday) will be splashier stars, but I’ll go conservative here.</p>
<h3 id="ysB1JT">NL Rookie of the Year</h3>
<p id="JFhV9F"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers. This winter’s lackluster free agent class was salvaged by big-name Asian players, all of whom landed with Senior Circuit clubs. Well-established stardom in another country’s major league doesn’t preclude players from claiming MLB Rookie of the Year laurels, so Yamamoto—who won three straight Sawamura Awards in Nippon Professional Baseball and left Japan to sign a $325 million deal with the Dodgers—will vie for the hardware along with countrymen Shota Imanaga and Yuki Matsui, and South Korean standout Jung Hoo Lee. Apologies to the Jacksons (Chourio and Merrill), Michael Busch, Kyle Harrison, Jared Jones, Victor Scott II, Yamamoto’s teammate Gavin Stone, and other unproven-but-promising prospects on Opening Day rosters, but if Yamamoto <em>doesn’t</em> follow in former Dodger Hideo Nomo’s footsteps and win this award, something will have gone wrong. (As it did during his one-inning, five-run Dodgers debut last week.)</p>
<p id="6derMu"><strong>Kram:</strong> Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Would the Dodgers have committed $325 million over 12 years to a player who’s <em>not</em> capable of being the best rookie in his league? Yamamoto might not finish this season with an ERA below 2.00, as he did in each of his last three seasons in Japan, but he’s already proved himself, over and over again, in the second-best league in the world.</p>
<p id="7ny1Im"><strong>Wagner:</strong> Jackson Chourio.<strong> </strong>For the same reasons Langford commands attention in the AL rookie race, Chourio draws my eye here. He’s <em>toolsy</em>, which is another way of saying he’ll be fun as hell to watch if his profile translates to the bigs. And the Brewers certainly think it will. They inked him to a historic eight-year, $82 million deal before he ever saw a pitch in the show. Young center fielders bursting with talent never get old.</p>
<h3 id="uZft3G">Breakout Player</h3>
<p id="zheQeV"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates. No, I’m not going super-obscure here. In fact, I’m risking a violation of<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/3/30/23663023/2023-mlb-preseason-predictions-shohei-ohtani-san-diego-padres#:~:text=Lindbergh%3A%20Andrew,Sorry%2C%20rant%20over.)"> one of my cardinal rules</a> of selecting breakout candidates, which is that their breakout can’t already have happened. (Seems self-evident, but it’s rarely respected!) However, my hipster approach to breakout eligibility saddled me with Andrew Vaughn last season—and so, stung by that experience, I’m pivoting to an ego-restoring safe pick, even if it means I must compromise my principles. Hayes may be the most popular breakout pick this side of CJ Abrams, but to this point, he hasn’t been a star (though he<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kebryan-hayes-captured-lightning-in-a-bottle/"> looked like one</a> for a month when he was called up in 2020). He’s 27, he’s three years removed from last appearing on prospect lists, and he’s a career below-league-average hitter who was just one percent better than that baseline last year. The rosiest of his ratings on defense paint him as a roughly 4-WAR player overall, but he’s never been an All-Star, never received MVP votes, and never won an offensive award. I’m guessing he’s going to check off at least two of those three achievements this year.</p>
<p id="TqgeXk">Hayes has long been a great glove guy who makes grounders disappear. But to balance the scales in some cosmic batted-ball equation, he’s also generated more than his fair share of worm burners with the bat, which has muted the impact of his high hard-hit rate and<a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kebryan-hayes-is-almost-elevating/"> suppressed</a><a href="https://pitcherlist.com/reach-for-the-stars-kebryan-hayes-is-attaining-his-full-potential/"> his</a><a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/kebryan-hayes-lifting-baseballs-self.html"> potential</a> at the plate. But last July, while on the IL, he<a href="https://theathletic.com/5286289/2024/02/21/pirates-losing-mlb-owner/"> changed his approach</a>, and after he returned on August 2, he slashed .299/.335/.539 (129 wRC+) the rest of the way. Combined with his fielding prowess, his offensive adjustments—which helped him more than double his average launch angle from 2022—propelled him to<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-08-02&enddate=2023-11-01&team=0&qual=0"> just outside the top 20</a> position players over that span, ranking him right around Austin Riley, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez. “That’s the type of player I want to be,” Hayes<a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2023/10/02/pirates-ke-bryan-hayes-team-mvp-gold-glove-back-injury-playoffs-2024/stories/202310010162"> said</a> last October. “I want to be able to do it for a whole season.” He may be about to: His .412/.434/.657 performance this spring has made him one of the<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/spring-training?pos=all&level=0&lg=33&stats=bat&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1"> top 10</a> batters in exhibition action (minimum 50 plate appearances). If I’m going to forecast a breakout by a good player, I have to think he’s gonna be <em>great</em>. Hayes could be incredible. </p>
<p id="9VadKH"><strong>Kram: </strong>Paul Skenes. If I define a “breakout” player as someone who can make waves on a national scale, a Pittsburgh Pirates minor leaguer probably wouldn’t be the top choice—even the most recent no. 1 pick. But when casual sports fans who don’t watch MLB might know the names of Ohtani, Judge, and no other active baseball players, it will take something beyond pure performance or talent to break out in this sense. And Skenes offers MLB’s best opportunity for a “Taylor Swift watches the NFL” phenomenon. That’s not because of the former LSU pitcher’s high-velocity fastball or devastating slider; it’s because he is way less famous than his girlfriend, LSU gymnast and social media star Livvy Dunne.</p>
<p id="jVar5z"><strong>Wagner:</strong> Davis Schneider. Let’s do a passing check-in on the Davis Schneider bio, in case you’re like me (didn’t know who this man was before September 2023): Drafted in 2017. Round 28. Pick 24. A round that no longer exists. Rec specs. 80-grade mustache. </p>
<p id="zfTFgW">You’ll notice that bio did not contain a lot of stats, or a lot of scouting highlights, or really any baseball analysis. That’s probably because he came out of nowhere to amass 2.0 fWAR in just 35 games for a Blue Jays team that had a solid but ultimately underwhelming 2023 campaign in which they were bounced in the wild-card round.</p>
<p id="O1lOiK">Here’s some baseball analysis (data scientists avert your eyes). For players who had at least 100 plate appearances in 2023 (the sample is fine, leave me alone!), Schneider’s 176 wRC+ ranks second behind only Shohei Ohtani—just ahead of Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Yordan Alvarez. </p>
<p id="c8Fz6d">Pretty much no one thinks he can keep this up. But … what if he did? That’d be quite a breakout.</p>
<h3 id="zmAMOe">Flop Team</h3>
<p id="Qqwuqi"><strong>Lindbergh:</strong> Yankees. Even after a season many New Yorkers considered disastrous, the Yankees are the FanGraphs favorites to win the AL East. Then again, they had the highest division odds<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2023-03-29&dateDelta="> last year</a> too, and they finished fourth. The Yankees’ deep (but not bottomless) pockets afford them a high floor, but the Bombers also have a high bar for flopping: For them, failure is anything other than winning the World Series. (By that<a href="https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/movies/aaron-judges-postseason-success-is-fueled-by-past-yankees-failures-033305709.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAny%20year%20you%E2%80%99re%20not%20the%20last%20man%20standing%2C%20the%20season%20is%20a%20failure%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said."> self-imposed</a> standard, they’ve failed an awful lot lately.) They’re at least as likely to return to the playoffs as they are to snap their streak of 31 winning seasons, but the downside risk is real. The lineup should be better than a two-man show—though its top two men, Judge and Soto, can carry an offense—but given the uncertain status of Cole’s elbow, there’s some serious collapse risk in a pitching staff that ranks<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team"> 17th</a> in projected WAR and depends on big bounce backs by Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes. This team has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons only once since the strike, and that was only a few years after its last title. If it happens again this year, the Bronx may burn.</p>
<p id="CuusEJ">Flop is always hard to define, and inevitably feels harsh when it’s uttered. But after 101 wins in 2023 and sky-high expectations lavished on a bunch of early-20s stars, I think there is some real regression potential in Baltimore’s profile this year.</p>
<p id="ETC2I8"><strong>Kram:</strong> St. Louis Cardinals. Projection systems believe in the Cardinals, despite their last-place finish last season: Both <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds">FanGraphs</a> and <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/"><em>Baseball Prospectus</em></a> predict that St. Louis is the most likely team to win the NL Central this year. But while Sonny Gray is a considerable upgrade over St. Louis’s other rotation options, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are mediocre at best and harmful at worst (see: Lynn’s league-leading 44 homers allowed last season). The Cardinals should score a lot of runs, but they might allow even more and struggle to climb back to the top of their division.</p>
<p id="d0vUg5"><strong>Wagner: </strong>Here we go … [<em>gulp</em>] I don’t know if I believe in the depth of the Baltimore Orioles’ roster! It would be disingenuous not to acknowledge the overwhelming young talent dotting the lineup, but young talent sometimes regresses a bit. The Orioles clearly caught magic in the regular season last year, but were quickly exposed by the (admittedly future World Series champion) Rangers. And despite the Corbin Burnes trade this offseason, this rotation has more questions than answers. John Means is coming back from Tommy John, which is never a sure proposition. And Kyle Bradish is trying to dodge TJ, which doesn’t leave a great taste in your mouth. To legitimately compete in a very tough AL East, they’ll need Grayson Rodriguez to expeditiously show that he can be the ace who was promised. Not to mention, we know that GM Mike Elias is … we’ll say … hesitant to make all-in moves.</p>
<h3 id="FnU3Ep">Surprise Team</h3>
<p id="mjs0yb"><strong>Lindbergh: </strong>Padres. The Padres missed the playoffs last season, then followed up that notable bust by trimming talent and payroll from the star-studded, expensive roster assembled through the largesse of late owner Peter Seidler. They traded their best player (Soto) and lost a large part of their pitching staff to free agency, shedding<a href="https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/jordan-montgomery-to-the-diamondbacks"> the most net 2023 WAR</a> of any team. They also share a division with three teams that ranked first, second, and fifth in net 2023 WAR <em>gained</em>. Nothing I just said screams “surprise team.” And yet … the Padres still have so many stars. (Ignore all the scrubs for a second.) Their timing/luck<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/10/3/23901260/2023-mlb-playoffs-payroll-postmortem-big-spenders"> can’t be worse</a> than it was last year, even though they <em>did</em> start this season with a game-altering<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-score-after-ball-goes-through-jake-cronenworth-s-glove"> equipment malfunction</a>. And they’ll definitely<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/19/24105728/mlb-opening-day-games-2024-dodgers-padres-seoul-series-korea"> lead the league in shortstops</a>, if nothing else. The Padres are a post-hype sleeper, which is not a natural role for them considering GM A.J. Preller is almost<a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2024-03-27/padres-aj-preller-job-eric-kutsenda-peter-seidler-general-manager-job"> always awake</a>. I’m guessing their bats will be less<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=15&sortdir=default&type=1&month=26"> somnolent in high-leverage spots</a> this season, and we can’t put any midseason upgrade past Preller, who pulled off the improbable feat of trading away his best hitter and trading <em>for </em>his projected best pitcher (Dylan Cease) in the same offseason. These Padres may not be as talented as last year’s squad, but that doesn’t mean they won’t win more games.</p>
<p id="qT9DF4"><strong>Kram:</strong> The Mariners have never reached the World Series—not even when they had Griffey and A-Rod and Randy and Edgar, not even when they won 116 games, not even when Ichiro and Felix were winning awards. So I think it’s safe to say they’d offer a pleasant surprise if they made their first Fall Classic appearance in 2024.</p>
<p id="6LKeHm"><strong>Wagner:</strong> At the time of publishing, the Brewers are projected by FanGraphs’ playoff odds to finish third in the NL Central. To me, this division is a toss-up. The Cardinals have the most “known quantities” anchoring their lineup (Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt). The Cubs are the most ascendant (adding Shota Imanaga and potentially calling up top prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong). But the Brewers, to me, are the dark horse that could upset the balance of the Central.</p>
<p id="7SUhzy">Milwaukee’s rotation took a big hit when the team traded Corbin Burnes to Baltimore earlier in the offseason. It took an equally big hit when it was announced that Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire 2024 season. When it comes to starting pitching, the Brewers are hanging on by a thread. But, behind the strength of Devin Williams and Trevor Megill (not to be confused with Mets ace-in-waiting Tylor Megill), they had the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball last season. Organizationally, they always seem to pull middle relievers out of their you-know-what.</p>
<p id="M5O6bT">Milwaukee also added Rhys Hoskins, who, for all his defensive deficiencies, I am confident will rake. And if Chourio breaks out, I like their lineup considerably better than the others in the Central. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="3ywo3N">Last, but certainly not least, you’re never gonna get me to quit Gary Sánchez. Thirty-homer season coming! Lose your GM, lose your ace, lose your manager. It doesn’t matter. You can still have it all.</p>
<aside id="fdB32A"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside>
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/28/24114438/2024-mlb-preseason-predictions-world-series-mvp-cy-young-breakout-playerZach KramBen LindberghBobby Wagner2024-03-28T09:01:41-04:002024-03-28T09:01:41-04:00Kram Session: Doc Rivers Regret, Lakers Conspiracies, and Playoff Possibilities
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>The results have yet to match the potential in Milwaukee. Did the Bucks make a mistake? Plus, free throw conspiracies, the most likely first-round playoff matchups, and more. </p> <p id="NKobDH"><em>Each Thursday of the NBA season, we’re analyzing a grab bag of topics from around the league. This week, we’re diving deep into the Doc Rivers–led Milwaukee Bucks, examining the Los Angeles Lakers’ massive free throw disparity, calculating the likeliest matchups in the first round of the NBA playoffs, and more. This is the Kram Session.</em></p>
<h3 id="20KOFP">Under Review: Are We Sure Doc Rivers Has Transformed the Bucks?</h3>
<p id="fb2dRE">Let’s play a game. I’m going to share some overarching statistics about two different NBA teams, and you’re going to decide which is better and more likely to win the championship.</p>
<div id="cu8UlS"><div data-anthem-component="table:12291675"></div></div>
<p id="CmNpjG">Team A has a higher winning percentage, entirely because of a better record in close games. Team B has a slightly better defense, but Team A has a better offense. Both teams appear to play to the level of their competition—they’re only OK against mediocre and bad teams, but they turn it on against top-tier opponents.</p>
<p id="HrvQq3">Which is better? Maybe you’ll pick Team A because it’s better in the clutch, so it wins more games; maybe you prefer Team B because it’s a bit more balanced. But the answer, at the very least, is a close call. </p>
<p id="eMwvX0">And now it’s time for the grand reveal: Team A is the Milwaukee Bucks before Doc Rivers’s first game as their new head coach, at the end of January. Team B is the Bucks with Doc on the bench.</p>
<p id="j1CVUW">Despite several false starts and early evidence that Milwaukee’s new coach <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/28/24085544/milwaukee-bucks-defense-giannis-antetokounmpo-doc-rivers">had fixed</a> the team’s problems—which happened to coincide with an easy stretch of the schedule—the Bucks are right back where they started when Rivers replaced first-time head coach Adrian Griffin midway through the season. The Bucks are still plagued by the same inconsistencies that cost Griffin his job. Sometimes, they blow out the Thunder and hold one of the league’s best teams to 93 points; other times, they blow a late lead to a Lakers team that’s missing LeBron James (as they did twice in March). </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><div id="AYgbIy"><div data-anthem-component="aside:11837248"></div></div></div>
<p id="E3dKK5">To be fair, some positive changes have emerged from Rivers’s presence on the bench. Before Doc took over, the Bucks defense ranked 22nd in fast-break points allowed (per NBA Advanced Stats) and 29th in transition frequency (per Cleaning the Glass). Since Doc took over, they’ve improved to fourth in fast-break points allowed and fifth in transition frequency. Milwaukee’s players have talked about how Rivers’s relationships and schemes contribute to a more cohesive unit on both ends of the floor.</p>
<p id="All9k7">But professionalism goes only so far when the personnel isn’t up to the task, and the Bucks still have the same major problem they’ve faced all season: a lack of perimeter stoppers (with Jrue Holiday gone) who can complement Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the frontcourt. One only needs to watch how D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves torched the Bucks for a combined 58 points on Tuesday to see Milwaukee’s persistent perimeter weakness in effect.</p>
<p id="IeJikY">While the Bucks have improved in transition, their half-court defense hasn’t followed suit. Milwaukee ranked 20th in half-court defensive rating before Rivers’s first game with the team, per CtG, and is 18th since. None of the teams with a worse half-court defense than the Bucks this season are true Finals candidates.</p>
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<p id="VonbrM">Title contenders in the NBA generally fall into one of two statistical categories: A team can compete with balance, by ranking in the top 10 on both offense and defense, or it can compensate for merely average performance on one side with a best-in-the-league showing on the other. In other words, ranking near the middle of the pack defensively, as the Bucs have with Rivers, would be OK if the Bucks were scoring as efficiently as a team with Giannis and Damian Lillard should—but they aren’t even a top-10 offensive team with Rivers on the bench, let alone top two or three.</p>
<p id="wQdJS8">Maybe Milwaukee’s offense will improve as the regular season winds to a close and the playoffs begin. The team will likely land the no. 2 seed in the East, after all. Lillard’s 3-point percentage has perked up since the All-Star break, Khris Middleton has looked reasonably strong in four games since he returned from injury, and rotations shorten in the playoffs, which should benefit Milwaukee’s top-heavy roster. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="4H7uhE"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"2024 NBA Draft Guide: Two-Round Mock and Updated Big Board ","url":"https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.244593671.369517003.1711367799-2023644046.1682014580"},{"title":"Five Dream First-Round Matchups for the 2024 NBA Playoffs","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/26/24112347/2024-nba-playoffs-potential-first-round-matchups"},{"title":"Anthony Edwards and the Mindless Quest to Find the “Next Jordan” ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/25/24110960/anthony-edwards-michael-jordan-minnesota-timberwolves"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="qduJEo"><a href="https://www.theringer.com/2023/4/13/23681148/2023-nba-playoff-preview-how-to-use-and-not-use-lineup-data">Interpreting lineup data is tricky</a>, but when Lillard, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Lopez share the court, the Bucks are outscoring their opponents by 15.5 points per 100 possessions—the best net rating for any four-man unit with at least 500 minutes. Another Bucks quartet, with fifth starter Malik Beasley joining Lillard, Middleton, and Giannis, has the second-best net rating. (The <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*GE*500&GroupQuantity=4&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=NET_RATING">top 11 four-man units</a> by net rating all belong to the Bucks, Celtics, or Nuggets.)</p>
<p id="ftDjhi">But at some point, results must match potential, and the Bucks have yet to put together the sort of sustained run that would suggest they’re a legitimate threat to unseat the Celtics atop the East. Milwaukee’s underlying numbers don’t look much better—if anything, they might even look <em>worse</em>—since Rivers arrived, and the surface stats are even less encouraging.</p>
<p id="OB2twX">The Bucks are only 14-12 with Rivers on the bench, which converts to a 44-win pace over 82 games. That’s the winning percentage of a team that hopes to advance out of the play-in round and give a better team a tough first-round series, not an <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/10/23/23928196/2023-nba-season-all-index-phoenix-suns-milwaukee-bucks">all-in Finals contender</a> with four All-Stars on the roster, including two of the best players in the sport.</p>
<h3 id="NoEqv4">Take That for Data: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy</h3>
<p id="MjJ4Fb">Another <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/12/28/24017027/free-throw-parade-nba-officials-steve-kerr-fact-check">free throw conspiracy</a> is afoot. <a href="https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1772122301531578765">Social media</a> is abuzz <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370">with data points</a> about the Lakers, who have attempted 451 more free throws than their opponents this season—more than double the next-biggest margin and on pace for a plus-507 margin by the season’s end. This comes after L.A. led the league with a plus-476 margin last season.</p>
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<p id="YoeTCM">But is that sort of advantage actually unusual? We can investigate by examining the Lakers’ placement not only next to their peers this season, but also next to high–free throw teams throughout history.</p>
<p id="Z3ubMv">Let’s start with a quiz: Reader, do you have any guesses for the team with the largest free throw disparity this century? Maybe these Lakers or another roster with LeBron? Perhaps a James Harden team? Maybe one with Shaq and Kobe?</p>
<p id="f3PqBb">All those reasonable-sounding possibilities are wrong—the average NBA fan could get 100 guesses and still not stumble on the right answer. The free throw disparity kings of the 21st century are the 2017-18 Charlotte Hornets, who went 36-46 despite attempting a whopping 722 more free throws than their opponents. It’s hard to imagine that the league office concocted a conspiracy to help those Hornets, whose leading free throw takers were Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Clearly, there’s more to a large free throw disparity than player reputation or the whims of referees.</p>
<p id="4Ck5Tr">On a percentage basis, those Hornets attempted 48 percent more free throws than their opponents. For comparison, the 2022-23 Lakers were at plus-28 percent (which ranks 15th this century), and the 2023-24 Lakers are at plus-34 percent (which ranks ninth this century) with 10 games to go.</p>
<div id="a6Qfaw"><div data-anthem-component="table:12291683"></div></div>
<p id="ezJYxa">Note a few key takeaways from this chart. First, the 2023-24 Lakers are an outlier this season, but not compared to recent history. Second, rather than the result of some secret, league-aided scheme, it’s far more likely that large free throw disparities are the result of a few key figures, such as Howard, who was a member of three of the top five teams on this chart. That relationship makes sense because Howard both drew a lot of fouls and walled off the rim on the other end, limiting opponents’ free throws. Teams led by Harden and Tim Duncan also make multiple appearances on this chart.</p>
<p id="I6d0E2">And third, an extreme advantage in free throw attempts doesn’t actually lead to extreme winning. Of the top 15 teams this century in free throw disparity by percentage (not counting this season’s Lakers), the average regular-season record was only 49-33, and only one of those teams reached the Finals (Allen Iverson’s 2000-01 76ers).</p>
<p id="0hZ4z2">Beyond a pernicious plot, moreover, there is ample reason to believe this Lakers team <em>should</em> draw many more fouls than it commits. On offense, the Lakers rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate, per CtG, and are tied for second in the rate of shots they attempt at the rim. (The team with the highest at-rim frequency is Orlando, which <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/four-factors?dir=A&sort=FTA_RATE">leads the league</a> in free throw rate.) In other words, L.A. takes a larger proportion of its shots in the area most likely to draw foul calls.</p>
<p id="UNuVV3">And on defense, the opposite is true: The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/four-factors?dir=A&sort=OPP_FTA_RATE">rank second</a> in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth.</p>
<p id="r4BZ6y">Put another way, the Lakers have taken 435 more free throws than their opponents this season—but they’ve taken <em>513</em> fewer 3-pointers (ahead of only the Bulls’ minus-535 margin). Given that <a href="https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/team?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartType=All&Type=Team&StatType=Totals&Table=FTs">not even 1 percent</a> of 3-point attempts produce foul calls, that’s a gigantic number of extra shots on which the Lakers can draw contact.</p>
<p id="ndMoMO">Does the starry presence of LeBron and Anthony Davis play a role in the Lakers’ charity stripe advantage? Almost certainly, because stars have always drawn extra fouls. But that’s no reason to believe in a conspiracy; there are plenty of contextual factors that explain their overwhelming free throw figures and why that skew isn’t leading to more regular-season success.</p>
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<h3 id="ncjRFT">
<br>Zacht of the Week: The Likeliest First-Round Playoff Matchups</h3>
<p id="h4eodr">Earlier this week, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/26/24112347/2024-nba-playoffs-potential-first-round-matchups">five of my <em>Ringer</em> colleagues</a> picked their “dream first-round matchups” for this postseason. I would be entertained by all of their selections: a battle of youth versus experience in Thunder-Lakers; a Bucks-Heat rematch; a Pelicans-Clippers clash; and superstar showdowns in Nuggets-Mavericks or Timberwolves-Mavericks.</p>
<p id="7uqa0N">But how likely is each possibility? The answer, unfortunately, is not very. According to <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/odds-machine">our NBA Odds Machine</a>, only one specific possible first-round playoff series has more than a 50 percent chance of occurring. With just over two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff standings are still knotty just about everywhere except the top two seeds in the East; add in the complications of the play-in structure—which adds no. 9 and no. 10 seeds such as the Bulls and Warriors to the mix—and the permutations grow even more vast.</p>
<p id="jplSWd">Here is every possible first-round series in the Western Conference with at least a 10 percent likelihood, as of Thursday morning: </p>
<div id="piqCAR"><div data-anthem-component="table:12291686"></div></div>
<p id="7ZrvOi">The 6-seeded Mavericks, for instance, have a decent chance of facing the Clippers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Thunder, or Pelicans—it’s impossible to predict with any certainty which opponent might have to try to slow down Luka Doncic in a playoff setting. Fortunately, all of those options sound exciting; that’s what happens when every one of a conference’s potential playoff teams carries intrigue and stardom.</p>
<p id="oxSEO0">Here’s the same chart for the East, with similarly scattered percentages:</p>
<div id="twlMcM"><div data-anthem-component="table:12291688"></div></div>
<p id="nnNhIt">One key takeaway is that there’s a two-thirds chance of a first-round series between the 76ers and either the Celtics or Bucks—a clash of titans if Joel Embiid can make his long-awaited return for the postseason.</p>
<h3 id="blTCXT">Fast Breaks</h3>
<h4 id="HoVr57">1. The NBA’s major individual awards are all but sewn up.</h4>
<p id="U82COb">Is it just me, or is this the quietest, most peaceful set of awards debates in recent memory? In many cases, it would be a stretch to even call them “debates” this year. FanDuel odds give Nikola Jokic an implied 85 percent probability to win MVP. They give Rudy Gobert an implied 87 percent probability to win Defensive Player of the Year. They give Malik Monk an implied 84 percent probability to win Sixth Man of the Year. And they’re completely off the board for Rookie of the Year because Victor Wembanyama is such a heavy favorite.</p>
<p id="fTXJRh">Those are the biggest, typically most contentious awards, which have produced plenty of rancor in the past (see: Jokic vs. Embiid, Marcus Smart for DPOY, Ben Simmons vs. Donovan Mitchell for top rookie honors); in contrast, nobody will get up in arms about the Most Improved Player, Clutch Player of the Year, or Coach of the Year races. And while it’s possible to make strong cases this year for alternate candidates for the most prestigious awards—I crafted <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/21/24107252/victor-wembanyama-dpoy-defense-lakers-warriors-kram-session">a Wemby DPOY take</a> in this column last week!—the favorites are so far ahead of the field, in both narratives and Vegas odds, that the public acrimony has been kept to a minimum.</p>
<h4 id="I7fEI9">2. Are Boston’s clutch woes overstated?</h4>
<p id="nty9IP">The Celtics lost another close game on Monday, blowing a big lead in Atlanta to fall to 57-15 on the season. The perception that almost every Celtics loss comes in this fashion isn’t wrong: Out of Boston’s 15 losses this season, 11 have come in “clutch” games, meaning the score was within five points in the last five minutes. That tally includes every loss during the team’s current 20-3 stretch since February 1, and it feeds into larger fears about the Celtics’ potential Achilles’ heel in the postseason.</p>
<p id="IKlKCE">But strictly by the numbers, Boston has survived just fine in the clutch this season. The Celtics have 11 clutch losses, sure, but they also have 20 clutch wins, and their 65 percent win rate in such games ranks fourth in the league. Moreover, the Celtics’ much-derided clutch offense ranks sixth in efficiency (121.8 points per 100 possessions, very similar to their 122.5 offensive rating overall), and the team ranks fifth in clutch defense, too.</p>
<p id="GNpVAs">It’s hard to trust Boston’s performance in close games given past playoff failures. But a few uncomfortable losses shouldn’t mask the title favorite’s broader strides.</p>
<h4 id="NRrlou">3. Wild NBA-NCAA crossover takes? This is March.</h4>
<p id="AGmyud">Let’s end on a March Madness note today, as the Sweet 16 begins in the men’s Division I hoops tournament. Earlier this week, <a href="https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/mike-greenberg-uconn-huskies-nba-playoffs.html">ESPN host Mike Greenberg opined</a> that the top-seeded University of Connecticut—which seeks to become the first repeat champion in the men’s field since Florida won in 2006 and 2007—could conceivably compete for a playoff spot in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.</p>
<p id="fOQTP2">Perhaps I’m tilting at windmills here, but this sort of argument pops up every time a dominant college team arises, so let’s consider it for the brief duration of a Fast Break. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="hYeeVj">First, UConn’s best player during its title run last season was big man Adama Sanogo; he spent almost all of this season playing for the Bulls’ G League team, unable to get more than a few token minutes at the NBA level. Second, UConn’s best prospects this year are ace defenders Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle, who go seventh and eighth, respectively, in <a href="https://nbadraft.theringer.com/">Kevin O’Connor’s new mock</a> of the weak 2024 draft. For reference, in a much stronger draft last year, the seventh and eighth picks were Bilal Coulibaly and Jarace Walker, respectively. Could a team <em>led by</em> the equivalent of Coulibaly and Walker possibly contend for a playoff berth? Certainly not.</p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/28/24114310/doc-rivers-milwaukee-bucks-lebron-james-los-angeles-lakersZach Kram2024-03-27T06:30:00-04:002024-03-27T06:30:00-04:00The 2024 MLB Preseason Power Rankings
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<p>MLB Opening Day is almost here, and it’s time to break down the sport’s unpredictable pecking order. Can anyone compete with the top two teams? Who will be this season’s Rangers/Diamondbacks-esque surprise? And how will the wild-card race shake out?</p> <p id="XiyvOS">The 2024 MLB season is here, and with it, another round of <em>Ringer</em> power rankings. Are these rankings predictive? In one sense, yes: Eight playoff teams ranked in the top 14 of <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/3/28/23659314/2023-mlb-preseason-power-rankings-astros-dodgers-mets-yankees">our preseason power rankings</a> last season, meaning they were generally right. </p>
<p id="GL0Ksp">But in another sense, no, they are not, because as the cliché goes, you can’t predict baseball: The two World Series teams, which both reached the playoffs as wild cards, were 17th and 21st in these rankings. I wrote that the Rangers were “unlikely to return to the playoffs this season” and the Diamondbacks “probably won’t make the playoffs this season.” Oops! (At least I correctly pegged the D-backs as a surprise team <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/3/30/23663023/2023-mlb-preseason-predictions-shohei-ohtani-san-diego-padres">in our staff predictions post</a>; apparently, they surprised even me.)</p>
<p id="iHOvOR">So congratulations, I suppose, to the Mets and Red Sox, who rank 17th and 21st, respectively, in the 2024 edition of our annual preseason power rankings. I’m sure the TV networks will be thrilled with a 1986 World Series rematch this fall. But where do the other 28 teams land in the pecking order? Read on to find out.</p>
<h3 id="hiRqjL">1. Atlanta Braves</h3>
<blockquote><p id="rVVG3G">With nearly the entirety of Atlanta’s division-winning core locked up for the next half-decade or more, I might as well write a good introductory sentence now and copy-paste it for many Marches to come: Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies form the foundation of a dynamic, five-tool lineup, while Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Kyle Wright lock down the top of the rotation.</p></blockquote>
<p id="0vAoBN">This was the first sentence of my blurb about Atlanta in the 2023 preseason rankings, and lo and behold, it’s almost all still true. Sub in Chris Sale for Wright—an upgrade if the veteran lefty can stay healthy—and Atlanta’s core looks even more fearsome now than it did a year ago.</p>
<p id="osgR8t">It’s a mark of the randomness of MLB’s postseason that an 88-win Atlanta team won the World Series without Acuña in 2021, while the 2022 and 2023 versions each won more than 100 games only to lose in the NLDS. Another 100-plus wins and an NL East title would be no guarantee of further postseason success—but on the eve of the new season, Atlanta is the most likely team to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy this fall.</p>
<h3 id="9ozouH">2. Los Angeles Dodgers</h3>
<p id="JyFphU">There’s a clear gap between the top two teams and everyone else—but there might be a decent-sized gap between the top two teams as well because Los Angeles has more roster questions than Atlanta does.</p>
<p id="mSZGjw">Can Mookie Betts hold up at shortstop for a full season? (Probably, but he’s untested there.) Is the rotation good enough? (Probably, but health and inexperience are legitimate concerns.) Will Shohei Ohtani remain in a Dodgers uniform all season? (Probably, but he now faces the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/23/24109952/shohei-ohtani-gambling-intepreter-mlb-investigation-biggest-questions">outside chance</a> of a suspension that nobody expected a week ago.)</p>
<p id="JasO9w">The Dodgers look like a superteam almost every year, and 2024 is no exception after the team added Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernández in the offseason. These questions are mostly about picking nits with an otherwise spectacular roster. But that’s more than we can do with Atlanta’s.</p>
<aside id="CdDSeG"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Five Big Questions About MLB’s Investigation Into Shohei Ohtani and His Interpreter ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/23/24109952/shohei-ohtani-gambling-intepreter-mlb-investigation-biggest-questions"},{"title":"MLB’s Opening Series Is a Matchup Between Two Extraordinary Teams ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/19/24105728/mlb-opening-day-games-2024-dodgers-padres-seoul-series-korea"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="0OCzcq">3. Philadelphia Phillies</h3>
<p id="HKCGn6">Perhaps even more than the two best teams in baseball, the Phillies are built to win in October, with a dominant duo at the top of the rotation, a deep bullpen full of flamethrowers, and a lineup that balances tremendous home run power with newfound defensive prowess. (Johan Rojas in center field and Brandon Marsh in left are quite the upgrades over Marsh in center and Kyle Schwarber in left.) There’s a reason this team finished just one win short of consecutive trips to the World Series. </p>
<p id="uXOyjC">The next step for the Phillies is better consistency throughout the regular season. In 2022, they started 21-29 and then won at a 95-win pace the rest of the way. In 2023, they started 25-32 before heating up to a 100-win pace thereafter. So as long as the club realizes the season begins before June this year, it should cruise back to the playoffs—and maybe even challenge Atlanta for the division crown.</p>
<p id="nhHjti">Also note the gigantic gap between these three teams and the rest of the National League. After this top trio in the power rankings come eight AL teams among the next nine picks.</p>
<h3 id="o9DkBf">4. Baltimore Orioles</h3>
<p id="2oOsqX">The 2023 Orioles were not quite the juggernaut that their 101 wins suggested; thanks in large part to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1">clutch hitting</a> and closer Félix Bautista, who <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=0&sortcol=2&sortdir=default">led all AL pitchers</a> in win probability added, they overperformed their <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240118205429/https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns">89-73 BaseRuns record</a> by 12 games, which was by far the biggest gap in the majors.</p>
<p id="mLh5hu">And Baltimore didn’t so much improve this offseason as it filled in the gaps from last year’s roster: Craig Kimbrel, the only free agent the Orioles signed to an MLB contract, is a worse version of the injured Bautista, and Corbin Burnes, their main trade acquisition, might end up effectively replacing Kyle Bradish if last year’s fourth-place Cy Young finisher misses extended time with an elbow injury.</p>
<p id="5QkItr">But Baltimore’s <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87996/2024-prospects-organizational-prospect-rankings/">best-in-baseball farm system</a> means the club’s ceiling and floor are both elevated. Adley Rutschman is the only irreplaceable position player on the roster; an injury to anyone else would just mean more playing time for no. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday (curiously starting the season in the minor leagues), Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, or any other number of elite prospects pounding on the big league door. With that kind of support over 162 games, don’t be surprised if the Orioles avoid the typical sting of regression and clinch the best record in the American League once again.</p>
<h3 id="aSdLVj">5. Houston Astros</h3>
<p id="bKmkCK">The Astros have made seven ALCS appearances in a row, and an eighth may well be on the horizon. This lineup should continue to mash, as young slugger Yainer Diaz finally supplants Martín Maldonado behind the plate and joins all the Houston stalwarts who have mashed together for years. (<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&qual=400">Among players</a> with at least 400 plate appearances last season, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker all ranked in the top 13 in wRC+.)</p>
<p id="RnYbUT">But have you seen this team’s rotation to start the season, while Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, and Luis Garcia all rehab injuries? Framber Valdez is the only healthy Astros starter who posted a better-than-average FIP last season (and he wasn’t the same in the second half); Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and J.P. France all slotted in at slightly below to far below average.</p>
<p id="kQnDTn">The Astros are still the Astros, but it’s hard to have quite as much faith in a team with about 1.5 trustworthy starters.</p>
<h3 id="qxewrj">6. Texas Rangers</h3>
<p id="VDY1L3">The World Series champs are conducting a fascinating experiment with their pitching staff in their attempt to repeat. Three of Texas’s top four starting pitchers—Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle—won’t be available until midseason at best as they recover from injuries. But as long as fill-ins like Michael Lorenzen and Dane Dunning can hold down the fort until reinforcements arrive, Texas should be well-suited for a second-half charge.</p>
<p id="BymorZ">And the offense should soar all season, as two of the league’s most exciting rookies—Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford—join incumbent stars Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García. The Rangers certainly aren’t favored to become the first repeat champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees, but they at least enter the season with a chance.</p>
<h3 id="azqAub">7. Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
<p id="qBD9Cb">Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Rays have a lot of injured starting pitchers, a lot of position player depth, and a lot of anonymous but excellent relievers. Tampa Bay has reached the playoffs five years in a row with this general formula, and that train probably won’t stop chugging now.</p>
<p id="tP8VXN">Which Rays reclamation project will awe and surprise this year, as converted reliever Zack Littell <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-zack-littell-is-a-starter-now/">did</a> in 2023? Keep an eye on Chris Devenski, the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2017/4/7/16046862/2017-mlb-bullpen-roles-andrew-miller-archie-bradley-chris-devenski-7fa76de0a1cc">onetime fireman wunderkind</a> for Houston, who’s an option to start for Tampa Bay this season despite pitching almost entirely as a reliever and not finishing with an ERA below 4.18 in any season since 2017. </p>
<h3 id="t6JOf5">8. Seattle Mariners</h3>
<p id="9af0Uf">According to FanGraphs, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=fangraphsdc">24 pitchers</a> are projected to record at least 3 wins above replacement this season. Only a handful of teams have more than one ace. Two each pitch for Atlanta (which places first in these power rankings), the Dodgers (second), the Phillies (third), and the Cubs (farther down). But a league-best <em>three</em> such pitchers play for the Mariners: Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. No. 4 starter Bryce Miller and no. 5 Bryan Woo (who will start the season on the injured list) are no slouches, either.</p>
<p id="OGr1i3">Add in the lineup depth for which inveterate trader Jerry Dipoto wheeled and dealt this offseason—Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, and Luis Urías all entered the fold—and the Mariners look like a legitimate threat to compete for their first AL West title since 2001. At the very least, even if the Astros and/or Rangers outpace them, a wild-card berth should be well within their grasp.</p>
<div id="cPA8mx"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0ySYsqzETC9PezUe9KI4y4?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
<h3 id="8UwBtI">
<br>9. New York Yankees</h3>
<p id="NO9bQl">In an initial draft of these rankings, the Yankees were three spots higher. Then Gerrit Cole’s elbow started barking, and the chief downside of building a stars-and-scrubs roster reared its ugly head. As it is, Cole is unlikely to pitch in the majors for the season’s first two months, and he might miss the entire season if rest doesn’t help him heal.</p>
<p id="fDdCR6">The absence of the reigning AL Cy Young winner leaves the Yankees rotation reliant on bounce-backs from Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes Jr., but a weak back of the rotation and aberrantly subpar bullpen could stress New York’s run prevention to the breaking point. Sure, Juan Soto should provide the offense with a massive boost by giving Aaron Judge a worthy partner—but Judge also enters the season with injury concerns, and the Yankees lineup, which is already missing DJ LeMahieu, doesn’t have the depth of the division rival Orioles and Rays.</p>
<p id="2ZJoMt">Projection systems still peg the Yankees as more likely to make the playoffs than not, but they need a lot of questionable body parts to cooperate to make that projection a reality.</p>
<h3 id="X4QP2h">10. Arizona Diamondbacks</h3>
<p id="f2gFGq">It’s difficult to decipher this Diamondbacks squad, which reached the World Series after knocking out the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies (good!) but finished the regular season with a negative run differential and made the playoffs only because the National League standings were so skewed (bad!).</p>
<p id="13RGK0">The optimistic view is that Arizona shored up some weaknesses this winter through the additions of veterans Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodríguez, Joc Pederson, and Eugenio Suárez. (Montgomery and E-Rod in particular should help, once the former gets in game shape and the latter returns from a lat strain, because Arizona survived the playoffs with about 2.5 good starters.) The pessimistic view is that Arizona is still clearly a class below the Dodgers, and outside continued improvement from youngsters Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Brandon Pfaadt, the roster doesn’t contain many areas with obvious upside.</p>
<h3 id="lmki7j">11. Minnesota Twins</h3>
<p id="fOQJSi">The Twins basically sat out the winter and now have a couple of glaring roster problems at hand: They didn’t replace Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, and they’re desperately counting on oft-injured players such as Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis to play every day because the position player depth behind them is a concern.</p>
<p id="UtgN5G">However, the team’s greatest advantage is its continued presence in the weak AL Central, which should mute the impact of those issues. (An excellent core of young hitters, including Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, is also a distinct strength.) FanGraphs’ <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">schedule-neutral projections</a> say that the Twins and Blue Jays have basically the same roster quality, but Minnesota is <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds">projected</a> to win its division by five games, while Toronto is projected to finish fourth in the AL East. </p>
<h3 id="nRJamx">12. Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
<p id="gEFX9s">Speaking of Toronto! The Blue Jays retain a strong, balanced roster but face an important overarching question: Will Toronto’s stars live up to their reputations in 2024? Kevin Gausman suffered from shoulder fatigue this spring. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=1b&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2021">led all qualified first basemen</a> in WAR in 2021 but tied for ninth in the same stat in 2022 and 19th in 2023. George Springer is coming off the worst offensive season of his career. A bunch of average-ish seasons from their best players would hamper the Blue Jays’ competitive potential, once again relegating them to a wild-card berth at best.</p>
<h3 id="MXybIY">13. Chicago Cubs</h3>
<p id="vE7Ao9">The Cubs finished nine games behind the Brewers last season, even though the Cubs’ BaseRuns record was six games better. The difference was that Chicago finished eight games <em>worse</em> than its “deserved” record, while Milwaukee finished seven games <em>better</em> than its underlying numbers suggested.</p>
<p id="IRAPXd">Maybe the difference was the manager the Cubs swiped from their division rival this winter, Craig Counsell, who has a knack for coaxing the best out of his team. The Wrigley Field faithful had better hope that move matters, because other than replacing Marcus Stroman with Shota Imanaga, this is basically the same Cubs roster that made strides but failed to reach the playoffs last season.</p>
<h3 id="tPTNhr">14. San Diego Padres</h3>
<p id="hYoMSB">The Padres lost their best hitter (Juan Soto), best starter (Blake Snell), and best reliever (Josh Hader) from last season—yet it wouldn’t be a surprise if they finished with a better record than last year’s 82-80 mark.</p>
<p id="5aLV5m">Part of that optimism stems from A.J. Preller’s typically active offseason: Michael King (from the Soto trade) and Dylan Cease (essentially the right-handed version of Snell) have joined the rotation. Part of it is a bet that the Padres’ <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2023/10/3/23901260/2023-mlb-playoffs-payroll-postmortem-big-spenders">horrendous luck</a> in close games (9-23 in one-run contests, 2-12 in extra innings) will even out. And part of it is a belief that even without Soto and Snell, this lineup and rotation are simply too talented—Fernando Tatis Jr.! Manny Machado! Xander Bogaerts! Cease! Yu Darvish! Joe Musgrove!—not to compete for a wild-card berth.</p>
<h3 id="Qtx06d">15. San Francisco Giants</h3>
<p id="FylJDw">Despite scant activity at the start of winter, the Giants remained opportunistic and ended up making a bunch of meaningful roster improvements. Although they missed out on Ohtani and Yamamoto (and Judge and Carlos Correa last winter), the Giants signed Jung Hoo Lee, Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell—the final two to short-term deals in March after the contracts they were seeking didn’t materialize.</p>
<p id="1X5BSl">The rotation still relies on unproven starters after Snell and Logan Webb, and the lineup still doesn’t have an obvious foundational centerpiece (other than Patrick Bailey, who’s a defensive wizard behind the plate but carries a questionable bat). But after finishing with a winning record just once since 2016, the Giants should get over the hump to 82 wins and wild-card contention this season.</p>
<h3 id="yMt67n">16. St. Louis Cardinals</h3>
<p id="DdSR2l">Projections think the Cardinals will bounce back from their 71-91 disaster in 2023—the franchise’s worst record since 1990—and new starters Sonny Gray (currently injured), Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson should help. But how much? Lynn allowed an MLB-worst 44 home runs last season, en route to a 5.73 ERA, and Gibson has recorded a better-than-average ERA once in the past half decade. Sure, they’re better than Adam Wainwright in his swan song (not to be confused with <a href="https://www.ksdk.com/article/sports/mlb/stl-cardinals/adam-wainwright-song-country-music-album-feb-23/63-7bb9808f-0b65-4460-b4fe-ced979758271">his country songs</a>), but this rotation still looks like one of the worst on a contender.</p>
<p id="G0CIEM">The lineup should provide balance, though, as St. Louis <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=28">is projected</a> to have above-average production (more than 2 WAR) from every position except designated hitter. The Cardinals lineup is balanced between lefties and righties, youth and experience, power and speed. But can they score enough to compensate for another lackluster staff?</p>
<div id="3Rsrsl"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/38a53a6Kw3Kz3yiBQmZL2V?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
<h3 id="HnWzOg">
<br>17. New York Mets</h3>
<p id="4YlXxE">The Mets look a lot like the Cardinals: They’re both 2023 underachievers who hope that a strong lineup can help them return to contention in 2024. Two factors drop New York one rung below St. Louis in these power rankings, however. First, the Mets rotation is even worse than the Cardinals’ as long as ace Kodai Senga is hurt; any team relying this much on Luis Severino and his 6.65 ERA from last season can’t actually be considered a favorite to reach the postseason.</p>
<p id="TQQI8k">Second, the Mets play in the NL East, where they enter the season well behind Atlanta and Philadelphia. What’s more likely this year: that New York will return to playoff contention or that the club will trade impending free agent Pete Alonso at the trade deadline?</p>
<h3 id="aRGqFY">18. Milwaukee Brewers</h3>
<p id="5wlbfn">Burnes, Counsell, and former president of baseball operations David Stearns are gone, and Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff are hurt. That’s five of the most important figures from the Brewers’ recent run of contention all out (whether temporarily or permanently). </p>
<p id="n0xrg1">Milwaukee still deserves some benefit of the doubt because of that recent success; other than the 2020 season, when they went 29-31, the Brewers have had at least 86 wins every year since 2016. But the Brewers have considerable downside potential this season, with the rotation looking shakier than ever and the offense relying on a bevy of unproven youngsters, led by elite prospect Jackson Chourio. </p>
<h3 id="GeZu2a">19. Cincinnati Reds</h3>
<p id="1gjcwX">Like their most exciting player, Elly De La Cruz, the Reds enter the season with a massive gap between their high ceiling and low floor. De La Cruz could round into a five-tool superstar, and Cincinnati could win the NL Central for the first time in a dozen years. Or De La Cruz’s 34 percent strikeout rate could limit his production at the plate, and Cincinnati could flounder in a closely bunched division. (<em>Baseball Prospectus</em>’s projection system indeed <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/89212/100000-leagues-under-the-pecota-2024/">deemed</a> the Reds the “hardest team to predict.”)</p>
<p id="58LqZO">The club’s most immediate concern is player absences. The Reds went from having <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-bell-has-a-problem-any-manager-would-love-to-solve/">too many good infielders</a> to possibly not enough: Noelvi Marte is out for 80 games due to a PED suspension, and Matt McLain might need shoulder surgery. Cincinnati’s lineup doesn’t look nearly as deep without that duo and outfielder TJ Friedl, who broke his wrist earlier this month.</p>
<h3 id="0RY2j8">20. Cleveland Guardians</h3>
<p id="Nx8ayO">The Guardians hit 27 fewer home runs than any other team last season. And to address that glaring problem over the offseason, they … signed Austin Hedges—the majors’ <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&rost=1&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1871&season=2023&sortcol=17&sortdir=asc&qual=2000">worst active hitter</a> by a mile—and traded for a few minor leaguers. </p>
<p id="3ZqWlj">Once again, Cleveland has José Ramírez, a strong starting rotation, and a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-projected-mlb-team-defenses-2024">skilled defense</a>; once again, the team is hoping that’s sufficient to compete in a weak AL Central.</p>
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<h3 id="Ti8OXZ">
<br>21. Boston Red Sox</h3>
<p id="0QuV9p">The Red Sox have half a dozen no. 4 or 5 starters on the roster, but unfortunately, the man they signed to take the ball on Opening Day—Lucas Giolito—is out for the season after tearing his UCL. Unless Rafael Devers or Triston Casas secretly learned how to pitch over the winter, that’s about it for the club’s playoff chances. If the city of Boston were to shift about 700 miles west so the team could play in the AL Central, the Red Sox might have a chance to win the division—but in the AL East, they’ll need some luck to avoid their third last-place finish in a row.</p>
<h3 id="aMkzar">22. Detroit Tigers</h3>
<p id="FjFwcj">Buoyed by a strong finish to last season, and led by Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound and a youth brigade in the field, the Tigers look like a sneaky contender to usurp the AL Central throne. Of course, basically the same could be said about the 2022 Tigers, and they face-planted to the tune of a 66-96 record. </p>
<p id="QV0HXJ">Along with the Angels, Detroit has the joint longest playoff drought in the majors, with no October trips since 2014. The nicest observation to make about the Tigers is that, even with recent history against them, they’re a whole lot closer to ending that drought than the Angels are.</p>
<h3 id="BK7Oye">23. Miami Marlins</h3>
<p id="nN2rnR">Four of Miami’s five best starting pitchers are hurt, and these aren’t minor injuries. Sandy Alcantara already underwent Tommy John surgery, Eury Pérez is in elbow inflammation limbo, and both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are dealing with shoulder issues.</p>
<p id="b1jYW0">The Marlins felt confident enough in their pitching core that they traded from a position of strength a year ago, when they swapped Pablo López for Luis Arraez in a win-win deal. Now, as they attempt to return to the playoffs, they’re stuck with converted reliever A.J. Puk as their no. 2 starter, followed by Ryan Weathers and his career 5.88 ERA in the no. 3 spot.</p>
<h3 id="H8jJEZ">24. Kansas City Royals</h3>
<p id="ExGsJP">The Royals bottomed out last season with a 56-106 record that tied for the worst in franchise history. (And that’s saying something for a club with Kansas City’s track record.) But that 106-loss team planted exciting seeds for this season, because the Royals have dark-horse candidates to win both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards.</p>
<p id="W34JBw">Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is tied for the seventh-best odds to win the former, per FanDuel, while midseason pickup Cole Ragans—who <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=0&type=8&month=1000&startdate=2023-08-01&enddate=2023-11-01&team=0">led all pitchers</a> in fWAR from August onward—has the eighth-best odds for the latter. This offseason, Witt signed a long-term extension, and Ragans <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39631228/mlb-spring-training-2024-breakout-players-scouts-buzz-jeff-passan">was deemed</a> the “left-handed deGrom.” Who knew 106 losses could feel so good?</p>
<h3 id="bKTLR7">25. Los Angeles Angels</h3>
<p id="M1XtlM">Averaged across 20,000 simulations of the coming season, FanGraphs’ projection system predicts the Angels will win 77.5 games, with a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs. Of course, the Angels never made the playoffs with Ohtani and Mike Trout on the roster together, and over the past three seasons—during which Ohtani won two MVP awards and finished runner-up for a third—they won 77, 73, and 73 games. </p>
<p id="dfePZ6">They can’t possibly win more than 77 or make the postseason with Ohtani now gone, can they? If so, it will be the greatest <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/010509a">Ewing Theory example</a> in years.</p>
<h3 id="j33vGg">26. Pittsburgh Pirates</h3>
<p id="wQOFIG">If all goes well, 2024 could be a monumentally important transition season for Pittsburgh. By the end of the year, health permitting, the Pirates could have the top four hitters and top three pitchers of their future in place: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and 2021 no. 1 pick Henry Davis would occupy the former slots, while Mitch Keller, rookie Jared Jones, and recent no. 1 pick Paul Skenes would claim the latter, giving the Pirates’ penurious owner a cheap, young core to build around for years to come.</p>
<p id="TM1qGf">A lot more would have to go right for Pittsburgh to make the NL Central a true five-team race this season. But the Pirates have a brighter future than several teams with better outlooks in 2024 alone. </p>
<h3 id="oenqNc">27. Oakland Athletics</h3>
<p id="3tybUC">Squint and you’ll see the outline of a not-so-terrible lineup in Oakland this season. (Or in Las Vegas in the future, if <a href="https://twitter.com/FoolishBB/status/1765144568763162983">recent ballpark renderings</a> are any indication.) Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, and Ryan Noda each posted a 123 wRC+ or better last season. Seth Brown, JJ Bleday, and Shea Langeliers all raked in spring training. J.D. Davis—signed this month after the Giants used some contract shenanigans to cut him loose—can always hit.</p>
<p id="oc7exI">The major question about the A’s, of course, is <em>where</em> their field will be in the future, not who will play on it or what will happen there. But owner John Fisher deserves congratulations: After losing 112 games last season, his team is no longer the majors’ worst!</p>
<h3 id="RyWjVJ">28. Washington Nationals</h3>
<p id="w3tMMG">In each of the past three seasons, Patrick Corbin has made at least 30 starts despite posting an ERA north of 5. This fact is notable for two reasons. First, Corbin symbolizes the broader Nationals trajectory over the past five years: tremendous success en route to a World Series triumph, followed by an almost immediately catastrophic collapse. Corbin has allowed by far the most runs in the majors over the past three seasons, but the Nationals keep sending him out every fifth day because they don’t have any better options, and, what the heck, they’re paying him anyway.</p>
<p id="LLj6sD">The second interesting aspect of this streak is that if Corbin extends it, he’d be the first pitcher in MLB history with four seasons in a row of 30-plus starts and an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Only one other pitcher has ever had four such seasons, not in a row: Bobby Witt Sr. So keep an eye out for Patrick Corbin Jr. to contend for an MVP trophy sometime in the late 2040s.</p>
<h3 id="GkveIp">29. Chicago White Sox</h3>
<p id="B1tzZ8">Luis Robert, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/cuban-luis-robert-top-international-prospect-c216971522">once called</a> the “best player on the planet” when he was still a prospect, came closer to that lofty billing last year when he posted a 5-WAR, 38-homer, 20-steal season and eclipsed 100 games for the first time in his career.</p>
<p id="QiEvZZ">And White Sox fans shouldn’t focus on any other part of their team’s roster, as Robert is just about the only remaining draw at Guaranteed Rate Field. Even announcer extraordinaire Jason Benetti has decamped to Detroit.</p>
<h3 id="GiPsv0">30. Colorado Rockies</h3>
<p class="c-end-para" id="4zM2Sl">Say this for the Rockies: They fleeced Cleveland in the Nolan Jones trade. And it’s a good thing they did, because the young outfielder is the only Rockie projected for even 2 WAR—the mark of an average player—this season.</p>
<aside id="PebxtE"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside><p id="229lvo"></p>
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/3/27/24113134/2024-mlb-preseason-power-rankings-braves-dodgers-standingsZach Kram2024-03-21T09:05:06-04:002024-03-21T09:05:06-04:00Breaking Down Wemby’s DPOY Case and the NBA’s Most (and Least) Consistent Stars
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8GHDUBxBC2WTQOIM736VG4O67xk=/167x0:2834x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73222915/KramSession032124_Getty_AP_Ringer.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/AP Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>Plus, are the Lakers and Warriors just destined to meet in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game?</p> <p id="Iom0cn"><em>Each Thursday of the NBA season, we’re analyzing a grab bag of topics from around the league. This week, we’re examining Victor Wembanyama’s defensive impact, the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors’ collision course to the play-in, the NBA’s most and least consistent stars, and more. This is the Kram Session.</em></p>
<h3 id="1jPb51">Under Review: Breaking Down Victor Wembanyama’s DPOY Case</h3>
<p id="hyzooF">Rudy Gobert is the heavy favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. It would be the fourth win of his career, tying him with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most in NBA history, and a welcome change of pace after he spent last season as a narrative punching bag following his lopsided trade to the Timberwolves.</p>
<p id="swqj04">It’s easy to make a case for Gobert in his bounce-back season, as he’s the best defender on the best defensive team in the league. FanDuel odds as of Wednesday give him an 80 percent implied probability to win.</p>
<p id="8n9AIi">Behind Gobert, the second-best odds belong to Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama, at 16 percent; nobody else has better than a 1 percent chance. The main area of separation between the top two candidates is massive and important: Gobert’s team leads the NBA in defensive rating, while Wembanyama’s ranks 23rd. Open and shut, case closed.</p>
<p id="nvNLjy">But should it be? That simple comparison strips out crucial context that surrounds both French centers’ defensive performances. If Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels played in San Antonio, the Spurs defense would rank a lot better. Individual defense <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/5/11/22423517/nba-defense-analytics-nikola-jokic">remains tricky to measure</a>, but Wembanyama has a convincing case to not only become the first rookie since Tim Duncan to make an All-Defensive team, but to win DPOY outright.</p>
<p id="0u4i8g">The first argument in Wembanyama’s favor is that he dominates the defensive box score stats. He leads the league with 3.5 blocks per game (nobody else has more than 2.6) and adds 1.3 steals as well, despite various minutes limits throughout the season. The only other player in the last 15 years to average at least three blocks and one steal per game was Jaren Jackson Jr. last season, when he won DPOY.</p>
<p id="I5WggG">Compared to his competition, Wembanyama’s stocks (steals plus blocks) total stands out even more: He has <em>115 more stocks—66 percent more!</em>—than Gobert does.</p>
<p id="ideELL">Voters long ago realized that although blocks and steals are the main defensive counting stats, they aren’t the be-all, end-all of defensive performance because they apply to such a relatively small percentage of possessions. Since Dwight Howard won his second DPOY honor in 2009-10, voters have given the award to the season’s <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_per_g_yearly.html">blocks champion</a> just once in 13 chances. (That was Jackson last year.) Gobert, ironically, was the blocks champion in 2016-17 but didn’t win DPOY, then won three times in the following seasons when he didn’t lead the league in blocks.</p>
<p id="cULaR2">However, it’s possible that stocks have been viewed as overrated for so long that they’re now <em>underrated</em>. Blocks and steals are incredibly valuable—not only because they stop the opposing team from scoring, but because they catalyze transition opportunities on the other end. This chart, based on an analysis of PBP Stats data, shows just how much steals and blocks improve the offensive possessions that follow:</p>
<div id="6o1z0n"><div data-anthem-component="table:12285491"></div></div>
<p id="YTEWxO">Notably, Wembanyama doesn’t send his blocks flying toward the third row of fans; instead, he snatches shots out of the air and heads in the other direction. The Spurs have recovered 68 percent of Wemby’s 213 blocks, <a href="https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/player?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Type=Player&StatType=Totals&Table=Misc">per PBP Stats</a>. That’s the highest proportion for any player with at least 60 blocks.</p>
<p id="fsBHug">Wembanyama has 66 more recovered blocks than Gobert, per PBP Stats, and 37 more steals, meaning he’s flipped possession into his team’s favor 103 more times—or 81 percent more often!—than the Timberwolves center.</p>
<p id="eqS1Bg">Again, blocks and steals aren’t everything, but Wemby’s case extends to film and a wider range of statistics, too. Gobert and Wembanyama look just about identical in terms of their rim protection metrics. <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defensive-impact?CF=DEF_RIM_FGA*GE*200&PerMode=Totals&dir=A&sort=DEF_RIM_FG_PCT">Opponents have made</a> 52 percent of their attempts at the basket with Gobert as the closest defender, per NBA Advanced Stats, and 53 percent with Wembanyama nearby. Both players rank near the top of the league, and both <a href="https://twitter.com/PaulGarciaNBA/status/1770312065447571895">force opponents to recalibrate</a> how they play around the rim.</p>
<p id="mdGDq3">Another useful measure is on/off data, and Wemby shines even more in this regard. The Spurs’ defensive rating is an astounding 11.5 points lower, per 100 possessions, with Wembanyama on the court versus when he’s off, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s the lowest mark for any player in the league (minimum 1,000 minutes). For comparison, Gobert’s defensive on/off differential is only 4.2 points per 100.</p>
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<p id="kRIGOM">On/off data also isn’t everything because many confounding variables get in the way. For instance, the Lakers aren’t actually a better defensive team without Davis—their opponents have just made a flukishly high percentage of their 3-pointers with Davis on the floor, and a flukishly low percentage with Davis off. And Wembanyama’s on/off differential is likely inflated by his team’s poor backups. (However, his poor backups are also why it’s not entirely fair for his team’s 23rd-place defensive rating to tarnish his DPOY candidacy.)</p>
<p id="tayieP">Advanced metrics combine box score, tracking, and on/off data to bridge the gaps between various forms of measurement. They all show a close competition between the two French centers, at the very least. <a href="https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-application/">LEBRON</a> places Gobert and Wembanyama neck and neck atop the league’s defensive leaderboards: Gobert’s in first place at plus-3.0 points per 100 possessions, while Wemby’s in second at plus-2.9. <a href="https://dunksandthrees.com/epm">Estimated plus-minus</a> actually rates Wembanyama <em>ahead</em> of Gobert, and by a more significant margin (3.3 points per 100, versus 2.6). </p>
<p id="c0YQEk">In summary, Wembanyama has an individual statistical case that’s comparable to Gobert’s, including a huge lead in blocks and steals—the most visible and valuable manifestations of a top defender’s ability. Still, I’m not sure I’d actually choose Wembanyama to win if I had a vote for DPOY. Advanced defensive metrics come with wide error bars (especially when dealing with outlier cases, like Wembanyama’s absurd stock numbers), the disparity in team performance is hard to overcome, and as a final tiebreaker, Gobert has played 20 percent more minutes than Wemby this season.</p>
<p id="WRriru">But Wembanyama shouldn’t be dismissed as a viable candidate to win. He’s improving, too, with a gobsmacking 4.8 blocks and 1.8 steals per game since the All-Star break. And even if he ultimately finishes second in the voting instead of first this season, as long as Wembanyama stays healthy, he could easily set a new individual record with five or more DPOY awards throughout his career.</p>
<p id="PU6q9l">“I know that Rudy has a very good chance of winning it this year, and it would be deserved,” Wembanyama said recently. “Let him win it now, because after that it’s no longer his turn.”</p>
<aside id="6WoFio"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NBA Rookie Rankings: Top 15 of 2023-24","url":"https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rookie-rankings?_ga=2.81059283.559052423.1710759312-1969911477.1706801192"},{"title":"Alperen Sengun’s Injury Hasn’t Grounded the Houston Rockets","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/20/24106631/houston-rockets-jalen-green-alperen-sengun-injury"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="Dtt90k">Zacht of the Week: The Play-In That Was Promised</h3>
<p id="vYXCAQ">The play-in matchup of Adam Silver’s dreams is getting closer: The Lakers have been in ninth or 10th place in the West <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024_standings_by_date_western_conference.html">every day</a> since December 29, while the Warriors have held either position every day since February 10. Both teams are now three losses back of eighth place, and according to <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/odds-machine"><em>The Ringer</em>’s NBA Odds Machine</a>, they now have a <strong>59 percent</strong> chance to meet in the West’s first win-or-go-home game of the 2023-24 postseason.</p>
<p id="zINps8">This matchup didn’t look so probable even just two weeks ago, when the Warriors were just half a game back of the no. 8 seed, the Lakers were 1.5 games back, and the Pelicans, Suns, Kings, and Mavericks all looked catchable. But neither veteran roster has won consistently enough to push into the top eight, and now they’re more likely than not to both stay in the 9-10 range for the season’s last month. The Lakers have a 76 percent chance to finish the regular season in ninth or 10th, the Warriors an 81 percent chance.</p>
<p id="U6olsh">A Lakers vs. Warriors play-in game would add a new entry to the storied LeBron James vs. Steph Curry (and Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Steve Kerr) rivalry. It’s not just the two legends’ four Finals matchups in a row. This would also be the third time in four postseasons that LeBron would face Steph with non-Finals stakes, after they met in the second round last season and in a play-in thriller—which LeBron won with a 3-pointer over Steph in the final minute—in 2021.</p>
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<p id="V095df">The Lakers and Warriors aren’t the only star-studded veteran teams facing immediate win-or-go-home danger, however. This chart shows the West’s most likely 9-10 matchups, per the Odds Machine as of Thursday morning.</p>
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<p id="FmpINq">The Suns are the most likely team to fall back from the top eight because they have a brutal remaining schedule. Here are Phoenix’s last 10 opponents: Pelicans (twice), Timberwolves (twice), Clippers (twice), Nuggets, Thunder, Cavaliers, and Kings.</p>
<p id="etLzfa">On the other end, the Rockets might also sneak up from 11th place, if either the Lakers or Warriors falter. This scenario is unlikely, but the Rockets <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/20/24106631/houston-rockets-jalen-green-alperen-sengun-injury">have won six consecutive games</a>, including the last four without Alperen Sengun.</p>
<p id="GOotaU">But those alternate outcomes are improbable, as Steph and LeBron appear fated to meet in an immediate elimination game, after a season of questions about whether either one would make a run. Maybe such a matchup wouldn’t actually please Silver from a longer-term perspective because he’d be trading gargantuan TV ratings in a single game for potentially lower ratings once the actual playoffs begin, with one of the league’s most popular stars going home early. And the other might go home soon after, too, because the winner of the 9-10 game would still have to beat the 7-8 loser to qualify for the playoff bracket. The last playoffs in which neither LeBron nor Steph appeared came in 2005.</p>
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<h3 id="i0L8H8">
<br>Take That for Data: The NBA’s Most and Least Consistent Stars</h3>
<p id="mtyadX">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander really likes to score 31 points. He averaged 31 per game last season, and he’s on track for 31 per game again this season. It’s not just his averages, either—he’s scored <em>exactly</em> 31 points 13 times this season, shattering the previous high for this niche record. (Oscar Robertson and Charles Barkley each scored 31 points eight times in a season.)</p>
<p id="fhji3p">That performance raises a question: Is Gilgeous-Alexander the most consistent player in the NBA? I can answer that question with an analysis of game score, which is an all-encompassing stat that summarizes a player’s entire box score in one number, on the same “scale” as points scored (so a game score of 30 is great, 20 is good, and so on). </p>
<p id="WFjp9A">I ordered every player’s game log by game score, then split the list down the middle, into a player’s best games (their top half of game scores) and worst games (their bottom half of game scores). Only games with at least 20 minutes played were included. Then I calculated how much a player’s average game score changed from his best to his worst games to see who retained the most production—and, therefore, could be deemed the most consistent across the season.</p>
<p id="ow9f4f">SGA indeed takes the top spot—and he does so by a massive margin, retaining 68.4 percent of his best production in his worst games while nobody else is higher than 60.6 percent. Even on a list populated by stars (and Moe Wagner), the Oklahoma City guard is head and shoulders above the competition. (A more mathematically rigorous measure of consistency—comparing the standard deviation of each player’s individual game scores to the average—yields the same result. We’ll stick to the best vs. worst method for ease of comprehension.)</p>
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<p id="hoNqDx">SGA doesn’t have the highest single-game ceiling among the stars on this list, as his best-game average is below those of Luka, Giannis, Jokic, and Embiid. In a league full of 50- and 60- and 70-point performances, Gilgeous-Alexander has never reached even 45 points in a game.</p>
<p id="O5CjOQ">But SGA has the highest <em>floor</em> of any player except Embiid, who had a much smaller sample before undergoing knee surgery. Gilgeous-Alexander probably won’t win the MVP award, for which Jokic is now a considerable favorite—but this consistency should serve him well as he leads his potentially top-seeded Thunder into the playoffs.</p>
<p id="04LvQI">On the other end of the spectrum, the <em>least</em> consistent players this season are mostly rookies. The bottom five players by this metric (minimum 20 games with at least 20 minutes played) are Scoot Henderson, Gradey Dick, Grant Williams, Anthony Black, and Max Christie. </p>
<p id="PoSPQP">That’s not a particularly illuminating takeaway. So instead, we can look at the least consistent players who average a game score of 20 or higher in their best games, to signify a star-level ceiling. Here are the least consistent <em>good </em>players in the NBA this season:</p>
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<p id="n3YMRs">Some of these players—like White and Russell—show up because they’ve made great strides since October, so they look inconsistent over the whole season. But otherwise, the list is about as expected, full of streaky guards who depend on their jump shots falling to make an impact on a nightly basis.</p>
<h3 id="NO5r1U">A Graph Is Worth a Thousand Words: Please, Someone Check on Josh Hart</h3>
<p id="PCa1Al">Josh Hart secured his fifth triple-double of the season on Monday, as he played all 48 minutes of the Knicks’ win at Golden State. That latter part is unusual in the regular season. Occasionally, players will stay on the court for the entirety of the last game on the schedule. But Hart became the first since Rajon Rondo in 2015 to play all 48 minutes of a regulation, regular-season game that <em>wasn’t</em> the last game in April. (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/kings-motor-past-pistons-101-92/">Thanks to injuries</a> to his Kings teammates at the time, Rondo played all 48 minutes <em>twice in a three-day span</em>.)</p>
<p id="RSEF4n">Since the All-Star break, Hart is leading the NBA with an average of 42.8 minutes per game, and the gap between Hart and second place is as large as the gap between second place and 28th. THIBS!</p>
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<h3 id="fIFnbZ">Fast Breaks</h3>
<p id="jwi4L4">One reason Hart is playing so much is because the Knicks are missing their top two forwards, Julius Randle and OG Anunoby. Practically the whole league seems beaten and bruised at the moment, as injuries mount and rotations stretch in the final push for playoff seeding.</p>
<p id="XKNqUI">We’ve already discussed superstar injuries—like those affecting Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns—a bunch. But in today’s Fast Breaks, let’s examine four X factors whose health could swing their teams’ fortunes over the rest of the season.</p>
<h4 id="9smDKv">1. OG Anunoby, New York Knicks</h4>
<p id="VEAlfO">The Knicks’ biggest midseason trade acquisition faces a grim injury timeline. After dazzling in his initial stint with his new team, Anunoby missed 18 games, returned for three last week, and once again hit the injured list. The issue, <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39762142/knicks-og-anunoby-miss-elbow-flare-up">according</a> to Adrian Wojnarowski, is a “post-surgical flare-up in his right elbow” that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p id="W4VsbO">If Anunoby is out for another extended stretch—or returns and is compromised; for what it’s worth, he shot just 3-for-13 on 3-pointers while playing with his balky elbow last week—his absence will compound the Knicks’ longer-lasting injury problems. It’s still unclear whether Randle or Mitchell Robinson will return this season, leaving the New York frontcourt frightfully thin.</p>
<p id="0jmTNj">Hart and Donte DiVincenzo, who are both 6-foot-4, might play bigger than they stand, but at some point, the Knicks will need more size, to say nothing of more rotation players, period, to avoid exhaustion before the playoffs even begin. At full strength, the Knicks roster is talented enough to make a run in the East and even challenge the conference-leading Celtics—but they won’t be able to mount their best effort if all their best forwards are stuck on the bench.</p>
<h4 id="cUX1dx">2. Tyler Herro, Miami Heat</h4>
<p id="q8l0Yd">How much better does Herro actually make the Heat? <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/8/7/23819588/tyler-herro-ceiling-miami-heat-damian-lillard-trade">The question remains unanswered</a> after Miami stormed to the Finals while Herro was injured last postseason. But the Heat certainly aren’t good enough now, with Herro sidelined since February due to a foot injury.</p>
<p id="CMf14Y">Since their five-game winning streak in late February, the Heat are just 5-6, with four of their wins coming against the lowly Pistons (three times) and Jazz. In that stretch, Miami is 1-5 against playoff-bound opponents, lost to the Wizards, and ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. The return of the team’s second-leading scorer could only help.</p>
<p id="s9syCw">Sure, the Heat are the Heat, and Eastern Conference favorites like the Celtics and Bucks would probably prefer to avoid them early in the playoffs. But Miami—stuck in a tie for seventh place in the East—would surely like to avoid the play-in, too. The Heat finished seventh in the regular season last year, lost the 7 vs. 8 game, and trailed in the final minutes of an elimination game against the Bulls—their miraculous run to the Finals almost ended before it began.</p>
<h4 id="tYRz2K">3. De’Anthony Melton, Philadelphia 76ers</h4>
<p id="CDjLBa">While understandably overshadowed by Embiid, Melton is also beset by injuries. The combo guard went out of the lineup in mid-January, returned for three low-minutes games in late February, and hasn’t played since as he deals with a lingering back issue. Nick Nurse told reporters this week that <a href="https://www.si.com/nba/76ers/news/nick-nurse-concerning-statement-philadelphia-sixers-deanthony-melton-injury">there’s no new update</a> on Melton’s timetable.</p>
<p id="bCb3BR">Melton’s absence hurts a team lacking two-way oomph without Embiid. Melton’s a jack-of-all-trades who almost always <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/meltode01.html#all_pbp-playoffs_pbp">makes his team better</a>: He’s a good shooter, passer, and defender who was still contributing this season even as he slumped to league average from the 3-point line.</p>
<p id="MEGhUK">More importantly, a healthy Melton would provide Philadelphia with additional playmaking next to Tyrese Maxey, who has assumed a tremendous offensive burden without his MVP candidate in the middle. Philadelphia has a minus-5.1 net rating without Embiid, Melton, and Maxey, per Cleaning the Glass—and because Embiid and Melton are both hurt, that essentially means they’re drawing dead every time Maxey goes to the bench.</p>
<p id="u6TMCR">Kyle Lowry is overextended as a lead option at age 37. Cam Payne isn’t the answer. Buddy Hield is a shooter, not a ball handler. Tobias Harris disappears every other game. The 76ers, currently tied for seventh in the East, would benefit from Melton’s presence—but at this point, it’s <em>if</em>, not <em>when</em>, he will return.</p>
<h4 id="5p3IF1">4. Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Clippers</h4>
<p id="GvdqpJ">A year after one of Crypto.com Arena’s teams improved after getting rid of Westbrook, a different Crypto tenant is struggling without him. The Clippers hope that Westbrook will return by the start of the playoffs, after he broke his hand earlier this month, but they’re only 5-5 since his injury, during which time they’ve fallen from 2.5 games back to five games back from the West’s top seed and all but locked themselves into the 4 vs. 5 matchup.</p>
<p id="5a8xZp">Since they started playing without their energizer off the bench, the Clippers rank 28th in pace, versus 20th before. Their offense has suffered without as many quick-hit buckets. Their defense has also collapsed, although it’s trickier to attribute that change to Westbrook’s absence.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="wSAoCn">It’s strange to say this about a reserve who averages only 23 minutes per game and has often been a net negative in recent years, but the Clippers need Westbrook. He provides a different look from the rest of L.A.’s slower, more deliberate veterans, and especially if the Clippers face the younger, more athletic Pelicans in the first round—which looks exceedingly likely—they could use his (literal) change of pace. The Clippers had better hope Westbrook’s injury timeline proceeds as expected.</p>
<p id="hPDTsC"><em>Stats through Tuesday’s games.</em></p>
<aside id="FlqObK"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside>
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/21/24107252/victor-wembanyama-dpoy-defense-lakers-warriors-kram-sessionZach Kram2024-03-20T06:20:00-04:002024-03-20T06:20:00-04:00‘The Three-Body Problem’ Is Brilliant. ‘3 Body Problem’ Is Better.
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<figcaption>Netflix/Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>Netflix’s new sci-fi series from the makers of ‘Game of Thrones’ doesn’t just honor Liu Cixin’s remarkable books—it improves on them</p> <p id="n7bwI5">My favorite quote about science fiction comes from longtime editor Frederik Pohl, who paraphrased Isaac Asimov when he wrote, “Somebody once said that a good science-fiction story should be able to predict not the automobile but the traffic jam.” </p>
<p id="a3Wt6R">In other words, it’s not the piece of technology or scientific advance itself that matters in spinning a sci-fi yarn, but rather the advance’s ramifications for humanity. Anyone can predict that humanity might one day, say, make first contact with aliens. But under what circumstances? And what might that contact say about our place in the universe? And what would those events mean for successive generations?</p>
<p id="d6crsb">In the Three-Body Problem<em> </em>trilogy, Chinese author Liu Cixin constructs the most magnificently intricate, wildly ambitious traffic jam ever imagined. After the series’ first book was translated into English in 2014, Liu became the first Asian winner of the annual Hugo Award for best science-fiction or fantasy novel. His work received praise from the likes of Barack Obama and George R.R. Martin. It was so influential that it even coined a name for an actual scientific theory. (Don’t Google “the dark forest,” the title of the series’ second book, or else you will encounter massive spoilers.)</p>
<p id="KO3Ox7">And now former <em>Game of Thrones</em> showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, along with <em>True Blood</em>’s Alexander Woo, have brought that impeccable cosmic traffic jam to Netflix, in what <em>The New York Times</em> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/arts/television/winter-tv-shows.html">called</a> the “apotheosis of the nerd-tech takeover of our storytelling culture.” All eight episodes of the adaptation’s first season will be released on Thursday, with the streamer hoping to rival the book series’ smash success.</p>
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<p id="jDTiia"><br><em>3 Body Problem</em> (as the show’s title is stylized) is a proper fit for Benioff and Weiss, even though one of their adaptive sagas takes place in a medieval fantasy world and the other is in modern and futuristic sci-fi settings. <em>3 Body Problem</em> is sexless, but in tone, it’s sci-fi’s answer to <em>Thrones</em>’ grimdark sensibilities: In his essay anthology <em>A View From the Stars</em>, which reaches shelves next month, Liu writes that this series was his attempt to “try and imagine the worst universe possible” and that the second book’s title is fitting because “my universe is unbelievably dark.”</p>
<p id="KYfflz">His story exploring this “worst universe possible” is the hardest of hard science fiction, with long passages about orbital mechanics, quantum physics, solar radiation, and the speed of light. Both the books and show open with a dual-timeline story. In one timeline, set in China during the Cultural Revolution, a traumatized young woman finds a home at a mysterious military base; in the other, modern-day law enforcement officers investigate a string of scientist suicides while other characters are invited to play a state-of-the-art virtual reality game.</p>
<p id="gkRKeQ">Such a hard sci-fi story would seem “unadaptable”—but Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series was viewed the same way, once upon a time, before evolving into a creative and cultural darling, a show that simultaneously set records for both <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/tv/story/2019-09-19/emmys-game-of-thrones-winners">Emmy Awards</a> and HBO viewership. Crucially, while <em>Thrones</em> faltered at the finish line as it outran its still-incomplete source material, <em>3 Body Problem </em>won’t face the same challenge, as the ending to Liu’s book series is already written. That difference gives Benioff and Weiss the opportunity to do what they do best: adapt an unadaptable genre story for the masses.</p>
<p id="aUEaP3">They have a “knack … for making what seems like completely inaccessible material totally accessible,” actor John Bradley, who played Samwell Tarly in <em>Thrones</em> and features as a snack-food tycoon in <em>3 Body</em>, said in a press packet provided by Netflix. “I just couldn’t see how they were going to do it, but then as I started to read the scripts, I realized what a magic touch they’ve got in terms of taking this very dense source material and making it into an entertaining mainstream show.”</p>
<aside id="3lSriN"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The ‘3 Body Problem’ Primer","url":"https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/3/19/24105309/3-body-problem-netflix-series-explained-primer-guide-physics"}]}'></div></aside><p id="IIuUbA">Bradley’s right. I’ve seen screeners for the entire season, and I was astonished by its quality; <em>3 Body Problem</em> holds mostly true to the spirit of the source text, preserving its strengths while also shoring up its weaknesses. The book series is remarkable. The Netflix show might be an even better version of the story.</p>
<p id="21IaaS">When I first discovered Liu’s trilogy and tore through all three books, their plots and themes dominated my waking thoughts and dreams for months afterward. I have since read everything Liu has ever written that’s been translated into English. When I joined an online baseball simulation league—my sci-fi fandom is not my only über-nerdy interest—I named my team the Trisolaris Droplets. (If you know, you know.) My wife’s gift to me for our first wedding anniversary (traditionally associated with a “paper” theme) was a gorgeous art book inspired by the series. </p>
<p id="dUrpbf">I offer all these anecdotes to establish my bona fides as a massive fan of the trilogy, so you’ll know I’m speaking in good faith when I admit that it’s also weighed down by several major flaws. The books’ timelines can grow confusing, especially when Liu doubles back to previous events and shares confusing flashbacks. His treatment of romantic subplots—and of some gender dynamics more broadly—is uncomfortable. His characters, most of all, tend to exist as two-dimensional vehicles for ideas rather than as 3D flesh-and-blood creations.</p>
<p id="js0C7g">Fictional stories can draw readers in because of beautiful prose or compelling characters or a riveting plot; rare success stories, like Martin’s ASoIaF, combine all three. But Liu thrives through plot alone. He devotes far more attention to building his ideas and worlds than to building his characters. (This is especially true of a main character in the first book, whom a coworker—who didn’t enjoy her reading experience—called “the most boring man in the world.”)</p>
<p id="Mn5fos">This imbalance is partly a matter of cultural exchange. In <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/liu-cixins-war-of-the-worlds">a <em>New Yorker</em> profile</a> of Liu, Chinese American writer Jiayang Fan wrote of China’s development over the course of Liu’s life, “The scale and the speed of China’s economic transformation were conducive to a fictive mode that concerns itself with the fate of whole societies, planets, and galaxies, and in which individuals are presented as cogs in larger systems.”</p>
<p id="1ZVA3c">Yet the lack of individually compelling characters is also a choice (or a limitation) of Liu’s. He’s a power plant engineer by trade, not a trained writer. As he told Fan for that profile, “I did not begin writing for love of literature. I did so for love of science.” </p>
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<p id="ALVHPA"><br>That inversion wouldn’t work on television, which is, at its heart, a medium driven by character and dialogue. “I started as a playwright, so that’s the only way I know how to write: character first,” Woo said via Netflix. “For a television series, that’s the thing that gives you an emotional attachment to the story and makes you think about it after the credits roll.”</p>
<p id="Yvm284">Part of the creators’ adaptive solution was structural. In Liu’s trilogy, the sequels’ protagonists don’t appear in the first book, and the various main characters don’t know each other before the events of the series.</p>
<p id="FxZF59">So Benioff, Weiss, and Woo decided to pull those later protagonists (under different names) to the start of the first season of TV. They also connected those characters in a manner that might be less realistic—is it actually likely that the most important characters in a world-spanning story would have been friends <em>before</em> the crisis began?—but makes for a more cohesive viewing experience. Audiences love an ensemble.</p>
<p id="BujfuU">“What you gain by making these changes is a greater level of emotional engagement, which is at the heart of any TV show,” Woo said.</p>
<p id="sy7gax">In the case of <em>3 Body</em>, that ensemble consists of five characters whose friendship dates back to their days as physics students at Oxford. The members of the quintet have since branched out into different scientific subfields: Jin (Jess Hong) is a theoretical physicist, Saul (Jovan Adepo) works in a lab, Auggie (Eiza González) applies her education to a job constructing nanomaterials, Jack (Bradley) owns a popular snack-food company, and Will (Alex Sharp) is a schoolteacher.</p>
<p id="pd0fjV">Those characters offer not only more emotional engagement than their book counterparts, but also a greater variety in tone. Jack, for instance, adds welcome humor and sarcasm to an otherwise overly serious show. (Benedict Wong’s Da Shi, an intelligence officer, supplies his fair share of levity, too.)</p>
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<p id="fhUrKk">Altering character presentation is a common tactic for hard sci-fi shows that move from the page to the screen. The <em>Foundation</em> adaptation on Apple TV+ took a similar approach to its ostensibly <a href="https://www.theringer.com/year-in-review/2021/12/22/22849412/the-end-of-unfilmable-ip-dune-foundation-wheel-of-time">unfilmable</a> source material, another dense sci-fi story that emphasizes world-building over character-building. As Asimov’s story skips across time, most characters appear for no more than a few chapters. (Incidentally, Liu directly references <em>Foundation</em> in the second book in his series.)</p>
<p id="CVRAee">The <em>Foundation</em> adaptation introduces cloning and cryogenic procedures to extend its characters’ life spans—and keep its high-profile actors on-screen. “I think the secret sauce for adapting <em>Foundation</em> was really rooting it in emotion,” showrunner David S. Goyer <a href="https://screenrant.com/foundation-show-apple-tv-david-goyer-interview/">said</a> in 2021. “Really rooting it in character.”</p>
<p id="HRDnWr">Elsewhere in the realm of hard sci-fi adaptations, <em>Dune: Part Two</em> condensed its time frame and <a href="https://www.inverse.com/entertainment/dune-2-changes-timeline-time-jump-alia-jon-spahits-interview">cut out the book’s precocious toddler</a>, which would have been trickier to depict on-screen. The<em> Expanse</em> TV show also fiddled with character timelines, including introducing <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmRQXpbeA-0">a fan favorite</a> who doesn’t appear until the second book in the pilot episode. <em>His Dark Materials</em> is more fantasy than sci-fi, but HBO’s adaptation of Philip Pullman’s trilogy employed the same solution in transporting a character who debuts in the second book to the show’s second episode.</p>
<p id="cXhcf8">The <em>Expanse </em>adaptation also added more dialogue and banter in place of a detective character’s mostly internal narration. Daniel Abraham, one of the coauthors and executive producers of the series, told me this change was necessary because “watching the guy sit at home and drink whiskey and think—not great television.”</p>
<p id="YQaoK0">The same rationale shapes the <em>3 Body</em> adaptation. Where in the book one character plays the virtual reality game alone and must think through its problems by himself, the show engages multiple characters in the VR world so that they can collaborate and share their thoughts with both one another and the audience.</p>
<p id="6tHlOJ">One other major change in the <em>3 Body</em> cast, versus its book equivalent, stems from the globalization of a story that originally transpired almost entirely in China. (The sequels spend more time globe-trotting and even traveling beyond our <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g">pale blue dot</a>.) While the first season’s two largest roles went to actors of Chinese descent, other Chinese characters from the book are, in the show, played by white, Black, Pakistani, and Mexican actors. And while flashbacks are still centered in China, much of the present-day action shifts to London instead.</p>
<p id="IHvfFv">According to the creators, Liu gave them his blessing to swap characters’ races and genders, and the cast and creators have stressed repeatedly that these changes were intended to tell a better global story, not to whitewash an inherently Chinese tale.</p>
<p id="AG3HUH">“We wanted to represent, as much as possible, all of humanity,” Benioff said, per Netflix. “We wanted people from all over the world. We tried to make this a very diverse, international cast to represent the idea that this isn’t just one country’s struggle against the threat of aliens; it’s a global struggle to survive.”</p>
<p id="tkCEpR">Some viewers may rebel against these changes, but cast members quoted in Netflix’s press materials applauded the resulting opportunities for greater representation. Switching a scientist character from a Chinese man to a Latina woman, said González, “allowed me to be a bit more subversive in this take on a scientist. I feel like we have a very specific idea when it comes to doctors or scientists that’s very sterile and clean-cut. Being a woman from Latin America, I really wanted to create a role that reflected a Latin American woman in a different, more beautiful light.”</p>
<p id="OOejO4">Not all of <em>3 Body</em>’s adaptive changes can compensate for the source material’s relative weaknesses. To return to the <em>Thrones</em> comparison, none of <em>3 Body</em>’s characters are as rich or complex as Tyrion Lannister, Arya Stark, or many of Martin’s other creations. Nor does <em>3 Body</em>’s dialogue crackle like <em>Thrones</em>’ at its best.</p>
<p id="3kN3Ep">But elements of production design—such as props, costumes, effects, and score—unique to the screen elevate other aspects beyond the capabilities of plain words on a page. </p>
<p id="uMFnQC">“The thing that’s amazing about filmed entertainment,” <em>The Expanse</em>’s Abraham said, “is it has a musical score, and there’s this whole layer of emotional evocation that you just get for free. It’s amazing. It’s a powerful tool. If you could do that in a book, it would be astounding.”</p>
<p id="If2fre">In addition to reconvening <em>Thrones</em> actors like Bradley, Liam Cunningham (Davos Seaworth), and Jonathan Pryce (the High Sparrow), <em>3 Body</em> calls on many of the below-the-line standouts who shaped <em>Thrones</em>’ look, sound, and feel, including composer Ramin Djawadi, who’s back with a delightful soundtrack for the new show. <em>Thrones</em> and <em>3 Body</em> visual effects producer Steve Kullback said via Netflix that “the level of complexity of the visual effects is similar, in many ways, to some of the things we did on <em>Game of Thrones</em>.”</p>
<p id="GcYjWP">This series looks expensive, and it feels all the more immersive for its attention to portraying an entire world. <em>3 Body</em> expands even beyond <em>Thrones</em>’ great sprawl, leaping, in the VR world, from ancient China to Tudor England to 13th-century Mongolia to 16th-century Italy and, in the real world, from England to Panama to Switzerland to Florida.</p>
<p id="bvB3fB">The effects work carries over to the show’s infrequent action scenes. A midseason sequence on an oil tanker, which transforms a one-page event into a jaw-dropping visual spectacle, is one of the best set pieces Benioff and Weiss have ever produced. It’s not quite <a href="https://thrones.theringer.com/">Hardhome or the Red Wedding</a>, but it’s not far behind. (<em>3 Body</em>’s actual version of the Red Wedding would come in Season 2, if the show is renewed.)</p>
<p id="0xEbWY">This action is played up in part because, as my colleague Justin Charity <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/3/19/24105309/3-body-problem-netflix-series-explained-primer-guide-physics">wrote</a>, both the books and show are “sci-fi thrillers, but the books put the emphasis on <em>sci-fi</em> where the show puts the emphasis on <em>thriller</em>.” This streamlining mostly works. The most confusing part of the first book—and, in my opinion, the entire series—unfolds over 25 dense pages, as Liu details the construction of a new piece of advanced technology that makes use of extra dimensions. On the screen, however, <em>3 Body</em> condenses this sequence via a quick summary before moving on—again, focusing more on the traffic jam than the automobile itself.</p>
<p id="fDprJL">Still, cutting down on the science nerdery in the interest of broader viewer comprehension means that, for some fans, the books’ appeal will be lost in translation. I couldn’t help but wish that other missing parts had been included in the adaptation: a scene that uses a billiard table as a metaphor for a particle accelerator; Liu’s deeper exploration of the VR game, which allows the reader to try to untangle its collection of mysteries along with the characters instead of just watching them solve it; more details about the ingenious “human computer” in VR, which looks cool but isn’t really explained on-screen.</p>
<p id="U8cLla">For viewers who want more <em>sci-fi</em> in their sci-fi thriller, or frankly more <em>sci</em> in their sci-fi, a competing Chinese-language adaptation aired in 2023 and is now streaming on Peacock. This version of the story, produced by the Chinese conglomerate Tencent, is almost unflinchingly faithful to the book, as it stretches over 30 episodes and thus has much more room to delve into all of the novel’s scientific minutiae. Tencent’s series is not <em>entirely</em> faithful, however: It <a href="https://bleedingcool.com/tv/the-three-body-problem-episode-6-watered-down-by-censorship-review/">elides the integral aspects</a> of Chinese history that influence characters and catalyze the plot. </p>
<p id="f6Dxx5">When drafting his book, Liu front-loaded scenes showing the brutality of the Cultural Revolution, but as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/magazine/ken-liu-three-body-problem-chinese-science-fiction.html">a <em>New York Times</em> piece explained</a>, his “Chinese publisher worried that the opening scenes were too politically charged and would never make it past government censors, so they were placed later in the narrative, he says, to make them less conspicuous. Liu reluctantly agreed to the change, but felt the novel was diminished.” Now, Liu recommends that bilingual readers choose the English translation of his book—which returned those chapters to the front of the novel—instead of the Chinese version.</p>
<p id="CIvect">The same dynamic apparently played out in the dueling adaptations. The Tencent adaptation downplays these scenes, while the Netflix show—just like the English translation of the book—opens with them, as a physics professor faces opprobrium from a mob because of his beliefs about science and religion.</p>
<p id="4vMQKZ">Liu himself is an atheist, but he still believes it’s his role to inspire a spiritual response in his readers. In one of his essays in <em>A View From the Stars</em>, he writes, “The religious feeling of science fiction is a deep sense of awe at the great mysteries of the universe.”</p>
<p id="RQfAc7">The show captures that same sense of wonder and reflects it back to the audience from the start. At the end of the first episode, when the stars in the night sky behave in an unusual way, the hair on my arms stood up, just as it had when I discovered the great mysteries in the book.</p>
<p id="z4pCVv">“We want to do justice to the books and create a show that makes people feel the way the books made us feel,” Benioff said. “And the best way to do that is not to just schematically take things from the book and put them on-screen in the order and manner in which they appear in the books.”</p>
<p id="EQ8V1K">Those more holistic changes alter character and story structure but not Liu’s propulsive plot or, most of all, the way his books made so many readers feel. With the aid of TV-friendly tweaks and Netflix’s massive reach, the <em>3 Body</em> adaptation has the opportunity to fill even more audience members with that deep sense of awe.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="XroBhD">“A lot of people who said, ‘I don’t like fantasy’ became big fans of <em>Game of Thrones</em>,” Benioff added. “And our hope is that we’ll get a lot of people who normally are not into science fiction to love <em>3 Body Problem</em>.”</p>
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https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/3/20/24106432/netflix-3-body-problem-adaptation-liu-cixin-benioff-weiss-sci-fiZach Kram2024-03-14T09:22:21-04:002024-03-14T09:22:21-04:00Kram Session: The Mercurial Mavs and the Reasons NBA Scoring Is Down
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<p>Can the NBA’s streakiest team find stability before the playoffs? Plus, quantifying Anthony Edwards’s astronomical usage, explaining the league’s offensive downturn, and more.</p> <p id="JcUSnh"><em>Each Thursday of the NBA season, we’re analyzing a grab bag of topics from around the league. This week, we’re taking the temperature of the hot-and-cold Dallas Mavericks, highlighting Anthony Edwards’s ridiculous volume, and trying to understand what’s causing NBA offenses to slow down. This is the Kram Session.</em></p>
<h3 id="jaT7tl">Under Review: Can the Dallas Mavericks Find Stability?</h3>
<p id="FBvIEy">The Mavs might be the streakiest team in the NBA. Just look at their performance since early February. They won seven games in a row, during which time they traded for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington to upgrade their frontcourt rotation—a combination of trend and transaction that had some analysts wondering whether they were a Finals candidate.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Have the Dallas Mavericks emerged as an NBA Finals contender? <a href="https://t.co/jyD4Yv0k5y">pic.twitter.com/jyD4Yv0k5y</a></p>— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinOConnorNBA/status/1761474017318609211?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 24, 2024</a>
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<p id="WYGB24">Yet they responded to that speculation with a stumble, going 1-5 in a stretch against Eastern Conference opponents in which they allowed at least 120 points in every game. Then they swerved again, with a four-game winning streak entering Thursday’s national TV game against the Thunder.</p>
<p id="b0y3lz">The Mavericks should be better than this. Luka Doncic (who might have <a href="https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1768115736386417037">injured his hamstring</a> on Wednesday) is an MVP candidate en route to a scoring title, and the team has traded almost all its future first-round picks to surround him with talent. Moreover, the Mavericks <em>need</em> to be better than this after missing the play-in—not just the playoffs, but the play-in—rounds last season. But after beating the Steph Curry–less Warriors on Wednesday, they sit in eighth place in the West, half a game back of sixth and an automatic playoff berth.</p>
<p id="kfCVCb">Yet Dallas can’t help but tantalize. When the Mavericks are clicking, they look <em>fantastic</em>, with a sixth-ranked offense that can bury opponents in a hurry.</p>
<p id="HV0xH5">The addition of Gafford in particular means the Mavericks can fill all 48 minutes with a high-motor, bouncy big man on the court; both Gafford—who has now made 33 shots in a row over his past five games—and rookie Dereck Lively II are happy to fill their offensive possessions with picks, dunks, and little else. In a blowout win in Chicago on Monday, the two centers combined for 42 points on 20-for-21 shooting: 22 from Lively and 20 from Gafford. (The only miss came from Lively, who immediately grabbed his own offensive rebound and scored a putback layup.)</p>
<p id="5WmKhL">“I have never seen that before, where you have two centers dominate like that,” coach Jason Kidd said after the game.</p>
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<p id="tVBzzj">Gafford and Lively give Dallas an athleticism advantage over most opponents, which manifests not only in half-court pick-and-rolls but in transition as well. “I like to turn the game into a track meet,” Lively said. “Because I can’t outmuscle anybody, y’all know that. So I can definitely get around people, I can outrun them, and I’ve got to be able to use my stamina and energy to try to get up and down as many times as I can.” </p>
<p id="rENBGt">Dallas’s rookie center sprinted out for a few easy dunks on Monday, but his eagerness to run also benefits the rest of the roster. When Lively or Gafford fills the lane early in the shot clock, it forces defenses to collapse into the paint, leaving their teammates open for 3s.</p>
<p id="RnUZ19">Dallas ranks sixth in the NBA in fast-break points, after ranking 29th and 28th in the past two seasons. The 2023-24 team is scoring an extra five to six points per game on the break compared to its prior output. Dallas is also ninth in pace, after ranking 28th and 30th in the past two seasons.</p>
<p id="cBIvnN">This roster has better stylistic balance than in previous seasons with Luka at the helm. “Luka plays slow, but everyone else plays fast,” Lively summarized.</p>
<p id="ngzygd">The slower half-court action remains, of course, the offense’s bread and butter, as Luka is perhaps the league’s preeminent pick-and-roll maestro. Doncic scores 12.2 points per game as a pick-and-roll ball handler, <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ball-handler?dir=D&sort=PTS">per Synergy</a>, the highest mark in the league, and ranks in the 92nd percentile in efficiency on the play type.</p>
<p id="bdl9Er">After their standout showing in Chicago, reporters asked both Lively and Gafford how they might defend a Doncic pick-and-roll. “I try to stop it in practice, but I can’t, so I can’t give you an answer on that one,” Lively said.</p>
<p id="v1qBqm">Gafford added, with a laugh, “Just pray. That’s pretty much how it was every time I played against him.”</p>
<p id="8upuo3">The problem is that sometimes, the Mavericks might as well be praying on defense, too. When it looks bad in Dallas, it looks <em>terrible</em>.</p>
<p id="AU6ZB0">The Mavericks rank 21st in defensive rating over the full season—the only team with a winning record behind them is the Pacers—and a putrid 28th since the All-Star break. Some of that recent downturn is the result of <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-shots-general?SeasonSegment=Post%20All-Star&dir=D&sort=FG3_PCT">flukish opponent shooting</a>, but the Mavericks are still moving in the wrong direction.</p>
<aside id="cOKyFd"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Zion Is Looking More Like Zion. And the Pelicans Are Looking More Like Contenders. ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/13/24099561/zion-williamson-new-orleans-pelicans-nba-playoffs"}]}'></div></aside><p id="cuDVJ2">This isn’t a new problem, either: The Mavericks have had a top-15 defense just once in six seasons with Doncic on the roster, and not coincidentally, that was the year they reached the conference finals.</p>
<p id="IxyHYN">Doncic isn’t as disastrous a defender as some other lead guards—his size inoculates him against the very worst outcomes—but his engagement comes and goes on that end. And Kyrie Irving is a below-average defender as well, meaning Dallas’s defense is built on a shaky foundation. Gafford and Lively can both block shots, but neither is the sort of anchor or deterrent at the rim who can compensate for lousy perimeter play. The Mavericks allow the most points per possession <a href="https://theathletic.com/5319642/2024/03/06/mavericks-record-jason-kidd-standings/">when playing drop coverage</a>.</p>
<p id="apWKqs">Sixty-plus games into the season, the Mavericks are still trying to work out the optimal lineup combinations next to their stars. Kidd recently shuffled his starting five, and he’s talked since the trade deadline about his roster’s newfound depth, as Dallas has a legitimate 10-man rotation now:</p>
<ul>
<li id="uvBpwY">Guards: Doncic, Irving, Dante Exum</li>
<li id="jY7Myc">Forwards: Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Tim Hardaway Jr.</li>
<li id="P0JWLj">Centers: Gafford, Lively</li>
</ul>
<p id="Meprm8">In a vacuum, depth is valuable; it means a team can better adjust to injuries and mix and match based on opponent weaknesses. But depth becomes less important in the playoffs. And when it comes to the players behind Doncic and Irving specifically, Dallas has a quality, not quantity, issue.</p>
<p id="sTYZsQ">Luka and Kyrie are the only Mavericks who place in <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/"><em>The Ringer</em>’s Top 100 NBA Player Rankings</a>. The Kings are the only other Western Conference playoff contender with so few top-100 players. (It’s not just us; the DARKO projection system doesn’t count any Mavericks beyond Luka and Kyrie as top-100 players either.)</p>
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<p id="5nggmg">So while Dallas is flush with <em>decent</em> players, it lacks <em>great </em>ones relative to the best teams in the conference. Coaches like Mike Malone in Denver and Tyronn Lue in Los Angeles know how their rotations should look, while Kidd is still trying to figure out his. </p>
<p id="NLsUuu">The Mavericks are talented enough to upset anyone in a playoff series. (It’s worth a reminder that Doncic is one of the greatest statistical playoff performers ever, at 33 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists per game.) But three upsets in a row, which is what they’d need to reach the Finals, with this defense and supporting cast? They just aren’t consistent enough to make such a run seem realistic.</p>
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<h3 id="BfUW2M">
<br>Zacht of the Week: 28.5 Field Goal Attempts per Game</h3>
<p id="tFLTMT">On our Top 100 NBA Player Rankings list, <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/">which we updated this week</a>, Anthony Edwards sits at 17th overall, in the middle of a large cluster of guards. Right ahead of Edwards are Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, and Jalen Brunson; right behind him are Jamal Murray and De’Aaron Fox.</p>
<p id="nmFEFD"><em>Ringer</em> staffers met to finalize the updated order on the same day that we learned <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/8/24094230/karl-anthony-towns-meniscus-injury-minnesota-timberwolves">Karl-Anthony Towns had torn his meniscus</a>, and I noted that by next month’s update, Edwards will have either vaulted to the top of that guard tier or fallen to its bottom. The next few weeks without KAT will say a lot about Edwards—not about his potential as a two-way star, which is immense, but rather about his present ability to lead a title contender, which is the mark of a top-10 player.</p>
<p id="QVG4tL">Edwards’s first week without KAT offered a microcosm of both his ceiling and floor as a no. 1 option without much scoring behind him. In the first game, he exploded for 44 points and a game-winning block at (above?) the rim while producing one of the <a href="https://twitter.com/dan_olinger/status/1765931706152788169">greatest individual highlight reels</a> of the season. In the next two games, both losses, Edwards scored a <em>combined</em> 44 points on 50 shots. And in the fourth game, he scored 37 while leading the Timberwolves to a crucial win over the Clippers.</p>
<p id="Dzqv94">Amid that inconsistency, one common theme was Edwards’s volume. He attempted 114 total field goals over those four games; until this most recent stretch, Edwards had never exceeded 100 shots in any four-game span of his career.</p>
<p id="gOBJFQ">On average, that total comes out to 28.5 shots per game. For context, no player has averaged even 25 attempts per game over a full season since Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson did so in 2005-06; no player has reached 28 per game since Pete Maravich in 1976-77. </p>
<p id="1CeRf5">Without Towns to share the load, Edwards has upped his usage rate while also playing more: He’s averaged 39.3 minutes per game over this stretch (versus 34.9 per game before) because coach Chris Finch simply can’t afford to leave his only remaining scorer on the bench for long. Minnesota’s offensive rating is a ghastly 106.7 with both Edwards and Towns off the floor this season, per Cleaning the Glass.</p>
<p id="nwf9CK">Edwards has had his ups and downs with this burden, but it’s important not to overanalyze shooting splits in such a small sample. For instance, Edwards certainly won’t keep making just 23 percent of his 3-pointers, as he has in the past four games—though the <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/anthony-edwards-must-save-the-timberwolves-season-but-he-doesnt-have-much-time-152317982.html">traffic he’s facing</a> on drives to the rim may well remain.</p>
<p id="lwRW4C">Opposing defenses feel free to steer their coverage toward Edwards, because—like Finch—they know he’s Minnesota’s only real option now. Here is every player who appeared for the Wolves before garbage time on Tuesday, ordered by usage rate; remember that the league average is 20 percent:</p>
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<p id="zMAfMA">Naz Reid is Edwards’s only teammate who comes close to an average usage rate because Minnesota is so accustomed to playing through Edwards and Towns. The next few weeks will reveal whether the Edwards-alone offense, and Edwards’s hefty volume within it, is remotely sustainable, as the Timberwolves both push for the West’s no. 1 seed and potentially enter the playoffs without their 7-foot shooter.</p>
<h3 id="oKrQo9">Take That for Data: What Explains the NBA’s Offensive Downturn? It’s Not Just Fouls.</h3>
<p id="z0iaA5">The big question of the week, as postulated by <a href="https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2024/3/11/24096953/nbas-20-year-shift-a-sneaky-rule-change-lebrons-next-deal-and-so-long-mac-jones-with-ryen-russillo">Bill Simmons</a>, <a href="https://www.tomthefinder.com/p/nba-scoring-is-crashing-why">Tom Haberstroh</a>, and others, is simple: Where have all the points gone? Through Tuesday’s games, teams are collectively scoring four fewer points per game after the All-Star break than they were before it, down from 115 to 111. After a spate of 60- and 70-point efforts, no individual player has scored more than 46 in a game in the past month. Earlier this week, the Knicks and 76ers played the first game in eight years in which neither team cracked 80 points.</p>
<p id="FxVlUw">So what’s going on? The immediate answer also seems simple: Referees are calling fewer fouls, even if <a href="https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274974/NBA-Claims-No-Directive-Given-For-Referees-To-Call-Game-Differently">the NBA contends</a> it gave no instructions to start calling the game differently. As Sravan Pannala showed on Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/SravanNBA/status/1767606753813041373">fouls of all types have fallen</a> in recent weeks—offensive and defensive, shooting and non-shooting. (Pannala also noted that the downturn in both scoring and free throws began <a href="https://twitter.com/SravanNBA/status/1765548437502853625">at the end of January</a>, a couple of weeks before the All-Star break, but we’ll use that latter point as an easy dividing line.)</p>
<p id="5RD7Dh">Let’s dive into the numbers. Since the All-Star break, referees have called 1.65 fewer fouls per 100 possessions, according to an analysis of PBP Stats data. Not all of those fouls lead to free throws, but that comes out to about 2.5 fewer free throw attempts, or 2.1 fewer points, per 100 possessions.</p>
<p id="lxluDy">So if fewer foul calls account for 2.1 of the 4.0 “missing” points, where does the remaining 1.9-point gap come from?</p>
<p id="E39nkW">Shot distribution has remained basically the same since the break. Shot accuracy is mostly the same, too, albeit with a slight drop-off in finishing from floater range (perhaps because of fewer foul calls in that area). Star absences might play a role; led by those Joel Embiid–less 76ers and injury-ravaged Knicks, the 10 teams that have lost the most offense since the break have generally suffered from injuries to stars:</p>
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<p id="JobqbZ">But a less discussed and larger reason for further scoring decline is a shocking downturn in pace. Since the All-Star break, teams are averaging 98.05 possessions per 48 minutes, according to an analysis of NBA Advanced Stats data. If that holds, it would be the slowest second-half pace since 2016-17, which is roughly when the pace-and-space era began.</p>
<p id="p1onB3">In the first half, for comparison, the leaguewide pace was 99.71 possessions per 48 minutes, which is in line with recent seasons. The drop-off of 1.66 possessions per game is more than three times larger than any other pre- to post-break drop in the past decade.</p>
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<p id="fPerdP">On the surface, this massive drop-off seems strange. If anything, pace typically <em>rises</em> in the first three weeks after the All-Star break, likely because players are refreshed by the time off.</p>
<p id="La8qZD">But the broader context of the past few weeks provides reasonable hypotheses for why games have slowed down so drastically. Fewer whistles should mean longer possessions, and they would allow teams to play better defense, which would also extend possessions. Fewer foul calls could further mean less rest during stoppages for players, which would limit their energy to fly up and down the floor so many plays in a row.</p>
<p id="yO7uBr">The current math checks out, too: 1.66 fewer possessions multiplied by 1.15 points per possession (the average leaguewide offensive efficiency) comes out to 1.9 fewer points per game—the entirety of the remaining scoring gap referenced above.</p>
<p id="WoBCmC">In summary: Teams have lost four points per game since the All-Star break, and fewer free throws and a slower pace account for all of it. This dynamic shows the ripple effects of fewer whistles and more defensive physicality: Officiating, fouls, defense, pace, and scoring are all intertwined.</p>
<p id="Di5sQN">It’s useful to step back and think about what these changes mean for spectators’ experiences watching an NBA game. These aren’t massive upheavals. After all, the 114.2 leaguewide offensive rating since the All-Star break, per CtG, would still be the second highest in NBA history over a full season (behind only last season’s mark). And the difference in pre- and post-break foul calls is only 1.65 fewer fouls per 100 possessions. Spread out across an entire game, that’s not a major difference—that’s less than one “missing” foul per quarter.</p>
<p id="zfhpsV">But if those 1.65 fouls are the ones that <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/12/28/24017027/free-throw-parade-nba-officials-steve-kerr-fact-check">generate the most outrage</a> and the most slowed-down, zoomed-in Zapruder footage online, then maybe the league has arrived at a healthy medium. Teams are still scoring a lot, but they might have to work just a little bit harder to generate all those points.</p>
<h3 id="x3ADG1">Fast Breaks</h3>
<h4 id="ZTHNSh">1. Should the Kings be taken more seriously?</h4>
<p id="JBGvoH">The Kings aren’t as good as they were last season, when they took the West by surprise en route to 48 wins and a third-place finish. The defense is still lacking, the league-leading offense has dropped to eighth in efficiency, and the team ranks just ninth in the West in point differential (albeit tied for sixth in record). </p>
<p id="FN6FH9">Yet there’s a funny thing about this Kings team: They’ve held serve against every possible playoff opponent this season, with the exception of the Clippers and New Orleans, the latter of which is also in the bottom half of the playoff field and thus incredibly unlikely to face Sacramento in the play-in or the first round.</p>
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<p id="9LqTTE">After completing a season sweep of the Lakers on Wednesday, the Kings are now 18-9 against non-Pelican contenders in the West, including a winning record over each of the conference’s top three teams. Will that regular-season performance mean anything in the playoffs? Probably not—it’s not like anyone would expect the Kings to beat the Nuggets just because they won the regular-season series against the defending champs. (Jamal Murray missed two of Sacramento’s wins, but Nikola Jokic played in all four games between the teams.)</p>
<p id="myZ38T">But for months now, the Kings have profiled as one of the West’s weakest postseason squads. Maybe it’s not quite that simple.</p>
<h4 id="X412Yz">2. The NBA’s most interesting tank-related subplot is in Toronto.</h4>
<p id="Bi89rh">The NBA’s longest losing streak doesn’t belong to the Wizards (who recently won two in a row!) or the Pistons (three of four!). It’s the Raptors’ burden to bear, as Toronto’s dropped five consecutive games, including one in Detroit on Wednesday.</p>
<p id="e7PniY">Despite strong point guard play from Immanuel Quickley, Toronto is now 1-6 since Scottie Barnes’s hand injury (counting the game he left early)—which sets the scene for the most extreme tanking scenario of the season’s final month. </p>
<p id="TzQvqi">Toronto owes a top-six-protected pick to the Spurs, from last season’s ill-timed Jakob Poeltl trade. The Raptors leave Wednesday’s loss just half a game better than Memphis for the no. 6 spot in the lottery order. Portland, at fifth, is 3.5 games worse than Toronto, and thus all but uncatchable, so the Raptors’ odds of keeping their pick boil down to:</p>
<blockquote><p id="lQySAX"><strong>Catch Memphis for the no. 6 lottery spot: 46 percent chance to keep pick</strong><br><strong>Don’t catch Memphis, stay in the no. 7 spot: 32 percent chance to keep pick</strong></p></blockquote>
<p id="FYf5RI">On the one hand, a 14 percentage point difference isn’t all that much—thanks to the flattened lottery odds, there’s a good chance that one of the lower-seeded lottery teams will jump into the top four, thereby pushing the team in the no. 6 spot down to seventh or worse. On the other hand, we’ve seen teams tank entire seasons for a 14 percent chance at something valuable (the no. 1 pick), so why would Toronto not take advantage of Barnes’s absence to try to boost its odds of keeping a mid-lottery selection?</p>
<h4 id="1nTnoi">3. Jamahl Mosley is working his Magic in Orlando.</h4>
<p id="gIkzri">The Magic announced an extension with Jamahl Mosley this week, which will keep the head coach in Orlando through the 2027-28 season. It’s a well-deserved deal: Despite working with the NBA’s <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html#advanced-team::2">fourth-youngest roster</a> and almost no point guard to speak of, Mosley has the Magic in position to nab a top-five seed in the East.</p>
<p id="chHwNN">When I saw the extension news, I thought back to <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/11/22/23971950/milwaukee-bucks-defense-in-season-tournament-2023-orlando-magic-kram-session">something Mosley told me</a> at a press conference in November, when he downplayed the team’s persistent shooting woes. “The one thing that we’ve talked about is: What is our superpower, and what are we capable of doing?” he said. “And that’s our ability to get to the rim, our ability to get to the free throw line, and defense.”</p>
<p id="WS6DKD">From the beginning of the season to near its end, those superpowers remain super. The Magic rank first by a mile in their percentage of shots at the rim, according to CtG. (The distance between first place and second place is the same as the distance between second place and <em>17th place</em>.) They rank first in <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html#advanced-team::14">free throw rate</a>. And they rank fourth in defensive efficiency despite the roster’s inexperience.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="eJh0wT">Mosley gets the most out of his players, and he has the right temperament and teaching style to connect with his young team. Perhaps next season, after a summer in which they have lots of cap space, the Magic will see how Mosley can integrate an actual scoring guard into the fold.</p>
<aside id="fDLS0D"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside>
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/14/24100106/dallas-mavericks-anthony-edwards-nba-offense-fouls-pace-kram-sessionZach Kram2024-03-07T09:30:25-05:002024-03-07T09:30:25-05:00Kram Session: Eight Takeaways From Our NBA Playoff Projections
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<p>Our playoff projections signal the story lines and races to follow the rest of the way. Plus, we highlight the reemergence of iso ball, another long losing streak, and four players to watch down the stretch.</p> <p id="eGPGyB"><em>Each Thursday of the NBA season, we’re analyzing a grab bag of topics from around the league. This week, we examine the most notable findings from our </em><a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/odds-machine%5C"><em>just-launched Odds Machine</em></a><em>. Then, we highlight yet another long losing streak, the reemergence of iso ball, and four players to watch down the stretch. This is the Kram Session.</em></p>
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<h3 id="domDJj">Under Review: Eight Takeaways From Our NBA Playoff Projections</h3>
<p id="Uw3Rp9"><em>The Ringer</em> launched our annual Playoff Odds Machine on Thursday. This tool uses teams’ point differentials, plus contextual factors like injuries and strength of schedule, to predict every remaining game this season. This allows us to project final standings, playoff matchups, lottery order, and more. Check out the whole collection of data <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/odds-machine">here</a>, but for now, here are eight initial takeaways with six weeks left in the regular season:</p>
<p id="zzah08"><strong>1. The Celtics are overwhelming title favorites: </strong>The Odds Machine gives Boston a 42 percent chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy this spring, with nobody else higher than 16 percent.</p>
<p id="gDlN80">We’re not alone in this assessment. Basketball Reference’s <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html">model</a> gives the Celtics a 61 percent chance to win the title. <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/playoffs/sort/playoffs.probwintitle/dir/desc">ESPN’s</a> says 46 percent. Neil Paine’s stats-based <a href="https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-messengers-2023-24-nba-forecast">forecast</a>—which adapts the old <em>FiveThirtyEight</em> model—settles at 39 percent. In all three of those models, like our Odds Machine, the second-most likely champion is only in the low to mid-teens in its championship percentage.</p>
<p id="K9uuM7">It isn’t a surprise that Boston is the favorite. At 48-13, the Celtics have the NBA’s best record by 5.5 games, and they have the best net rating by 3.7 points per 100 possessions. (The second-place Thunder are closer to seventh place than they are to first.) The Celtics rank first in offensive rating and second on defense. And they boast the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule, meaning their statistical benchmarks are likely to remain this stellar through the end of the regular season.</p>
<p id="o8d0lG">It might be a surprise, however, that Boston is such a <em>large</em> favorite. But the Celtics have the fifth-best point differential for any team in NBA history. Based on precedent, a team with their statistical résumé should actually be even heavier favorites to win the championship than the models say.</p>
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<p id="Ee7Ot0">Eight of the 12 previous teams to finish a season with a double-digit average point differential won the title. And the next three teams just below double digits—the 1967 76ers, 1986 Celtics, and 1987 Lakers—all won the title, too.</p>
<p id="48zj19">Still, based on the history of the Jayson Tatum–Jaylen Brown era of Celtics basketball and its playoff disappointments, there is some reason to look askance at their title chances. (It’s worth noting, however, that even after their fourth-quarter collapse against the Mighty Dean Wades on Tuesday, the Celtics are 18-9 with a plus-20 net rating in clutch situations this season.) But public models and Vegas odds agree: Boston is the clear favorite, thanks to its historically strong season to date.</p>
<p id="OihnZq"><strong>2. The Nuggets are better than advanced models give them credit for:</strong> Denver, which plays Boston in a potential Finals preview Thursday, checks in at just 4 percent to win the title, per the Odds Machine. I’d certainly take the over on those odds, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-finals/2023/6/13/23758922/2023-nba-champions-denver-nuggets-nikola-jokic-finals-mvp">after predicting</a> they’d win more than just a single title after their triumph last summer.</p>
<p id="e8UJ0O">The issue is that Denver faces much fiercer competition than it did a year ago (and that Boston will in the East) due to the West’s superior depth. Denver ranks only <em>fifth</em> in the West in point differential this season, after placing first among healthy teams—and second overall—a year ago. Granted, the Nuggets are probably coasting a bit this season, as defending champs are wont to do, but they coasted to the end of last season too, and that didn’t harm their numbers relative to those of their rivals.</p>
<p id="DCuLeT">Increased competition in the West should force Denver to traverse a trickier path to the Finals than it had a season ago. The Odds Machine thinks that Denver’s most likely first-round opponents are the Pelicans or Suns; the Nuggets would be favored against those teams, but they wouldn’t be easy knockouts. The 2023-24 Nuggets are also less likely to win home-court advantage, from which they benefited greatly a year ago.</p>
<aside id="Q6YtWP"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Oh God. Is This the Boston Celtics’ Year?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/4/24090303/boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-winning-streak"},{"title":"Can Draymond Green Find Peace?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/5/24089755/draymond-green-golden-state-warriors-suspensions"},{"title":"Grading Every NBA Team’s 2023-24 Season So Far","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/26/24080028/nba-season-grades-lakers-celtics-knicks-warriors"}]}'></div></aside><p id="s136CA"><strong>3. Speaking of the race for the West’s no. 1 seed:</strong> A game back from the West’s top spot through Wednesday’s games, the Nuggets have only a 10 percent chance to finish no. 1 again. Ahead of them are the Timberwolves (44 percent) and Thunder (43 percent), with the Clippers’ recent swoon all but taking them out of the running for the top seed (3 percent).</p>
<p id="WFrB9G">The Timberwolves and Thunder actually project to finish with the same record, 56-26, but Minnesota has the tiniest edge for now because it’s likely to end the season with the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City. (The Timberwolves and Thunder split their season series, 2-2, but Minnesota has better divisional and conference records.)</p>
<p id="Heo6sJ">Both of those teams are inexperienced in the playoffs but have the statistical markings of legitimate Finals contenders. The Thunder in particular stand out in this regard, despite their youth—like the Celtics, the Thunder rank in the top five on both offense and defense, which is historically the mark of a top-tier contender.</p>
<p id="BEu8Vg"><strong>4. More intrigue lies further down in the Western Conference standings:</strong> The top 10 teams are mostly decided by this point, but the order in spots five through 10—and the scramble to avoid the play-in rounds—remains up in the air. Here are those six teams’ average win totals, according to the Odds Machine’s simulations, and their chances of landing in the play-in.</p>
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<p id="fdLO9o">The Pelicans look like they’ll create some separation, but the order behind them is as murky as ever. This next chart further splits the play-in odds between the 7-vs.-8 matchup (which gives teams two chances to win once to qualify for the playoff field) and the 9-vs.-10 matchup (which requires teams to win two games in a row). </p>
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<p id="uWGqts">Golden State has been <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024_standings_by_date_western_conference.html">stuck in ninth place or below</a> every day since mid-November, yet a hot streak and an easy remaining schedule mean the Warriors have about a 60 percent chance to break into the top eight, at least.</p>
<p id="KBdNKd"><strong>5. In the Eastern Conference, the no. 2 and no. 3 seeds are nearly set in stone:</strong> The Bucks and Cavaliers both have better than an 80 percent chance to finish second or third, in either order, with Milwaukee slightly favored to grab the no. 2 spot. But it probably doesn’t matter all that much which team wins that race for second, to secure home-court advantage in a potential second-round matchup; the more important part is that finishing second <em>or</em> third means avoiding the Celtics until the conference finals.</p>
<p id="EJpkWQ"><strong>6. The middle of the Eastern Conference standings is much wilder:</strong> Four teams are sitting on the exact same number of losses through Wednesday’s games. Here’s the Eastern version of the chart showing the average win totals and play-in odds for fringier contenders:</p>
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<p id="l8vli0">Three of these five teams will automatically advance to the playoffs, while two will in all likelihood finish in the no. 7 and no. 8 spots and have to qualify via the play-in.</p>
<p id="rLEE61">The Magic and Heat hold two narrow advantages for now. First, both Florida teams are much healthier than the reeling Knicks and the Joel Embiid–less 76ers. And second, both the Magic and Heat will enjoy easier remaining schedules than their rivals in the standings.</p>
<p id="s0bHWz"><strong>7. The back of the Eastern Conference play-in race is less compelling:</strong> It’s even more depressing than before because of how many injuries it now involves.</p>
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<p id="4D2ut9">Even though Trae Young is out for at least a month due to a torn ligament in his hand, the Hawks’ three-game lead over Brooklyn gives them the advantage to hold the East’s no. 10 seed. Meanwhile, Scottie Barnes’s broken hand just about puts an end to Toronto’s chances of catching up.</p>
<p id="ya8D0O"><strong>8. Finally, the bottom of the standings features a race for the best chance to land the no. 1 pick: </strong>As a reminder, the flatter lottery odds mean that the three worst teams in the league will all have an identical 14 percent chance to pick first in the draft this summer.</p>
<p id="6drGkT">The Wizards and Pistons are near locks to finish with bottom-three records, but the third spot is up for grabs. Right now, the Hornets have two more wins than the Spurs, but better underlying numbers for San Antonio suggest that order might flip by the end of the season. The Odds Machine projects the Hornets to finish with 19.0 wins on average; the Spurs are at 19.5.</p>
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<h3 id="MxQ3qn">
<br>Zacht of the Week: 16 Consecutive Losses (Again)</h3>
<p id="oZ5lk2">The trend of long losing streaks this season has continued. A few months after the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/12/27/24016213/detroit-pistons-losing-streak-nba-history">Pistons lost a league-record 28 straight games</a> (at the same time that the Spurs lost 18 in a row), Washington lost its 16th consecutive contest on Wednesday.</p>
<p id="wPtGoM">Since securing their only winning streak of the season in late January—a whopping two-gamer, with wins over those Pistons and Spurs—the Wizards haven’t won a single game. Their last win came a day after the AFC and NFC championship games.</p>
<p id="ezXXCm">This isn’t the first season with three different losing streaks of such length. The 1993-94 Mavericks, who finished with a 13-69 record, had three separate streaks of at least 16 games all by themselves! (At least all that losing landed them the no. 2 pick and Jason Kidd.)</p>
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<p id="qLIWcp">Most of the previous examples in this chart involved either recent expansion teams or repeat offenders, like those ’94 Mavericks. Not 2023-24, though—this season’s losing comes with no such caveats, only largely unwatchable basketball. And if the Wizards reach 18 losses in a row, the 2023-24 season will be only the second ever—along with 1981-82—with three 18-game streaks.</p>
<p id="glyZh8">This collection of awfulness produces some remarkable statistics. For instance, even if you removed the Pistons’ 28-game losing streak from their ledger, they’d still be only 9-24, which converts to a 60-loss pace over 82 games. In other words, Detroit would be threatening the worst record in the league in a normal season even if it hadn’t suffered a record-setting losing streak.</p>
<p id="IWXF4t">And the Wizards might be even worse! On the one hand, Washington has suffered from a horrendous schedule during its losing streak: Every single opponent during this stretch has had a winning record. On the other hand, Washington has benefited from the best opponent shooting luck during its streak, as opposing shooters have hit <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-shots-closest-defender-10?CloseDefDistRange=6%2B+Feet+-+Wide+Open&DateFrom=01%2F31%2F2024&LastNGames=0&dir=A&sort=FG3_PCT">only 35 percent</a> of their wide-open 3-pointers, the lowest mark in the league—yet the Wizards have <em>still</em> lost every game.</p>
<p id="tPy4hK">Washington’s streak should end soon, if only because the Wizards’ schedule lightens up considerably with upcoming games against the Hornets and injury-ravaged Grizzlies. But keep an eye on their game scheduled for March 29, just in case the streak continues that long: That would be loss no. 28 in a row for Washington, in a matchup against—who else—Detroit.</p>
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<h3 id="MiX4dv">
<br>Take That for Data: When Iso Ball Works</h3>
<p id="XUGUd6">Isolations have never been the most efficient play in basketball. Other play types leverage motion, spacing, and man advantages into open looks; isolations force a player to beat an up-close defender without help from their teammates. </p>
<p id="4SXRPG">Some players are so skilled, of course, that they can routinely translate those opportunities into points. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/isolation?dir=D&sort=PERCENTILE&SeasonYear=2023-24&PerMode=Totals&SeasonType=Regular+Season">most efficient isolation team</a> in the league is the Thunder, who average 1.07 points per iso, according to Synergy data on NBA.com. SGA knows he can torch opponents one-on-one, so he turns to this route a lot; the Thunder rank fifth in isolation frequency.</p>
<p id="NcqqxM">Or players like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, whose frequent forays have helped Dallas to the second-best isolation scoring mark in the league, at 1.06 points per iso. The Mavericks also rank second in isolation frequency. Or players like James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, teammates who are all prolific mano-a-mano scorers. The Clippers rank third in isolation efficiency, at 1.05 points per iso, and lead the league in attempts.</p>
<p id="790IMF">In sum, the three most efficient isolation teams all rank in the top five in isolation frequency, and the two other teams in the top five—the 76ers and Celtics—also score at an above-average rate out of this play type.</p>
<p id="DgUiHh">This relationship epitomizes a broader truth about modern basketball: One reason that offenses are better than ever is that offenses are <em>smarter</em> than ever and thus better equipped to lean into their strengths or steer away from their weaknesses. The teams that can isolate effectively do so; the teams that can’t don’t. Isolations are like <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/12/2/20991249/post-up-dead-nba-brooklyn-nets-joel-embiid">post-ups</a> or <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/12/7/22821023/nba-shot-quality-midrange-kevin-durant-brooklyn-nets">midrange jumpers</a>—for most players, they don’t produce easy points, so only the very best still have the freedom to engage.</p>
<p id="XrnHOW">The most iso-heavy teams this season share another common trait: They generally built rosters to spread the floor with shooters around their iso-happy stars. The Thunder, Clippers, and Celtics all rank among the top four teams in 3-point accuracy this season, which makes it easier for drivers like SGA and Jayson Tatum to get downhill.</p>
<p id="3stPzW">And looking forward to the playoffs, these teams’ ability to generate tough buckets could prove even more valuable. Against locked-in playoff defenses, offenses are forced to rely more on isolation possessions. </p>
<div id="Jtv4sc"><div data-anthem-component="table:12272120"></div></div>
<p id="yzrsOY">Over the past three years, isolation frequency has increased by about a third in the playoffs compared to the regular season—even when controlling for the kind of team that plays and advances in the postseason. The above chart calculates a regular-season average weighted by number of playoff possessions; if we instead compared the playoff average to the overall regular-season average, the increase would be even larger, at 42 percent.</p>
<h3 id="Y5wmhz">Fast Breaks</h3>
<p id="o8El4X">Let’s wrap up today’s Session by hopping around the league to highlight four players who have caught my eye with their recent performances.</p>
<h4 id="JPmEG0">1. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat </h4>
<p id="o8e4VC">Forget paying attention to Punxsutawney Phil—you know that springtime is almost here because Butler has awoken in Miami. </p>
<p id="SZ6zoR">Through Butler’s first 30 games this season, up through January 25, the Heat playoff hero was averaging only 21 points, five rebounds, and four assists per game on 49 percent shooting. But in his past 12 contests, Butler’s at 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists per game on 56 percent shooting (including 53 percent from distance). </p>
<p id="Btko2f">Over that stretch, <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?CF=PTS*GE*24.5:REB*GE*7:AST*GE*6&DateFrom=01/27/2024&dir=A&sort=PTS">the only players</a> to average so many points, rebounds, and assists aside from Butler are Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic. </p>
<p id="oiKwVY">Butler’s hot streak coincides with his team’s surge up the standings: Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games (some of which Butler missed), with its only losses coming in close games against Boston and Denver. The Heat, as ever, lurk as a playoff threat.</p>
<h4 id="pypo5v">2. Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans</h4>
<p id="8SRuhW">Point Zion looks great, Herb Jones has developed a jumper (44 percent from 3!), and the roster is finally healthy. But there’s one more reason that the Pelicans are 11-4 since suffering a three-game losing streak at the end of April, with a top-five <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/traditional?DateFrom=01%2F31%2F2024">winning percentage</a> and <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateFrom=01/31/2024&dir=A&sort=NET_RATING">net rating</a> in that span. </p>
<p id="2VbCyx">Murphy is the rare two-way talent on a roster populated mainly by offensive stars and shutdown defenders. And the third-year wing has started playing much more of late. Through mid-February, Murphy had played at least 30 minutes in just three games all season. But starting on February 14, he eclipsed 30 minutes six games in a row, and he fell short of 30 in his last two games only because the Pelicans were cruising to blowout wins.</p>
<p id="PsLcvf">Murphy doesn’t start when the Pelicans are at full strength, but he’s a vital member of the roster. He’s explosive around the rim, effective beyond the arc (38 percent this season, 39 percent in his career), and disruptive on defense. New Orleans has a <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612740/onoffcourt-summary?dir=D&sort=ON_NET_RATING">net rating</a> of plus-10.5 when he’s on the court this season; among the team’s rotation players, only Jose Alvarado rates better by that metric.</p>
<h4 id="63PRUv">3. Josh Hart, New York Knicks</h4>
<p id="BuzWYq">I’m sorry, Knicks fans—since <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/1/24057663/new-york-knicks-mikal-bridges-trade-idea-evan-mobley-kram-session">I claimed on February 1</a> that this was the “best Knicks team in 30 years,” the team has gone just 5-9. “It would be a shame—and, tragically, all too fitting for the franchise—if the best Knicks team in 30 years were derailed by injuries,” I wrote, before injuries did indeed send this team off the rails.</p>
<p id="ED0qip">But not all is lost in New York, especially if OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson return soon. (Julius Randle’s injury timeline seems less defined.) And the silver lining of this stretch, if one exists, is that it has allowed role players like Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein to take on bigger roles that could benefit them down the line, once they fall back down the roster’s pecking order.</p>
<p id="xkUu5H">Hart in particular is a recent standout. Typically a fill-in-the-gaps glue guy, he’s adjusted to his heavier burden with aplomb: Hart has scored in double figures in seven consecutive games, while—in Thibsian fashion—playing 40-plus minutes every time.</p>
<p id="3eCR1g">Even more impressive is Hart’s rebounding, as he grabbed 37 boards across two games (!) last week. A 13-point, 19-rebound, 10-assist triple-double from a player listed at 6-foot-4 is a thing of beauty. Hart <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?SeasonSegment=Post%20All-Star&dir=A&sort=REB">ranks eighth</a> in rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Everyone ahead of him is a center; <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?Height=LT%206-7&SeasonSegment=Post%20All-Star&dir=A&sort=REB">nobody</a> shorter than 6-foot-7 is within even three rebounds of Hart’s average over that span.</p>
<h4 id="GDHafj">4. Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls</h4>
<p id="0NUnXB">Dosunmu offers another silver lining in a dreary situation, this time in Chicago, where Coby White’s emergence as a lead guard was just about the only positive for a team headed straight for another play-in berth. </p>
<p id="FZj877">Dosunmu has always had speed and athleticism on his side, but a shaky shot meant he looked destined for a bench role long term. His ceiling looks a lot higher now: Dosunmu was a 34 percent 3-point shooter across his first two seasons, but he’s up to 40 percent on greater volume this season. </p>
<p id="NhBy7u">Almost all of that improvement has come in the past two months. Through his first 38 games this season, Dosunmu averaged eight points and two assists per game while making 35 percent of his 3-point attempts. In 22 games since, while playing more minutes, he’s doubled his averages to 16 points and four assists per game while shooting 45 percent from distance.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="wpeQjs">A good rule of thumb in NBA analysis is to never get too excited about a shooter’s hot streak (or, conversely, too dispirited by a slump). Dosunmu might soon crash back to earth. But White hasn’t, and he and Dosunmu look like a fun, young, exciting backcourt tandem of the future. Imagine—fun and youth and excitement in Chicago! The Bulls need the spark that Ayo provides.</p>
<aside id="hQ9q55"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside>
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/7/24092881/nba-playoff-projections-championship-odds-takeaways-kram-sessionZach Kram2024-02-29T09:37:46-05:002024-02-29T09:37:46-05:00The G League Isn’t Just for NBA Long Shots Anymore
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rlEB2H_ZiWzIivhzktxaxvaSt78=/36x0:901x649/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73172789/nbagleague_getty_ringer.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>A record 18 of last summer’s 30 first-round picks have played in the NBA G League this season, following the developmental path of breakout players like Jalen Johnson and Peyton Watson. Why are more top prospects taking this route? And what does it mean for the future of the G League?</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="d8msij">Before Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson was an NBA Most Improved Player candidate, before he blossomed into a <a href="https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rankings">top-75 player</a> and an <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105020-nba-trade-rumors-trae-young-jalen-johnson-are-hawks-only-untouchable-players">untouchable trade target</a>, he “didn’t really see the vision” in his team’s development plan for him.</p>
<p id="Bwv6Hc">The no. 20 pick in the 2021 draft, Johnson debuted in garbage time on opening night of the 2021-22 season, but he didn’t exceed five minutes in any game for two months. And why would he have? Atlanta was coming off a conference finals appearance; Johnson was just 19 years old with <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/30907855/freshman-jalen-johnson-opts-remainder-duke-season-begin-preparation-nba-draft">half a college season</a> under his belt; and the Hawks were already well stocked at the forward positions, with John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, and Cam Reddish all ahead of the rookie on the depth chart.</p>
<p id="GdthiG">So even though the Hawks were excited about Johnson’s potential, they sent him 10 miles down the road—to the home of the College Park Skyhawks, their G League affiliate, to get him more playing time. Years later, Johnson recalls his initial confusion about the move. “When you’re 19 coming in, you’re not used to that type of thing,” he says. “You don’t really see the big picture. You just get drafted, all your friends are, you know, ‘NBA! NBA!’ so you’re not really thinking about the G League.”</p>
<div class="c-float-right c-float-hang"><aside id="yedZ9X"><q>“The interest and awareness of the teams [now versus then] is very different. When I was in Reno, we practiced out of a public fitness center, where many of our teams now have private facilities that they train out of. It’s night and day.” —Shareef Abdur-Rahim</q></aside></div>
<p id="wE0vHm">But unlike in Atlanta, where he couldn’t crack the Hawks rotation, Johnson thrived on the lower level of the NBA ladder. During his rookie campaign, Johnson played 760 minutes in the G League, versus just 120 in the NBA. He scored 21 points per game for the Skyhawks, with 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks, and gained the two-way confidence that paved the way for his eventual breakout on the NBA stage.</p>
<p id="j0wR1C">“I grew up, I matured, and I understood and really took advantage of it as I went along in the season,” Johnson says. “Sometimes you’ve got to wait your turn, you’ve got to be patient. … It’s helped me tremendously, so I’m glad it went that way.”</p>
<p id="2RmBmg">Johnson is far from alone with this sort of story; rather, he’s a member of a growing cohort of promising players who have cut their teeth in the NBA’s developmental league. At least half of the first-round picks in each of the last three drafts have spent time in the G League as rookies. </p>
<p id="ioBnO8">This season, 18 of last summer’s 30 first-round picks, including six of 14 lottery picks, have played in the G League. Both figures are records for the NBA’s minor league. (The semi-recent dip in this graph is because many G League teams canceled their 2020-21 seasons due to the COVID-19 pandemic.)</p>
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<p id="GPwVy0">The G League–to-NBA pipeline is expanding, not only for <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/16/21566647/nba-undrafted-alex-caruso-duncan-robinson">undrafted NBA hopefuls</a> but also for touted prospects who need just a little more seasoning. The rewards for a successful transition are profound.</p>
<p id="1UmhBI">“I’m here because of the G League,” says Derrick White, now a near-All-Star for the Celtics, formerly a first-round pick who helped the 2017-18 Austin Spurs win the G League championship. </p>
<p id="D9vGGu">Enough players like White have traveled this route that it would now be easy to build an excellent roster composed exclusively of first-round picks with at least five games of G League experience:</p>
<ul>
<li id="Q84B8S">PG: Derrick White</li>
<li id="AXiz8z">SG: Dejounte Murray</li>
<li id="v6Tlj1">SF: Jalen Johnson</li>
<li id="U0IkAU">PF: Pascal Siakam</li>
<li id="vkttqc">C: Rudy Gobert</li>
<li id="Arp4ye">Backup: Tyus Jones</li>
<li id="EaPIF7">Backup: Dennis Schröder</li>
<li id="ltRBda">Backup: Terry Rozier</li>
<li id="Qdd7Os">Backup: Trey Murphy III</li>
<li id="KaFQjn">Backup: Jonathan Kuminga</li>
<li id="fWsSA0">Backup: Robert Williams III</li>
<li id="s76E4G">Backup: Clint Capela</li>
</ul>
<p id="j76dmZ">“I think it’s changed from being a league full of guys that were overlooked and nobody appreciated to being a league of burgeoning stars,” says Shareef Abdur-Rahim, the former NBA All-Star who now serves as the G League president.</p>
<p id="9IQDab">But why now? What was the impetus for more teams to start using the NBA’s little sibling as a staging ground for their first-round picks? And what does that philosophical shift mean for the G League’s future?</p>
<p class="p--has-dropcap" id="c2AKJy">The NBA’s current minor league was born in 2001, after the effective collapse of the old Continental Basketball Association, but for well over a decade, it existed mainly on the periphery of the NBA map. </p>
<p id="838I3c">“In theory, the NBA’s own Development League was designed to function as a sort of R&D lab for players too green for showtime. That’s not how it played out,” super-agent Arn Tellem <a href="https://grantland.com/the-triangle/d-league-deconstruction-the-necessary-plan-to-fix-the-nbas-farm-system/">wrote</a> in a 2015 column. Instead, Tellem wrote, “The NBA outsources nearly all of its minor leagues to college basketball and Europe.”</p>
<p id="yHaOdz">This pattern placed the G League in minor-league limbo. On one end of the player-development spectrum is MLB, in which <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/feats/feats9.shtml">only two rookies</a> since 2000 have debuted without first playing in the minor leagues. (And one of those players skipped only because baseball’s minor leagues didn’t have a season in 2020.) On the other end is the NFL, which doesn’t even have a minor league and often sees rookies turn into major contributors right away; <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/EFT61">48 first-year NFL players</a> started more than half their team’s games in 2023.</p>
<p id="nyp24b">For most of its existence, the NBA hewed closer to the NFL’s model. In 2005-06, according to data provided by the NBA, only 4 percent of players on opening night rosters had any G League experience. And in 2007-08, the first season with G League statistics on NBA.com, not one of the top 20 picks from the previous draft made any G League appearances. (The league was called the D-League, short for Developmental, until 2017, when a partnership with Gatorade precipitated a change. We’ll stick with “G League” throughout this piece for consistency’s sake.)</p>
<p id="7Trik6">Even midway through the 2010s, the G League was notable less for its players than for its experiments, like the <a href="https://grantland.com/features/nba-dleague-rgv-vipers-houston-rockets-future-of-basketball/">3-point-heavy approach</a> of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and numerous rules changes that received an audition at the lower level. The laboratory-like league was smaller, with fewer teams directly owned by NBA franchises. Even those G League squads that were one-to-one affiliates didn’t tend to be well integrated into their parent teams. “People weren’t tracking it very closely,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle says. </p>
<aside id="mO2U58"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The 2023-24 NBA Rookie Rankings","url":"https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rookie-rankings"},{"title":"Grading Every NBA Team’s 2023-24 Season So Far","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/26/24080028/nba-season-grades-lakers-celtics-knicks-warriors"},{"title":"It’s Been 30 Years Since the NBA’s Last Quadruple-Double. Will We See Another Soon?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/22/24079101/nba-quadruple-double-david-robinson-victor-wembanyama"}]}'></div></aside><p id="9GUdcD">G League rosters were populated mostly by long shots and undrafted players; if a first-rounder was ever demoted, it was typically one who had been picked near the end of the round—and thus joined a loaded NBA roster—or was already trending toward bust territory. Meanwhile, G League coaching staffs were tiny and overworked. Developmental plans were one-size-fits-all rather than specialized for each prospect. Even if they wanted to, it was difficult for front offices to watch games online. </p>
<p id="pXLyiD">For the players, the NBA’s minor league was a difficult place to develop. “It wasn’t really attractive,” says Windy City Bulls guard Keifer Sykes, who first played in the G League in the 2015-16 season. “The money wasn’t good. The facilities weren’t good. The resources weren’t good.”</p>
<p id="Bi6eiN">Fast-forward to 2024, and the money is better, the facilities are swankier, and the resources are much more elaborate. NBA teams are now investing in the G League as they realize its potential for player development, which savvy clubs like the Heat and Spurs have known for years. By next season, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/phoenix-suns-nba-g-league-4c7c4bcdb1b34dcb94b264c11da9f568">all 30 franchises</a> will own or operate a G League affiliate.</p>
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<p id="zrY86u">At the same time, the introduction of two-way contracts—now up to three per team—has convinced talent that might have otherwise gone overseas to stay in the U.S., and thus boosted the G League’s level of competition. “On a nightly basis, it could be anywhere from five to 10 actual NBA players, including with the two-ways, on the floor. So the talent level is at an all-time high,” Sykes says.</p>
<p id="9AVOYA">More concerted effort and attention from parent clubs have led to an improved G League experience across the board. Abdur-Rahim first engaged with the league as the general manager of the Reno Bighorns, who were connected to the Sacramento Kings, in 2013-14. “The interest and awareness of the teams [now versus then] is very different,” the G League president says. “When I was in Reno, we practiced out of a public fitness center, where many of our teams now have private facilities that they train out of. It’s night and day.”</p>
<p id="YAwNvR">Players say they also benefit from better nutrition, more attention in the weight room, and improved accommodations on road trips. These changes require some financial commitment from NBA clubs, but not a massive one. “It’s <em>not</em> very expensive to run a decent development org down there,” says an executive for an NBA team. </p>
<p id="1Rlund">Just as important is building the infrastructure between different levels of the organization. Bigger coaching staffs allow for more individualized attention, and executives say that they function best when they include members with previous experience in the parent NBA organization. This devotion of manpower is also relatively new at the G League level.</p>
<p id="iELNE8">“We realized it’s hard to give the players all the attention and everything they need with a limited amount of bodies,” Windy City Bulls coach Henry Domercant says. “If you’re doing the scouting, but you’re still packing the shoe bag and you got to help with the laundry and then drive the bus to drive them home, then you can only help with so much.”</p>
<p id="M6rN8g">The ultimate outcome of these lower-level changes is a broader strengthening of the G League’s once tenuous connection to the NBA. A record 50 percent of players on opening night rosters this season had previous G League experience.</p>
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<p id="ds1GJk">Where once people weren’t paying much attention to player performance in the G League, Carlisle says that now, “there’s eyes on them every time they step onto a basketball court, whether it’s in our practice facility, whether it’s [in the NBA], or whether it’s in Sioux Falls playing against another G League team.”</p>
<p id="e4kOrL">Carlisle and assistant coach Lloyd Pierce have printed-out, side-by-side schedules for the Pacers and Indiana Mad Ants that they use to plan out when they can send their first-round rookies, Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard, down to the G League for more playing time. Then Pierce will review their minutes when they return to the Pacers.</p>
<p id="tWG7TQ">That level of integration of first-round picks like Walker and Sheppard is standard across teams. “The communication for those players is especially significant,” Domercant says. “We are reporting [to the parent team] after every game or after every week, and that goes from the weight room to on-court to practice, how many extra shots they’re getting. We try to be as detailed as possible.”</p>
<p id="lwxM3i">The result isn’t just a transformation of the G League itself, but an expansion of developmental pathways that scarcely existed before—and that are helping the NBA’s youngest players adjust to life in the pros.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Grand Rapids Gold v Windy City Bulls" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9uuDv_R3tEfR-bSdOM0EGy2mTYc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25311186/1245692419.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski/NBAE via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Peyton Watson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="p--has-dropcap" id="lZitqJ">Who better to sing the virtues of the G League than Gregg Popovich, the winningest NBA coach of all time and, coincidentally, one of the first to embrace the minor league as a rehearsal space for first-round picks?</p>
<p id="SeY9Ic">“It’s a lot better to go down there and get 30 minutes than to sit on the bench and be the 12th guy and play every fourth or fifth game for a few minutes,” Popovich says. “So, it’s pretty logical.”</p>
<p id="EVhsn1">Beyond the broader changes to the G League itself, other contextual factors make it a more attractive option for young players to gain vital on-court experience. For instance, less practice time in the NBA means more need for hands-on instruction. And two-way contracts haven’t just elevated the G League’s talent level, but also removed an excuse to keep young players on the end of NBA benches. A member of a front office notes that before the introduction of two-ways, teams might have kept their young players in the NBA to have enough bodies in case of injuries or blowouts. Now, though, teams can turn to two-way players in those circumstances, freeing their longer-term, higher-ceiling prospects to go to the G League for guaranteed playing time.</p>
<p id="ESWZBd">And once they’re there, the G League offers a convenient midpoint for players transitioning from college to the NBA—especially those who enter the draft after their freshman or sophomore years. This involves adjustments to both the physicality and speed of the professional game and literal rule changes at the NBA level, like the deeper 3-point line. </p>
<p id="Zk8l3j">“I knew coming in that I was going to do stints in the G League and play a few games here and there, and it was something that I embraced and was looking forward to,” says Peyton Watson, who was picked 30th in 2022 as a freshman out of UCLA and was traded to the Nuggets on draft night. “If you’re a rookie and you’re just getting your feet wet and there’s not a lot of opportunity for you on the bigger squad, then why not go down there, play against pros, and get live reps?”</p>
<div class="c-float-left c-float-hang"><aside id="G16oyT"><q>“It’s a lot better to go down there and get 30 minutes than to sit on the bench and be the 12th guy and play every fourth or fifth game for a few minutes. So, it’s pretty logical.” —Gregg Popovich</q></aside></div>
<p id="CXHU9R">Like Jalen Johnson, Watson played much more as a rookie in the G League than in the NBA. Unlike Johnson, Watson watched his NBA team win a title—mostly from the bench. All 14 of the young wing’s playoff minutes last spring came in garbage time; he’d gone from first-round pick to G Leaguer to human victory cigar.</p>
<p id="FF66Sc">But Watson has blossomed in his second season as a reserve, filling in for departed veteran Bruce Brown. He’s a fierce defender and an improving shooter. And he credits his time in the G League for helping him reach the level where he can contribute, at 21 years old, to a team with championship aspirations.</p>
<p id="WNmqbh">“A lot of guys look at the G League like a demotion, but that’s not the case,” Watson says. “You’re going down there to work on your game, you’re going down there because your team has a specific development plan for you, and I think that’s really good.”</p>
<p id="l5K8DI">The <em>specific development plan</em> is key. As Cody Toppert, now the Wizards’ G League coach, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/16/21566647/nba-undrafted-alex-caruso-duncan-robinson">told me</a> back in 2020, G League development should be “based on what roles these guys would have to fill at the next level. You don’t necessarily want to be the G League’s leading scorer.”</p>
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<p id="jdMgod"><br>Teams have communicated that distinction to their players. I’ve talked to a number of rookies who are splitting their time between the NBA and G League this season, and none of them pointed to scoring as their main area of focus at that level. The goal for Gradey Dick, picked no. 13 by the Raptors, is to improve his passing vision. Walker, picked no. 8 by the Pacers, is working on his 3-point shooting. Sheppard, the no. 26 pick for Indiana, was told to improve his defense and “show that I can guard a lot of different positions at a high level.” (One locker over, veteran T.J. McConnell interrupts to joke that Sheppard needs this developmental plan because “you can’t guard your own shadow.”)</p>
<p id="zcfOuT">Even Cam Whitmore, the G League’s <a href="https://stats.gleague.nba.com/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Combined&CF=GP*GE*5">co-leading scorer</a> this season (minimum five games played) and a breakout bucket getter for the Rockets, had to prove his grasp of advanced defensive schemes with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers in order to earn playing time in Houston. Rockets coach Ime Udoka said of Whitmore earlier this season, “He’s not going to have the ball every time with us [on the Rockets], so we send him there to work on specific things, and that’s what we’re monitoring more than the scoring output. … We’re looking at his defense, his rebounding, making the right play.”</p>
<div class="c-float-right c-float-hang"><aside id="AtWPIY"><q>“If you’re a rookie and you’re just getting your feet wet and there’s not a lot of opportunity for you on the bigger squad, then why not go down there, play against pros, and get live reps?” —Peyton Watson</q></aside></div>
<p id="rozJ0r">G League experience also helps players gain intangible attributes that power them at the next level. “A lot of it was mental,” Watson says of his improvement as a rookie. “Just going down there and getting the minutes, getting the reps, getting the confidence. It meant the world to me because when I came back up to the NBA, I had been playing against pros.”</p>
<p id="HXtl6C">One crucial mental aspect of a G League assignment is feeling comfortable with what might seem like a demotion. Even with general league trends pointing toward more developmental time, personality still plays a role in a player’s reaction to a G League assignment. “We have our scouts ask any intel source before drafting a player, ‘Would this guy be willing to go to the G League? How would he handle it?’” a team executive says.</p>
<p id="20mZah">Coaches and front office staff agree that a large aspect of a proper G League developmental plan is personality management. “Organizations have learned over time how to create the messaging for the players around ‘This is better for you’ and getting their agent on board,” the executive says. </p>
<p id="kg4POB">That process might involve sending assistant GMs to watch a G League game in person, or to otherwise check in on the player to show that they care. Sometimes, the executive adds, “it’s as simple as texting the player after the game, ‘Hey, I watched your minutes from last night, I really liked your decision-making, keep working’ to make them feel like they’re not on an island.”</p>
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<p id="BqVLKv"><br>The sheer number of assignments now also makes this an easier transaction for a young player to stomach. Getting sent to the G League isn’t an individual punishment for poor play; it’s as simple a matter as following the crowd.</p>
<p id="wY5Uyw">“Most of the whole draft class’s first round is in the G League, so it’s nothing new,” Whitmore says, adding that he maintains regular contact with his fellow rookies who “keep coming back and forth.”</p>
<p id="MuJc3x">“My boy Cam!” Dick lights up when asked about his friendship with other rookies in his position. “When your boys are doing that and you’re kind of doing it together, it’s cool to see. … You feel like you have someone to relate to and you can talk to so many people about it.”</p>
<p id="qYFbtr">It also helps to look up to role models who have parlayed their G League experience into successful NBA careers. Dick says that he talked to Raptors teammate Pascal Siakam—before the latter’s midseason trade to Indiana—because Siakam was also a first-rounder who spent time in the G League, en route to All-NBA stardom. Dick remembers the advice that Siakam gave the young shooter: “You can’t go in there and try to act like it’s negative, because that’s the worst thing you can do for yourself. [You can’t] go in there and try to act like you’re bigger than you actually are.”</p>
<p id="rSAt8M">Dick was a lottery pick who a decade earlier would almost certainly have spent his entire season with the Raptors in the NBA rather than playing against the Delaware Blue Coats and Capital City Go-Go. Yet, spurred by the precedent of players like Siakam, Dick—who’s on a scorching hot streak in NBA play over the past month—says that he accepted his G League assignment wholeheartedly. “It’s not anything negative at all,” Dick says. “If I have the chance to get developed at this age, then I’m going to take it.”</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Delaware Blue Coats v College Park Skyhawks" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pDKYvfdwdW3uW_fqopvUjm1gegQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25311182/1236719879.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Jalen Johnson playing for the College Park SkyHawks</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="p--has-dropcap" id="fOKakb">Much like the Johnsons and Watsons of the NBA, I also wanted to make the most of my G League assignment; I’d done the research and compiled the statistics, but I also sought to experience the sights and sounds of this level of professional basketball. So earlier this month, I attended two Windy City Bulls games, about 45 minutes west of Chicago.</p>
<p id="9UoLJN">The casual atmosphere in Windy City’s NOW Arena is reminiscent of lower-level baseball leagues—an unsurprising connection, as Abdur-Rahim says the G League has consciously studied and adopted minor league baseball’s business practices and promotional strategies. On the floor behind one baseline is a dining area with cafeteria-style tables and a buffet. Behind the other is a “Fun Zone” for young fans, age 12 and under, featuring inflatable basketball hoops and a miniature obstacle course, which remains packed throughout both games.</p>
<p id="WjNhGo">The “Fun Zone” is just one element of an experience heavily geared toward kids. Halftime entertainment is provided by elementary school dance troupes rather than professionals like Red Panda. Other youngsters line up to receive bull-shaped hats from a balloon artist. One fan wears an Henri Drell jersey with a “Looney Tunes” label, from Windy City’s <em>Space Jam</em> theme night in January. </p>
<div class="c-float-right c-float-hang"><aside id="Qa7Skz"><q>“Part of my mission is if one of my players gets an opportunity [for the Chicago Bulls] … they know the plays, they know the sets, they’re comfortable in the system. I think that’ll give them a better chance to stick.” —Henry Domercant, Windy City Bulls coach </q></aside></div>
<p id="QG67l8">The event’s most symbolic moment comes during pregame introductions. During the announcement of the Windy City starting lineup, the loudspeakers play a version of “Sirius,” the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/13/18082986/oral-history-chicago-bulls-introduction-michael-jordan">classic Bulls anthem</a>—before pivoting into a mashup with Don Diablo’s up-tempo “Switch.” A G League game is close to an NBA contest, but it’s also its own separate thing.</p>
<p id="qWxtZb">And yet, despite the vast differences in pageantry and ticket price and jumbotron size, the actual gameplay is not <em>that</em> dissimilar from what I see on a regular basis in the NBA.</p>
<p id="Rs7t6S">The games are definitely sloppier: The G League has a higher turnover rate than the NBA and noticeably less offensive flow from one possession to the next. But just like their NBA counterparts in the modern era, G League teams focus on spacing the floor. They aim to run in transition. They navigate pick-and-roll defense with the same basic principles.</p>
<p id="xPF8To">This stylistic similarity is intentional, coaches and players say, to better prepare prospects for the jump to their parent teams. “Maybe we don’t do everything exactly the same, but we’re a ‘dumbed down’ version or a shell version. If they’re going from A to Z, we may go from A to P,” Windy City coach Domercant says about the similarities between his system and Billy Donovan’s in Chicago. “Part of my mission is if one of my players gets an opportunity [for the Chicago Bulls] … they know the plays, they know the sets, they’re comfortable in the system. I think that’ll give them a better chance to stick.”</p>
<p id="rie9A2">I ask how Domercant handles a strange dynamic of his role as a G League coach: If Domercant is successful at his job in helping to develop a player, he might never coach him again. Domercant laughs and responds, “I rejoice when they go. I celebrate.”</p>
<p id="DGF99r">The Windy City coach adds that sometimes, people tell him it must be tough for a G League roster when its parent club recalls a two-way player or talented rookie who had been developing in the minor league. But a winning record at the G League level is “not the goal. Our goal is to develop the guys that can help the big team.”</p>
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<p id="5KoMpa"><br>(Incidentally, the list of “guys that can help the big team” increasingly includes coaches, in addition to players. Seven of the league’s 30 current head coaches, including a former Coach of the Year, Nick Nurse, and the top two betting favorites for the award this season, Mark Daigneault and Chris Finch, gained experience in the G League coaching incubator before taking control of an NBA bench.)</p>
<p id="eAHIDp">That subservient relationship will inherently limit the G League’s growth potential. Abdur-Rahim says his hope is for the G League to continue to gain fans and to expand internationally, with teams taking trips to play opponents in Europe and Asia. (The G League is already international in league play since the Mexico City Capitanes joined in 2020.) In an interview this week, he echoed commissioner Adam Silver’s <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39548967/adam-silver-nba-reassess-g-league-ignite-wake-nil">comments</a> that the league would “reassess” the G League Ignite program, which before the introduction of NIL policies in college athletics provided an avenue for pre-draft-eligible players to be paid to play.</p>
<p id="JmvBvD">But even if the Ignite prove to be short-lived, the league has still managed to open a new developmental path for many young players. The NBA will never—and should never—reach MLB’s level, with a multitiered minor league system that essentially every player traverses en route to the top level. It wouldn’t make sense for a prospect like Victor Wembanyama to play in the G League, even if the no. 1 pick <a href="https://twitter.com/jmcdonald_saen/status/1747054403880734968">says</a>, “I like to be threatened to be sent to the G League if I don’t play the right way.”</p>
<p id="gmJ4i6">Other than Houston’s Amen Thompson, the no. 4 pick last summer who played two games in the G League this season, only one top-five pick in the NBA.com database played in the minors as a rookie: Hasheem Thabeet, the no. 2 pick in 2009 and a notorious bust. (Thabeet’s demotion came after the Grizzlies <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/news/story?id=4946483">tried to off-load him</a> in a trade, even though he was only halfway through his rookie season.)</p>
<p id="ZzfskY">But with the exception of the very top picks, the development path for first-rounders has changed. The old model has been demoted and doesn’t seem likely to receive a call-up anytime soon. Team executives predict there could be even more G League assignments next season, due to what is widely perceived as a weak draft class.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="jTdX5j">“If the guy can play, they will play in the NBA,” an executive says, enunciating a long-standing truth of pro basketball. “But just because you know so little about these players and how they’re going to fit, the assumption will always be ‘This guy’s going to have to at least start the season in the G League and then prove it.’”</p>
<aside id="Fz9jI5"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside>
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/29/24086372/g-league-rookies-first-round-picks-jalen-johnson-peyton-watsonZach Kram2024-02-23T08:27:05-05:002024-02-23T08:27:05-05:00The Action Isn’t the Best Part of Netflix’s ‘Avatar: The Last Airbender’
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/x4g7yZw_uBPz3tVXwzqZd-DHlaM=/67x0:1134x800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73158981/AvatarsQuietMoments_Netflix_Ringer.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Netflix/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fight scenes in the latest live-action adaptation of ‘Avatar’ can’t rival the original’s, but the new show shines in its focus on character </p> <p id="zvxMrQ">Netflix’s live-action remake of <em>Avatar: The Last Airbender</em> deserves credit for this: It’s much better than the movie adaptation. Much, much better. M. Night Shyamalan’s derided interpretation of the beloved three-season animated series earned a 5 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes and placement on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_considered_the_worst">“List of Films Considered the Worst”</a> Wikipedia page. It produced “action” scenes like this: </p>
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<p id="klmUmH">Right away, the new Netflix series (all eight episodes of which were released on Thursday) proves it better understands the appeal of the Nickelodeon classic. <em>ATLA</em> takes place in a world in which characters with magic powers can control, or “bend,” one of four elements—water, earth, fire, and air—except for the singular Avatar, who has the ability to master all four. It follows Avatar Aang, his journey with Water Tribe siblings Katara and Sokka, and their attempt to defeat the imperialist Fire Nation.</p>
<p id="wNanV4">With a reported $120 million budget—<a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/2/1/24058037/percy-jackson-and-the-olympians-disney-adaptation-season-1-finale">in line with</a> other CGI-heavy shows like <em>Percy Jackson and the Olympians</em> and <em>The Mandalorian</em>—the Netflix show looks better than Shyamalan’s movie. And compared to the previous live-action attempt at an <em>ATLA</em> remake, the Netflix version’s action scenes are more propulsive, on a bigger scale. A sequence featuring Kyoshi, a famed Avatar from history (and also the subject of <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2022/12/23/23523700/nerd-culture-recommended-reading-guide-science-fiction-fantasy">an entertaining, canonical book</a>), is particularly gripping.</p>
<p id="Kayukd">However, the new show runs into the same problems that plague so many live-action remakes of originally animated properties: Live action—even expensive, CGI-heavy live action—can never capture the same creativity and freedom as animation. Animation’s lack of physical constraints is one reason for the glory of the <em>Spider-Verse</em> films and <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/11/10/23954838/scavengers-reign-max-episodes-review-underrated-shows-2023"><em>Scavengers Reign</em></a>; it’s also the driving force behind the animated <em>ATLA</em>’s remarkable fight scenes.</p>
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<p id="EiYUlv">Nothing in the Netflix show approaches the sense of motion and power that pops in <em>ATLA</em>’s animated duels. That’s not the Netflix team’s fault; it’s just a matter of the medium. But it’s ironic that for a show that was presumably green-lit to give the streamer a big-budget, action-heavy franchise, the action scenes are relative weak points. The remake’s worst episodes are also its most fight heavy: the pilot and the finale. </p>
<p id="pT5CFS">The Netflix show shines, conversely, when it gives its plot time to breathe and its characters time to develop. Incidentally, this is the area that sparked the greatest concern among fans in recent weeks, due to some of the creators’ press tour quotes, like showrunner Albert Kim’s <a href="https://www.ign.com/articles/the-big-netflix-avatar-the-last-airbender-producer-interview-this-is-a-remix-not-a-cover">assertion</a> that they “decided to make Aang’s narrative drive a little clearer,” or the <a href="https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/netflixs-avatar-the-last-airbender-sokka-sexism-toned-down-1235890569/">revelation</a> from the actress who plays Katara, Kiawentiio, that the new show “took out the element of how sexist [Sokka] was.” </p>
<aside id="53uZhq"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Netflix’s ‘Avatar’ Isn’t as Bad as We Expected or as Good as We Hoped","url":"https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/2/22/24079652/avatar-the-last-airbender-netflix-live-action-review-aang"},{"title":"‘Avatar: The Last Airbender’ Still Has Many Lessons to Teach","url":"https://www.theringer.com/tv/2020/5/15/21259676/avatar-last-airbender-netflix"}]}'></div></aside><p id="F1mIsX">Such sentiments suggested that the new adaptation might be disregarding the dynamic character development that ran through the original series. Regarding the latter quote, fans pointed to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVqCb32FOvM">the Season 1 sequence</a> in which Sokka underestimates, and then learns from, Suki and her Kyoshi Warriors as an example of when his misogyny fueled his growth.</p>
<p id="kYgtcr">But rest assured, character is still a central focus of the Netflix show. Sokka is one of the highlights of Season 1, and his interactions with Suki are sweet and touching even though they don’t sprout from the seed of sexism. Instead of using that character flaw as the basis of Sokka’s growth, the show instead leans into other elements (no pun intended) of his psyche, like the clash between his sense of duty as a warrior and his passion for engineering and strategy.</p>
<p id="piOBUB">Beyond his early sexism, moreover, much of Sokka’s development in the Nickelodeon series centers on his sense of imposter syndrome: He’s a member of Team Avatar and a non-bender surrounded by powerful benders. The Netflix remake addresses this insecurity head-on:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="1dqf6m">Sokka: You’re not even a bender, and you’re the fiercest fighter I’ve ever met.</p>
<p id="ZU4pI7">Suki: Not being a bender means we have to be even better than benders. We can’t reshape mountains and burn forests, so we have to fight with what we have. What matters is not the power inside. It’s the will and desire. The heart.</p>
</blockquote>
<p id="dYNnrL">Other smaller, more zoomed-in character interactions are further highlights of the season. The relationship between exiled firebender Prince Zuko and his uncle Iroh accounts for the best arc in the entire original series, and it’s off to a worthy, emotional start on Netflix. Actor Dallas James Liu, who plays Zuko, is especially wonderful as the conflicted, vengeful prince.</p>
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<p id="kkZOPm"><br>The season’s sixth episode, “Masks,” neatly encapsulates this aspect of the series’ strength. The episode bookends a big action set piece with quieter character moments that reveal more about Zuko’s backstory and his relationship with Aang. Netflix certainly spent more money on the action. But those story developments prove more thrilling, even though it’s centered on conversations instead of a bending display.</p>
<p id="i2O7OL">Not every character translation works as well. Aang seems flatter than his supporting cast—notably, throughout the entire season, he never tries to learn to waterbend, in direct contrast to the Nickelodeon version, which titled Season 1 “Book One: Water.” (As the titular “last airbender,” Aang already knew how to airbend, so the original show followed a logical pattern: Season 1 to learn waterbending, Season 2 to learn earthbending, and Season 3 to learn firebending, thereby mastering all four elements.)</p>
<p id="Fc8JCu">“It would’ve been wise to have focused on your training during your journey,” a crotchety waterbending master scolds Aang during the penultimate episode of the new series. He’s right—both in terms of Aang’s in-universe sense of duty, and from a meta storytelling perspective.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><div id="FkSF5O"><div data-anthem-component="aside:11489171"></div></div></div>
<p id="rrgWE4">The switch to a Netflix-style season structure also produces an interesting dilemma. The remake condenses 20 Nickelodeon episodes into only eight Netflix episodes, as part of television’s <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/2/20/24077826/true-detective-night-country-six-episode-season-length-imdb">broader adoption</a> of shorter seasons. However, because the animated episodes ran half an hour with commercials, while the Netflix episodes range from 47 to 62 minutes without commercials, the total season running time is about the same. </p>
<p id="H2pAKh">The result is something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, having more minutes per episode allows the characters to spend more time on Kyoshi Island, which grabs the viewer because all of the scenes with Suki are so engaging.</p>
<p id="Q7BEvY">At other points, however, the reduced episode count hampers the show’s world-building efforts. For example, the contents of three separate Season 1 episodes from the animated show that take place in disparate places all converge on Omashu in the Netflix version. This change makes logistical sense given the writers’ constraints, but it makes the <em>ATLA</em> map seem smaller and less developed.</p>
<p id="LJeJ7l">Part of the fun of the original was the breadth of the world, which was full of not only bustling cities but also smaller villages and outlying hamlets, all populated by a variety of characters going about their lives. In Netflix’s telling, though, almost every character seems to be either a bending warrior or directly involved in the plot.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="Mx0sob">Of course, if viewers want to learn more about the <em>ATLA</em> world and see more of its characters, all they have to do is click over to another tile on the Netflix homepage, where the original animated version already resides. That show combines intense action <em>and</em> stunning animation <em>and </em>phenomenal characters <em>and</em> inventive world-building. It’s the master of all four elements, while the Netflix version, like its depiction of Aang, is still comfortable with only one.</p>
<aside id="DjARRK"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"ringer_newsletter"}'></div></aside><p id="JeuXOH"></p>
https://www.theringer.com/tv/2024/2/23/24080169/avatar-the-last-airbender-netflix-action-fight-scenes-charactersZach Kram2024-02-22T07:56:25-05:002024-02-22T07:56:25-05:00It’s Been 30 Years Since the NBA’s Last Quadruple-Double. Will We See Another Soon?
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>There are several reasons for the league’s quadruple-double drought—and one giant reason it may soon come to an end</p> <p id="OhiLhw">Last week in the NBA was important for two related reasons. The first came on Monday, February 12, when Victor Wembanyama, the league leader in blocks, recorded a 27-point, 14-rebound, 10-block triple-double in Toronto. The second came on Saturday: the 30th anniversary of the NBA’s last quadruple-double, recorded by David Robinson.</p>
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<p id="A8fGLW">It shouldn’t take an advanced statistician to connect those two factoids. The quadruple-double is among the rarest statistical accomplishments in NBA history, with only four officially on record. (There would probably be more, from the likes of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, had the NBA started recording blocks and steals before the 1973-74 season.)</p>
<ul>
<li id="hNvsim">Nate Thurmond in 1974: 22 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and 12 blocks</li>
<li id="OzvLUS">Alvin Robertson in 1986: 20 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals</li>
<li id="h7lMLS">Hakeem Olajuwon in 1990: 18 points, 16 rebounds, 11 blocks, and 10 assists</li>
<li id="99TfQ7">David Robinson in 1994: 34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 blocks</li>
</ul>
<p id="Guuc8V">We are currently witnessing the greatest triple-double boom in NBA history. Before 2016-17, the highest leaguewide triple-double total in any season was 78, back in 1988-89. But in each of the past seven seasons, the NBA has reached triple digits in triple-doubles, and it’s easily on pace to continue that streak in 2023-24.</p>
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<p id="uc0jns">Yet even amid this context, the NBA’s fifth quadruple-double still hasn’t emerged. But Wembanyama has emerged—not only as the best overall prospect in decades, but also as the best candidate in decades to match Robinson, his predecessor as a no. 1 pick for the Spurs. </p>
<p id="Giv4Ky">A quadruple-double candidate requires the skill of a specialist (with the ability to nab 10 blocks or steals in a game) in the body of a generalist (with the talent and flexibility to stuff the rest of the stat sheet). Alongside all his other hyperbolic traits, just half a season into his career, Wembanyama already looks the part.</p>
<p id="j9hH4J">Quadruple-doubles were always scarce, but now they’re even more unlikely because of a leaguewide decline in outlier defensive performances. From 1985-86 through 1999-2000, at least three players averaged three-plus blocks per game in every season but one. But since then, there have never been more than two such players in a season; since 2005-06, there’s never been more than one.</p>
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<p id="OpepRP">A reduction in block averages naturally corresponds with a reduction in extreme single-game performances, which means a decrease in the frequency of already rare quadruple-double opportunities. There have been only 35 games in the 21st century in which a player recorded double-digit blocks or steals—only about 1.5 per season. </p>
<p id="hGRhxs">And the vast majority of those games came from defensive specialists with little chance of accruing the necessary statistics in the “standard” triple-double categories to reach a quadruple-double. Most players capable of 10 steals in a game are small guards like T.J. McConnell who would struggle to reach 10 rebounds; most players capable of 10 blocks are tall centers like Hassan Whiteside who have never come close to double-digit assists in any game in their careers.</p>
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<p id="UwZSwc">Analyzing the top individual candidates to achieve a quadruple-double—before Wembanyama entered the league, at least—underscores the inherent improbability of such an accomplishment. </p>
<p id="7UUepA">Anthony Davis seems like a great choice: He has a 10-block game on his résumé and is a far more skilled offensive player than Whiteside. Yet even the Lakers center doesn’t have the ideal all-around game to regularly reach the double-digit assist total he’d need for a quadruple-double. In 712 career regular-season games, he’s tallied 10-plus assists just twice, meaning it’s very slim odds that he would have combined those performances with his 10-block outburst. Conversely, Davis has 30 games with at least six blocks in his career, and he’s surpassed five assists in just one of those 30 contests:</p>
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<p id="wge1mv">Davis does have three triple-doubles in his career, including two with 11 assists apiece this season. But while he’s now passing more, Davis might no longer have the same ceiling for blocks that he did as a younger player: The now-30-year-old hasn’t reached eight blocks in a game since January 2020.</p>
<p id="M09q5J">Draymond Green is another candidate in his 30s. Green is infamously the only player in league history to record a non-points triple-double, when he tallied four points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals in a <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201702100MEM.html">win over the Grizzlies</a> back in 2017. Had Green only shot the ball more in that game, he would have secured a quadruple-double. </p>
<p id="TKz5w0">Yet Green also seems unlikely to recapture that magic in a single game again. He hasn’t reached eight blocks or steals in any game since that night in Memphis seven years ago.</p>
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<p id="3IphNh">A younger option is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an offensive savant who doubles as the NBA’s steals leader this season. He might be the best non-Wembanyama option for a quadruple-double in the league. Yet at least for now, SGA has never surpassed seven steals (or four blocks) in any game, which means he’s never come that close to the total he’d need.</p>
<p id="U1aMjp">Gilgeous-Alexander’s statistics emphasize the particular difficulty of approaching a quadruple-double via the steals route, instead of with blocks. An average NBA game contains more steals than blocks, but steals are more evenly distributed across a roster while blocks are more concentrated among the big men protecting the paint. SGA is the only qualified player this season averaging at least two steals per game, while eight players are averaging at least two blocks.</p>
<p id="faY13J">Once again, these averages track with extreme single-game stats. In the 21st century, there have been six times as many 10-block games as 10-steal games (30 versus five) and about five times as many nine-block games as nine-steal games.</p>
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<p id="hKSiV0">In the interest of completeness, let’s quickly run through 10 more top active candidates for a quadruple-double, beyond Davis, Green, and Gilgeous-Alexander: the seven <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/trp_dbl_active.html">active triple-double leaders</a> plus three of the league’s brightest two-way stars. Here are their career single-game highs in blocks and steals:</p>
<ul>
<li id="CkLyGv">Russell Westbrook: four blocks, eight steals (but no more than five since he left the Thunder)</li>
<li id="3BTl7E">Nikola Jokic: five blocks, seven steals</li>
<li id="twbtKj">LeBron James: five blocks, seven steals</li>
<li id="llweQ7">James Harden: five blocks, eight steals (but no more than five since he left the Rockets)</li>
<li id="UrmJZ2">Luka Doncic: four blocks, five steals</li>
<li id="zMW5on">Domantas Sabonis: four blocks, five steals</li>
<li id="3RqXlq">Giannis Antetokounmpo: seven blocks, five steals</li>
<li id="oLMiCC">Joel Embiid: seven blocks, five steals</li>
<li id="aVtAeL">Jimmy Butler: five blocks, seven steals</li>
<li id="dO82jn">Bam Adebayo: six blocks, six steals</li>
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<p id="R9oTYM">Aside from Westbrook and Harden, who are well past their physical peaks, none of these 10 players have ever collected eight blocks or steals in a game. Even the list’s excellent defenders have never come close to double digits in either category.</p>
<p id="gPnH5X">The likes of Giannis and Adebayo or younger stat stuffers like Scottie Barnes and Jalen Johnson might be decent bets for <em>10 blocks and steals in a game combined</em>, and thus a five-by-five night—five each of points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals—at some point. (Five-by-fives <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/OXddB">occur once every few years</a>, on average, though the last was Jusuf Nurkic’s in 2019.) But they’re not specialized enough to reach <em>10 blocks or steals alone</em>.</p>
<p id="8A1Qlo">Wembanyama, however, clearly is. He’s already shown proof of concept, with 10 blocks in a game and regularly high totals despite limited minutes in many more. Convert all his box scores to a per-36-minute basis, and in just 49 career games, the no. 1 pick would have already reached nine blocks or steals <em>four times</em>, or once per month:</p>
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<p id="aSMoHY">It’s possible that Wembanyama already missed his best chance at a quadruple-double, when he tallied only five assists against the Raptors last week. It’s not a guarantee that a rookie who swats 10 shots in a game will do so again.</p>
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<p id="vx07Wh">But Wembanyama looks a lot more like Robinson and Dikembe Mutombo than Josh Smith. Barring injury, it would frankly be a surprise if he never reached 10 blocks again. So his quest for a quadruple-double is merely a matter of timing those blocks alongside a 10-assist game.</p>
<p id="r7LImG">Once more, Wembanyama has already proved this ability, as he secured a conventional triple-double—with 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in only 21 minutes in Detroit—a month before his block-aided one. Wembanyama’s development as a passer separates him from Chet Holmgren, another strong rookie candidate to post outlier block totals. Holmgren already has a game with eight blocks and two with seven blocks; he seems due for double digits at some point. But where Wembanyama is afforded more responsibility to <em>initiate</em> plays in San Antonio, Holmgren primarily <em>finishes</em> plays in Oklahoma City, where he shares the court with much better guards.</p>
<p id="OpdS2o">To be fair, the two rookie centers are separated by only 0.5 assists per game. But there’s a much larger gap between Wembanyama and Holmgren in <em>potential</em> assists, per NBA Advanced Stats—which suggests that an improvement in teammates who convert his passes into buckets could give Wembanyama a much bigger boost in assists.</p>
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<p class="c-end-para" id="QgcN4x">In theory, we might have to wait a little while for the Spurs roster around Wembanyama to improve. But at his current trajectory, a legitimate quadruple-double attempt might not be far off. He’s already followed Robinson in a couple of respects. Why not add another to his list and budding legacy? </p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/22/24079101/nba-quadruple-double-david-robinson-victor-wembanyamaZach Kram